NBA 2nd Round Series Predictions 2019

So a little late, but the way the NBA starts rounds early even if other series still have to finish just annoys me.  I took into account games that have already occurred, and here are the series odds and the stat profiles for the teams involved.  The program still likes the Rockets to be able to pull out their series, thanks largely to the fact that game one was very tight, and the Rockets being such a good team at home. It also is still big on the Bucks, but if they come out like they did the other night at home I don't think they have any chance of getting past Boston, and might actually get swept out of this series.  The Nuggets have a tall task ahead of them to get past the Blazers, but if Murray can still hit his shot as he did in the latter half of the San Antonio series this one will be very tight as well.

Golden State Series Wins: 37.2%

Houston Series Wins: 62.8%

Average Games Needed: 7

Denver Series Wins: 35.4%

Portland Series Wins: 64.6%

Average Games Needed: 6

Philadelphia Series Wins: 29.9%

Toronto Series Wins: 70.1%

Average Games Needed: 6

Boston Series Wins: 21.6%

Milwaukee Series Wins: 78.4%

Average Games Needed: 6

 

Legion Battle Report: Krennic vs Leia and Jyn

This past weekend finally got a chance to break out our Legion stuff again. We decided to play with all the new stuff we have gotten since our last matchup (maybe in January?) which meant running Jyn and pathfinders for my Rebel opponent, while I took Krennic and a set of Death Troopers into the field.  Mine was a super mish-mashed list with just about all the one off units I own.

Director Orson Krennic 90
Improvised Orders, Esteemed Leader
Snowtroopers 48
Flametrooper, Snowtrooper, Fragmentation Grenades,
Stormtroopers 44
DLT-19 Stormtrooper, Stormtrooper, Fragmentation Grenades,
Stormtroopers 44
DLT-19 Stormtrooper, Stormtrooper,
Stormtroopers 44
DLT-19 Stormtrooper, Stormtrooper,
Stormtroopers 44
DLT-19 Stormtrooper, Stormtrooper,
Imperial Royal Guards 75
Electrostaff Guard, Tenacity,
Scout Troopers (Strike Team) 16
DLT-19x Sniper, Hunter, Grappling Hooks,
Imperial Death Troopers 76
DLT-19D Trooper, Overwatch, E-11D Focused Fire Config, Fragmentation Grenades, 

It certainly is not the best list but it provides plenty of activations, some area control and some very hard hitting ranged units.  My opponents list was Jyn and Leia, with three groups of Z6 rebel troopers, a sniper team, the FD turret and two units of pathfinders.

Sadly, my camera decided to eat my photos of the game, but I'll give the text recap here.

Our scenario ended up as Repair the Vaporators, Long March and Clear Conditions. Long March ended up being a real pain point for me because of how the board was set.  When we had set the board up we really set it for the long sides being deployment areas.  This meant a nice big building of blocking terrain In the middle and plenty of it to provide cover to advance In the short direction.  In essence my side for Long March ended up having much less cover going forward. 

Deployment saw me drop just about everyone on a small hill behind the building to give as much line of sight blocking as possible and give the light cover the hill would provide.  My snipers were deployed semi on a hill further from me to give some extra line of sight but also hide them from his Snipers. I place one Vaporator in the middle of the board, behind the building and the other range 2 away and a bit in the open closer to myself. My opponent dropped his on a rock formation and behind a tree in the opposite side. He deployed Leia and a trooper squad near the far Vaporator. Two more Z6 squads were deployed in the middle and the Snipers and FD turret were near the edge closest to me, with the Snipers on a high rock formation. His pathfinders and Jyn both dropped in just on the other side of the building. 

