Wednesday, January 6, 2016

NFL Punters: Is there a difference

Watching the Broncos this season, one of the most oft heard complaints is about Britton Colquitt, the punter.  His average through the first fifteen weeks of the season was at 43.58 yards per punt, and Broncos fans were finding him lacking.  However, it bugged me that almost every qualifying punter in the league was averaging somewhere in the 40 + yards per punt region.  How much of difference can you truly glean from looking at the averages?

Using some data from the NFL Savant website, where they have gathered play by play data for the NFL this season, I pulled out every punt through week 15 and how far it traveled.  From there I computed the descriptives for each punter.  hen, performing an ANOVA test, I was able to conclude that there was in fact a difference amongst punter means.



ANOVA Results
Yardage

Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
F
Sig.
Between Groups
6578.996
31
212.226
2.749
.000
Within Groups
164029.928
2125
77.191


Total
170608.924
2156


 

 I also then tested for a difference in variances, ie whether or not the difference in means could be accounted for by the variance in their punts.  This was not the case though, as the Levene test gave us the inclination that punter to punter variance is the same



Test of Homogeneity of Variances
Yardage
Levene Statistic
df1
df2
Sig.
1.282
31
2125
.138


Followign this gives us that we needed to do some Post Hoc work to determine exactly where each punter falls in the hierarchy of the league.

Tier
Punter
Average
1
48.39
J.HEKKER
48.39
2
47.93
M.BOSHER
47.93
3
45.65
K.HUBER
46
P.O'DONNELL
43.95
B.ANGER
45.9
P.MCAFEE
47.81
D.COLQUITT
45.71
B.COLQUITT
43.58
M.DARR
47.48
R.QUIGLEY
43.66
S.KOCH
47.84
B.PINION
43.96
M.SCIFRES
44.7
T.WAY
45.59
B.KERN
47.17
C.JONES
45.75
C.SCHMIDT
45.59
R.ALLEN
45.65
S.MARTIN
46.07
T.MORSTEAD
44.94
M.KING
44.27
A.LEE
46.66
B.NORTMAN
45.83
D.JONES
47.41
T.MASTHAY
43.68
B.WING
44.84
J.RYAN
45.82
S.LECHLER
46.93
4
42.27
D.BUTLER
42.37
J.BERRY
42.19
J.SCHUM
42.25
5
42.05
J.LOCKE
42.05

The above table breaks down the Tukey test results.  There is a decent break down of punters in the league, with there being 5 different groupings.  However, much like place kickers where there are some very good, and some very bad players earning money in the league, a majority of them all fall together, with a bit of luck helping to determine a punt travelling either 45 or 43 yards on a play.

This of course is a fairly rudimentary analysis.  A punt that travels 35 yards might force a fair catch when one that goes 60 outkicks the coverage units and allows a big return.  IT would be interesting to see as well with more detailed data if some punters are sacrificing some distance for more control, like pinning in a returner on the sideline versus kicking it straight down the middle.

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