The Deshaun Watson chase: Greatest Reward/Risk acquisition

When a good Quarterback puts out a trade demand, it perks the attention of the whole league.  As Deshaun Watson's relationship with the Texans has apparently deteriorated to the point the young star desperately wants out.  This has of course set the tongues wagging for almost every fan base now at home watching the playoffs, including that of the Denver Broncos.  The acquisition of a 25 year old franchise QB who would be under contract for several years would immediately vault the offense into one of the league's most potent.  That could give Denver the edge they need to vault past the Chiefs and perhaps reign the AFC West again.  

Watson has essentially been a top 10 QB since his rookie year, where he threw for 19 TDs in just 6 starts.  He's thrown for 26 TDs every season since that point.  He's also thrown just 28 total interceptions across the last three seasons.  Watson this year even took bigger steps forward as a playmaker, without Deandre Hopkins as one of his targets.  He posted a career best interception rate as well as highs in essentially very other category.  Watson is a model modern QB, with a devastating arm backed up by good athleticism, with 444 yards this past season on the ground.  

With all the good Watson brings, it becomes easy to say just toss everything that the Texans want and get a deal done.  This however does not come without at least some risk.  The asking price for Houston is likely to be high, a minimum of three first round picks and an assortment of other top 100 selections.  The cost in picks might not be too high for a franchise QB, as long as Watson stays healthy.  He has been fairly rugged after his rookie campaign when he missed the second half of the season with injury, but he has taken a beating in Houston.  At one point, the team wouldn't let him fly because of the potential risk after suffering injuries to his chest and lungs.  And while he's been healthy since then, we've seen recently as Carson Wentz went from potential MVP candidate to likely backup after a freak back injury.  At that point, losing that many top 100 picks essentially sets the contention clock back four to five years because you're still missing a QB and now the other holes on the roster become bigger.  

The question the becomes is that risk worth the reward?  Denver is in a contention window.  The defense is very good, caveating the need to improve the corner back group.  But with a potential return of Von Miller and Justin Simmons, its still an upper tier unit.  And the offense with Watson would potentially become one of the league's best young cores.  Watson would also enjoy the much more solid Denver offensive line to the one in Houston that still has yet to gel.  Its probably worthwhile for Denver to see if they could pry Watson away, but if the price is more than the three future firsts (plus some seconds and thirds) the risk is likely too high that something could go wrong and the team is out of contention with little to hope of turning it around. 

Book Review: Vicious

 The #ReadICT challenge is back for another year, and the first category on the list was a book with a single word for the title.  After a brief search, Vicious by VE Scwabb became the choice.  I've enjoyed Schwabb's other series, Shades of Magic.  Schwabb does a good job of world building, setting up characters that have good depth in world's that give them difficult choices to make.  In Vicious, Scwabb explores a world where people with extraordinary powers exist.  A pair of college classmates attempt to find what gives people these powers, to try to find how to make themselves extra ordinary. The results of these experiments change their paths and many around them forever.  The story is tight, clocking in at a bit under 340 pages.  It is set between several characters, mostly the main pair of Eli and Vic.  The setting mostly revolves around a few days, with a lot of flashbacks to college and the previous months for both characters and their accomplices.  Its an enjoyable look into the darker side of superheroes.  Its not nearly as dark as The Boys, but it certainly gives a grittier look than most superhero work out there.  It did feel like the resolution came abruptly, but was still fulfilling. It had snuck up on me, and left me wanting a longer look into the work. Overall this is definitely a recommended book, and hopefully the next one will be just as enjoyable.  Four stars out of five.

NFL Havoc and Success Rates through Week 17

 The regular season has come to an end, and here is where every team ended up on defense and offense for havoc and success rates.  The Steelers defense essentially lead from start to end for creating havoc and limiting teams to stay on schedule.  The Packers limited their havoc all season, but the Bills were able to capture the Success rate crown, at 49.2% for the year. 

 

 

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders 2 Drive Stats and Recap

 The 2020 season ended with one of the better all around performances form the team, as the offense looked good and gained 53% of their potential yards, while the defense held the Raiders to just 37% of theirs.  But, it did come down to opportunities, as the Broncos had 4 turnovers forced and walked away on those drives with just 10 points.  Not hitting those opportunities is going to have to be something the Broncos must do next season, or things will stay just as rough as they have been. The defense played well almost all game, until the 4th when the depleted secondary just couldn't hold on any longer, allowing a pair of long scoring drives.