Turn 1 saw him play Coordinated Bombardment and I played Voracious Ambition. I want to try and make sure I could let my own snipers take a shot before potentially getting wiped out right away. I was able to get a shot on and kill a pair of troopers near Leia. Bombardment killed a stormtrooper, the spotter from the Snipers and missed it's last shot. The rest of the turn saw everyone slowly moving forward but I was still trying to keep sniper fire to a minimum and keep the pathfinders from wiping out an activation. Turn 2 he played Rebellious while I just played a generic command 3 card. We cautiously moved around each other as I moved up to the middle Vaporator and he shuffled a pathfinder unit out into the open on the side away from me.  This is what ended up changing the game, as at the start of turn 3 i was able to blast that Pathfinder group out of existence with a bit of luck.  He had full Danger Sense dice from the previous round me getting a small shot off, and Duck and Cover.  But a Stormtrooper unit blew them away with a great Aimed roll causing 6 hits, and my opponent whiffing on all 10 defense dice.  The game wasn't over, since I still needed to move up to my second vaporator and he had fully damaged both of his.  The looming threat though of those pathfinders being relived though allowed for a bit more of an advance from me. 

Turn 4 gave me that opportunity to get forward, as my opponent turtled up a bit.    It allowed me to get a unit of storm troopers onto the second vaporator, and move my sniper into a spot to kill his sniper's spotter.  Essentially it left those units to be whomever activated first would kill the other one off.  I also was able to refresh my death troopers and nearly wipe out a Z6 squad with the long range weapons, and suppressing them to the point of being stuck.  This was doubly important since that squad was the one that could easily reach the Stormtroopers at the Vaporator.   He had countered though by knocking off almost all of the Snowtrooper unit and rendering them useless for anything besides hiding behind the building for the rest of the game.  Krennick also took several shots, but most of the damage was passed off with Esteemed Leader and the Royal Guards' Guardian.  Turn 5 I played Annihilation Looms, effectively locking down the board from units being able to reposition.  I killed his Sniper luckily, and then eliminated the last of the one trooper squad to secure killing off the most units.  I lost a ROyal Guard mini to guardian on a Krennick shot later on, but the rest of the turn went without me losing too much, and my opponent conceded after that due to not being able to get into position to kill enough units without losing his own to catch up on points. 

The game overall was a bit of a slog.  The terrain set up really hurt my list from being able to get forward at all, and the IRG was effectively just used as a meat shield for Krennick.  The Death Troopers were exceptional in their role as long range deterrent, and the refresh action wasn't necessarily the worst with Overwatch also there to help make sure standby could go off.  I'll likely play this list again on a different ma, where maybe there's a bit of better cover to get some of the units forward.

Vacation Story: Panama Canal

One of the biggest draws of our trip was traveling through the Panama Canal.  This marvel of human ingenuity took roughly the whole day.  While not necessarily overly exciting at every moment, the knowledge that you've passed through one of the greatest achievements of humanity.  The fact that the lochs still function essentially the same as they did in 1914 is just amazing.  Its also interesting to note that the Pacific side, the loch walls are thicker and doubled up due to the more violent tides.  I've got a few videos from the trip that I though caught some of the coolest sections of the Canal.  If you get a chance it is definitely a spot worth going through.  The first is a time lapse of us lowering in the canal to get an idea of how far down you travel.  The second is going through the canal near the control area, and the last is of the lochs emptying out.

Panama Rolls

One of the large cargo ships making the trip with us

What should the Broncos do about Chris Harris?

The Broncos currently face a dilemma with Chris Harris.  His current hold out seeking a new extension casts a bit of a shadow over what is a pretty exciting time in Dove Valley.  The Broncos must now decide whether to commit to the shut down corner for the long term, or perhaps be prepared to trade him if the dispute gets ugly. 

The arguments against signing Harris are fairly easy to identify.  Harris will be 30 before the season begins, and time is undefeated in catching players.  While 30 might still be on the young side, a deal that reaches in Harris' mid 30s might see Denver overpaying for the production they are getting.  The follow on argument is just exactly ho much cap space the Broncos want to commit to the secondary over the next several years.  Both Kareem Jackson and Bryce Callahan signed lucrative deals this offseason, and the pair with Isaac Yiadom will eat up over 23 million dollars in cap space.  Adding another 14 to 16 million might be a bit too much for one positional group.

