One of the biggest debates heading up to this week's draft is regarding whether or not the Broncos (or that fact, any team) should move up in the draft to go get a player they value. The argument for doing so is that you need to trust your own scouting process, and if you think a player has a value thats high enough, just go get them. There's risk, but if you've done your homework you can assess whether or not that risk is acceptable. The other side says that every draft pick is essentially a lottery ticket, and the best way to spread that risk out for things you cannot account for (injuries chief amongst them) is to have as many picks as possible. And that because the risk is so high, not having multiple choices puts you behind the 8 ball.
Looking through drafts from 2011-2018, there were 47 instances where teams moved up in the draft to take players that were not value swaps (ie, the Saints gaining a 1st round pick from the Patriots for Brandin Cooks in 2018). 2011 was selected as the start year because it was the first year with the new rookie wage scale in place, which had been diminishing teams attempting to trade higher up for a few years previously. Stopping at 2018 because its tough to evaluate a trade after just a single season. The detailed list of swaps from Pro-Football Reference is after the jump, and I have my notes from each them listed as well.
To examine each trade, the AV of each set of swapped picks was the first pass, as well as a look at whether or not a player of similar caliber/same player was available when the original pick was made. This is of course a bit subjective, but its really just a rough estimate to give an idea of the value of trading up. Three categories of picks, Worth it, Middle, and Not Worth it.
I count 14 of these picks being worthwhile, starting with the Falcons moving way up to get Julio Jones and ending with the Ravens moving back into the first to gram Lamar Jackson. There were another 7 that I felt were fine, but teams could probably have gotten a player of similar caliber later on (See the Mark Ingram trade up, Josh Doctson, Rashaan Evans). That means 26 others were not worth it, and might have set teams backwards because of the miss on a 1st round prospect.
14 of these trade ups have been involved for going to get a QB, although the last two years have skewed that a bit (7 QB trade ups). Of these, there are really only 4 that can be taken as outright wins, with Mahomes, Watson, Jackson and Wentz all being players that have earned significant value so far. Others that could very well have been worthwhile but injuries derailed excellent starts with RG3 and Teddy Bridgewater I put into a category of misses, but that very easily could have been worthwhile. From the 2018 class its looking like Jackson might be the only big hit, as Rosen is almost washed, Darnold has been inconsistent at best, and Allen has been better than expected but not really worth a top 10 pick.
Specifically for the Broncos, there were 7 trades up for Wide Receivers. Only one of these picks has been worthwhile (Julio Jones). The Redskins jumping up to nab Josh Doctson over Will Fuller is more bad than good, but also likely isnt such an overpay for the 6th rounder they gave up. The Sammy Watkins trade up is especially relevant, because that draft saw five wide recievrs go in the first round. Not all of them became stars, but many were serviceable and the draft was deep with players like John Brown, Allen Robinson, Davante Adams.
All in all its not the absolute worst to jump up in the draft, but there is just so much uncertainty for doing so that its unlikely to be worth the opportunity cost. There does seem to be some value in jumping back into the first round late, especially for giving up a 2nd round selection and a late round pick.