 Despite the result and some frustrations with scoring opportunities, this game was probably the best overall game the team has played this year.  Lock and Jeudy finally clicked, and the defense forced turnovers and held the Raiders down most of the day.  It showcased just how talented this team is overall, and that with a little bit of luck and bit of a talent infusion in the offseason this team can compete against anyone.  Its disappointing that the season is done, but it does mean its time to start focusing on the next steps for a team that has to make some headway next year.

 

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
LV	DEN	75	1	Punt	4	5.3	3
DEN	LV	72	1	Field goal	68	94.4	11
LV	DEN	75	1	Field goal	60	80.0	11
DEN	LV	75	1	Touchdown	75	100.0	10
LV	DEN	75	1	Turnover	10	13.3	2
DEN	LV	39	2	Missed field goal	2	5.1	3
LV	DEN	54	2	Touchdown	54	100.0	6
DEN	LV	75	2	Turnover on downs	37	49.3	12
LV	DEN	62	2	Punt	20	32.3	5
DEN	LV	96	2	Punt	20	20.8	8
LV	DEN	56	2	Touchdown	56	100.0	8
DEN	LV	75	2	Missed field goal	23	30.7	6
DEN	LV	75	3	Field goal	57	76.0	9
LV	DEN	75	3	Punt	-4	-5.3	3
DEN	LV	61	3	Punt	9	14.8	3
LV	DEN	95	3	Turnover	25	26.3	4
DEN	LV	37	3	Field goal	30	81.1	5
LV	DEN	75	3	Turnover	14	18.7	2
DEN	LV	34	3	Touchdown	34	100.0	6
LV	DEN	75	4	Turnover	6	8.0	3
DEN	LV	31	4	Punt	-8	-25.8	3
LV	DEN	90	4	Touchdown	90	100.0	9
DEN	LV	92	4	Touchdown	92	100.0	5
LV	DEN	75	4	Punt	19	25.3	8
DEN	LV	90	4	Punt	18	20.0	9
LV	DEN	77	4	Touchdown	77	100.0	10
DEN	LV	75	4	Missed field goal	30	40.0	2

 

NFL Havoc and Success Rates Through Week 16

 Heading into the final week, it looks like the Steelers defense is going to remain atop the leaderboard in havoc rate and success rate allowed.  They had a bit of a rough start this past week against the Colts, but tightened up in the 2nd half.  Whether it will be enough to drag their offense through the playoffs is another question.  

The Packers offense has also lead almost all season, but the Bills have taken the lead in success rate, with nearly half of their plays run being successful. 

 

Denver Broncos vs LA Chargers 2 Drive Stats and Recap

 The Broncos took another loss this week in a tight game, one in which the offense had several miscues at key times that left them just out of scoring.  Denver actually gained more potential yards than the Chargers, 55.3% to LA's just 35.2%.  A turnover in the maroon zone and a missed field goal though had Denver trailing 13-0 at half.  That inefficiency has plagued the offense all year, and through most of the game it didn't help that receivers dropped passes and losing KJ Hamler meant the loss of a versatile weapon.

 The second half saw the Chargers have just two of five drives gain more than half of their potential yards, but the second one was crucial after Denver had tied the game.  The defense allowed an 11 play drive to get into field goal range, and that would be the final defecit.

The team now looks to win a final game against the Raiders.  It will be the final look at the offensive young core, to give a hopeful glance to the future.

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
LAC	DEN	39	1	Field goal	20	51.3	5
DEN	LAC	87	1	Turnover	71	81.6	14
LAC	DEN	94	1	Punt	14	14.9	6
DEN	LAC	55	1	Missed field goal	36	65.5	10
LAC	DEN	73	2	Touchdown	73	100.0	9
DEN	LAC	81	2	Punt	7	8.6	4
LAC	DEN	65	2	Field goal	40	61.5	9
DEN	LAC	75	2	Punt	22	29.3	5
LAC	DEN	85	2	End of half	12	14.1	5
DEN	LAC	72	3	Punt	30	41.7	8
LAC	DEN	80	3	Punt	2	2.5	4
DEN	LAC	53	3	Field goal	41	77.4	7
LAC	DEN	75	3	Field goal	68	90.7	11
DEN	LAC	79	4	Field goal	48	60.8	8
LAC	DEN	69	4	Punt	9	13.0	3
DEN	LAC	72	4	Touchdown	72	100.0	11
LAC	DEN	88	4	Punt	-3	-3.4	4
DEN	LAC	58	4	Field goal	25	43.1	6
LAC	DEN	75	4	Field goal	56	74.7	11
DEN	LAC	75	4	Turnover	25	33.3	6