However, both of these arguments, while warranting concern, are risks that are minimal.  Chris Harris' game relies more on anticipation and a superb knowledge of what an offense is doing.  While losing a step will hurt, its not the most important asset he has.  It should mean any drop offs will be minimally impactful.  It has also helped that Harris has been relatively injury free in his career, leaving no lingering injury fears.  In 2020 the only safety on the roster will be Su'a Cravens currently.  Kareem Jackson though has fluidly played both corner and safety, so the plan might be to roll him there.  This helps to lessen the cap space spent at corner to a point where its roughly the same as this season.  If Jackson plays safety this year primarily it actually strengthens the case for re-signing Harris as well, to ensure there is solid depth.

Overall, the loss of Harris would be pretty devastating to the Broncos defense.  While there are some options in the draft, that forces some compromises for a roster that needs several depth players already.  Its also impossible to bring the ability Harris has demonstrated throughout his career.  You never want to pay for past performance, but Harris has repeatedly shown he's an elite corner.  In the roughly 4 years, 50-65 million dollar range depending on guaranteed total.  This gives Denver some troubles in 2022 when most of the current roster if off the books, but it also guarantees a top tier player to be there through any turmoil.

Vacation Story: Costa Rica

Our next stop on vacation took us to Costa Rica.  The verdant place is just an amazing stop, for both its history and just how wonderful the forests are.  Here we traveled to the Else Kintzler Garden and the Sarchi Ox Cart factory.

The Gardens were a roughly hour and a half long drive from port, which was fine.  Our guide gave a brief overview of the country, and his time as a coffee picker in his youth.  It was not nearly as informative I thought as our guide in Nicaragua, but he was still an affable fellow.  One highlight of the bus ride had to be the discussions about cashews.  Its a popular crop in Costa Rica, but almost all of our group thought it was like a peanut.  Nope, it comes from a tree with a huge fruit attached.

After our long ride we arrived at the Botanical Gardens.  It was a pretty beautiful walk through, and we saw
some beautiful flowers and a little waterfall.  It was quiet and peaceful in the garden, a perfect spot for contemplation.  At the end, there was a chance to release some Butterflies which we took and amazed our daughter with.

 After the butterflies we traveled to Sarchi, a small mountain town where they still make Ox Carts the same way they have been for hundreds of years.  The carts were once the most common way to get the coffee from the mountains where it grows to the coats for sale.  The carts are still used by some people today,  but are mostly decorative.  They are hand painted and are an amazing site to see.

This was a pretty solid excursion, with the only downside being the long bus rides. 

Denver Broncos Draft Needs Ranked

With free agency all done, its now time to focus in solely on the draft.  Denver did well to patch some big holes, but there's still a lot of spots that could use help. Overall, the strategy this year in such a weak top end QB class, should be to try and trade back and acquire more picks for this year and next.  The Broncos have a lot of good talent, but a lot of spots are only one or two guys deep along the trenches, and at some other key spots.  This is the year to fix the depth holes and either make a run with Flacco, or be prepared for a new QB next year. 

Interior Offensive Line
For the Broncos this year, it all comes down to improving the offense.  The QB position got a lift, and a new offensive coordinator should help.  But nothing is going to get going if the interior is a sieve like it was last season.  Matt Paradis is gone, and Ronald Leary is over 30 and recovering from a torn achilles.  Mcgovern played well at guard last year, but was a disaster at Center, allowing 22 pressures in eight games once he took over the job.  He has also struggled in tough yardage situations quite a bit through his career.  The Broncos drafted Sam Jones as a developmental player last year, and Elijah Wilkinson provides a bit of opportunity to play Guard or tackle, but shouldn't be starting.  Especially with Flacco now at QB, someone who does not move exceptionally well, Denver needs to get better here. 

