The regular season has come to an end, and here is where every team ended up on defense and offense for havoc and success rates. The Steelers defense essentially lead from start to end for creating havoc and limiting teams to stay on schedule. The Packers limited their havoc all season, but the Bills were able to capture the Success rate crown, at 49.2% for the year.
Heading into the final week, it looks like the Steelers defense is going to remain atop the leaderboard in havoc rate and success rate allowed. They had a bit of a rough start this past week against the Colts, but tightened up in the 2nd half. Whether it will be enough to drag their offense through the playoffs is another question.
The Packers offense has also lead almost all season, but the Bills have taken the lead in success rate, with nearly half of their plays run being successful.
The Steelers defense that had looked so good throughout the season suffered a real set back against the Bills this past week, especially in the third quarter as Josh Allen had a 90% success rate on his dropbacks. Washington though continues to string together impressive defensive performances, holding the 49ers to just 15 points this week.
On the flip side, the Bills now boast the highest success rate in the league, thanks in no small part to a nearly 8% explosive play rate, trailing just the Chiefs. The Packers continue to remain by themselves in not allowing Havoc, and their success rate is fourth best because of it.
We're through Week 13 now, and most teams are holding steady where they're at in the various rates. The Steelers continue to be the most disruptive defense in the league, which likely can explain why teams are generating success rates at the lowest rate against them. Interestingly, the Bills and Browns both are above average at creating havoc, but are still allowing teams to get on schedule with good success rates.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos are still being dragged down by week 12's disaster, as the Eagles have also struggled to stay on schedule and are hoping for a big boost by the move to bench Carson Wentz. The Bengals have seen a fairly dramatic rise in their havoc rate allowed without Joe Burrow, while the Packers continue to remain the best in the league at avoiding havoc.
This week was another weird week thanks to Covid, as the Broncos played without any QBs and the Ravens and Steelers almsot made it into Week 13 with their game. This week is really the first one that has skewed some of the season long results, as teams were able to log highs or lows for the season in Havoc rates.
Nothing too stunning this week, although the Dolphins have some interesting defensive splits. Thyeve been above average at creating havoc so far, but are also allowing teams to stay on scheduled at worse than league average rates right now. The Seahawks follow a similar beat, to a bit of a greater degree.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Not much to add this week, as the short Holiday week gives us the Lions and Texans along with Washington and Dallas. The big question will be if the Ravens can make any noise against the Steelers in the postponed game minus most of the backfield.
It would not have been almsot anyone's guess before this season that the Rams and Bills would be amongst the league leaders in Success Rate, but 2020 continues to surprise. Both teams lead the Chiefs, Saints and Pats so far in generating successful plays. The Rams are even more surprising, given their closer to league average Havoc Rate allowed. It also would not have been many folks bet that the Broncos would lead the league in Havoc Plays allowed, as the thought had been Drew Lock would make some strides and the offensive line would be improved with more experience on the left hand side and a reinforced right hand side. But 16.9% of their plays have ended in disaster, and it doesnt look to be getting better. Another team that has struggled a bit surprisingly: the Ravens. They're currently under 40% success rate and over league average in Havoc rate allowed.
Another week and the Steelers continue to post the best defensive efficiency numbers in the league. The Colts and Bucs continue to make big plays as well, and surprisingly the Giants defense has had struggles but has generated quite a bit of Havoc on their own.
We continue to see the Steelers creating a ton of havoc this season on defense, a big reason why they remain unbeaten. This past week against the Cowboys they defensed 5 passes and added 8 tackles for loss. The Colts and Bucs both are generating a lot of havoc as well, which is helping to limit offensive successful plays. On Offense, the Seahawks and Chargers have been two of the bets this year at staying on schedule, while the Packers have continued to stop havoc from happening to them.
Continuing the weekly tracking of Havoc and Success rates, some teams have been able to hang on to their top spots in their respective categories for the entire season. The Packers offense continues to maintain its edge at not allowing havoc, but the Cardinals have been steadily climbing the ranks and have allowed under 10% of their plays to be disrupted. Interestingly, both teams are below average at Success down rate, where the Seahawks and Bills lead.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers continue to disrupt fronts and shut teams down. They also leas the league in the lowest Success Rate, followed closely by the Bears , Bucs and Colts. The Washington team also has had some surprising success here, if only they could get their offense on track.
While Havoc rates tend to be big plays for defenses, offenses need to stay on schedule, which brings us to Down Success Rate. Essentially, on first down teams need to be gaining about 4 to 5 yards to have a good chance at pcikign up another set of first downs. Regardless of first down, on second down they need to get 60% of the remaining yards, and on third or fourth down they need to get them all. This metric was first develped by the folks at Footballoutsiders. The two metrics can tell us a lot about an offense or defense.
The Broncos were able to move out of last place for Havoc Rate allowed, barely edging out the Giants this week. As mentioned earlier this week, it was not a good one for the Broncos. Overall the Seahawks still trail the Packers in Havoc Rate allowed, but are nipping the heels and lead the league in Down Success Rate. Interestingly, the Bengals have allowed a lot of chaos, but have been close to league average for staying on schedule, meaning they're making chunk plays to get it back. Thats a team that is a candidate for stealing some games down the stretch.
The Steelers and Buc remain the leaders for top defensive performances so far, as both teams have caused havoc and have continued to keep teams off schedule. The Colts and Bears have also been pretty good at that next tier down, while the Titans have been pretty awful at keeping teams from chewing them up, especially the past two weeks.