Defensive Line
The Broncos currently have 6 players listed on OverTheCap playing on the line.  Only Zach Kerr and Demarcus Walker are signed past the end of this year.  That could potentially leave some big holes, and the team already has some depth issues as Derek Wolfe has been a good player but has struggled with injuries the last few years.  At current Denver should likely have a line of Wolfe-Harris-Gotsis to start with Kerr and Walker rotating. But Denver could stand to add another player that can play Nose to allow for a better mix overall, and provide some depth in case Denver can't get everyone re-signed.

Tight End
Going along with fixing the offense, one of the biggest components of the Shannahan style is a dynamic Tight End.  Its been a staple of the play action game, and Joe Flacco has always been able to get the ball to tight ends as a favored target.  The roster currently has Jeff Heurmann, Troy Fumigali and Jake Butt along with a few more camp bodies.  All three players have now missed significant amounts of time in their young carers, and probably should not be counted on.  This class is deep with tight ends, but Denver likely needs to spend a bit of a premium to get someone that can be a reliable target for years to come.

EDGE Depth
The Broncos have lived and died on their ability to generate pressure with their EDGE guys.  Von Miller is one of the best in the league, and the Broncos spent a top five pick on Bradley Chubb who looked very good.  Losing both Shane Ray (who had been disappointing) and Shaq Barrett though as quality depth players hurts this group a lot.  Jeff Holland made an appearance last year and was good during training camp, but Denver needs more.  This might be a position to double dip at to try and get the best value.

Inside Linebacker
This need is probably quite a bit lower than most folks have it, but Denver has some solid players here.  Josey Jewell played well as a rookie, and has better short area mobility than many folks give credit for.  Todd Davis might have made the jump from a role player to a legitimate starter last year.  And Elway spent quite a bit of cash signing Alexander Johnson.  Again, the issue here is depth.  And while Jewell and Davis played well, they still struggled in coverage situations and Fangio asks a lot more of that from his interior backers.  Finding a rangier linebacker should be on the radar.

Swing Tackle
The Broncos solidified their right tackle spot by signing JaWuan James, but they lost out on Billy Turner who went to Green Bay for a better chance to start.  Denver likely needs to add some developmental depth here to insure for any injury.

QB
With the signing of Joe Flacco, this position is locked down for the year at least.  That doesn't mean Denver wont go after a guy they really like, but it also gives space to not have to spend a top ten pick on someone who isnt going to be the answer.  That doesn't mean though that Denver shouldnt try to add another player to the room though.  Someone on day three to develop and potentially back up for a few years is good value.  

Wide Receiver
Denver has currently four pretty good wide outs.  But, Emmanuel Sanders is heading into the last ear of his deal and is recovering from an Achilles injury.  Depth, and perhaps a true speed player should be added to help round out the group and improve the offense overall.

Secondary
This is an interesting positional group for Denver.  They added some big name free agents, and Chris Harris is likely to be re-signed.  Safety has two solid young players in Simmons and Will Parks, both of whom I think can be very good in a bot of a new system.  But just about the whole group are free agents after 2020.  This is a low need, but Denver could use a bit of a depth upgrade, and some insurance if Su'a Cravens is once again a let down.  However, this probably jumps up a bit if Harris' contract dispute lingers.

NBA Playoff Predictions 2019 First Round

Predictions and team charts for each of the first round matchups.  Program has most of the series going chalk, although the Pacers over the Celtics would be a welcome surprise.  The Jazz also find themselves in a tough battle with the Rockets, which might be a closer series than anyone is expecting.

Philadelphia Series Wins: 60.7% vs Brooklyn
Average Games Needed: 6

Toronto Series Wins: 66.1% vs Orlando
Average Games Needed: 5




Indiana Series Wins: 52.8% vs Boston
Average Games Needed: 7






Milwaukee Series Wins: 69.4% vs Detroit
Average Games Needed: 5


Golden State Series Wins: 71.8% vs LAC 
Average Games Needed: 4



Denver Series Wins: 61.5% vs San Antonio
Average Games Needed: 6






Houston Series Wins: 56.1% vs Utah
Average Games Needed: 6



Portland Series Wins: 61.5% vs Oklahoma City
Average Games Needed: 5