Friday, April 17, 2020

Trading up in the NFL: An overview from 2011 to 2018

One of the biggest debates heading up to this week's draft is regarding whether or not the Broncos (or that fact, any team) should move up in the draft to go get a player they value.  The argument for doing so is that you need to trust your own scouting process, and if you think a player has a value thats high enough, just go get them.  There's risk, but if you've done your homework you can assess whether or not that risk is acceptable.  The other side says that every draft pick is essentially a lottery ticket, and the best way to spread that risk out for things you cannot account for (injuries chief amongst them) is to have as many picks as possible.  And that because the risk is so high, not having multiple choices puts you behind the 8 ball.

Looking through drafts from 2011-2018, there were 47 instances where teams moved up in the draft to take players that were not value swaps (ie, the Saints gaining a 1st round pick from the Patriots for Brandin Cooks in 2018).  2011 was selected as the start year because it was the first year with the new rookie wage scale in place, which had been diminishing teams attempting to trade higher up for a few years previously.  Stopping at 2018 because its tough to evaluate a trade after just a single season.  The detailed list of swaps from Pro-Football Reference is after the jump, and I have my notes from each them listed as well. 

To examine each trade, the AV of each set of swapped picks was the first pass, as well as a look at whether or not a player of similar caliber/same player was available when  the original pick was made.  This is of course a bit subjective, but its really just a rough estimate to give an idea of the value of trading up.  Three categories of picks, Worth it, Middle, and Not Worth it.

I count 14 of these picks being worthwhile, starting with the Falcons moving way up to get Julio Jones and ending with the Ravens moving back into the first to gram Lamar Jackson.  There were another 7 that I felt were fine, but teams could probably have gotten a player of similar caliber later on (See the Mark Ingram trade up, Josh Doctson, Rashaan Evans).  That means 26 others were not worth it, and might have set teams backwards because of the miss on a 1st round prospect.

14 of these trade ups have been involved for going to get a QB, although the last two years have skewed that a bit (7 QB trade ups).  Of these, there are really only 4 that can be taken as outright wins, with Mahomes, Watson, Jackson and Wentz all being players that have earned significant value so far.  Others that could very well have been worthwhile but injuries derailed excellent starts with RG3 and Teddy Bridgewater I put into a category of misses, but that very easily could have been worthwhile.  From the 2018 class its looking like Jackson might be the only big hit, as Rosen is almost washed, Darnold has been inconsistent at best, and Allen has been better than expected but not really worth a top 10 pick.

Specifically for the Broncos, there were 7 trades up for Wide Receivers.  Only one of these picks has been worthwhile (Julio Jones).  The Redskins jumping up to nab Josh Doctson over Will Fuller is more bad than good, but also likely isnt such an overpay for the 6th rounder they gave up.  The Sammy Watkins trade up is especially relevant, because that draft saw five wide recievrs go in the first round.  Not all of them became stars, but many were serviceable and the draft was deep with players like John Brown, Allen Robinson, Davante Adams. 

All in all its not the absolute worst to jump up in the draft, but there is just so much uncertainty for doing so that its unlikely to be worth the opportunity cost.  There does seem to be some value in jumping back into the first round late, especially for giving up a 2nd round selection and a late round pick. 




2011

Apr 28, 2011: Falcons traded 2011 1st round pick (26th overall subsequently traded, Jonathan Baldwin), 2011 2nd round pick (59th overall, Greg Little), 2011 4th round pick (124th overall, Owen Marecic), 2012 1st round pick (22nd overall, Brandon Weeden) and 2011 4th round pick (118th overall subsequently traded, Jalil Brown) to Browns for 2011 1st round pick (6th overall, Julio Jones)

The Falcons came all the way from the back end of the 1st round into number 6 to go grab Julio Jones.  Atlanta had been 13-3 the previous season, and went all in to try and get an offense that would out compete their foes in the the NFC South.  It also was insurance in case their other top two recieving tarets, a 30 year old Roddy White and 35 year old Tony Gonzalez were to miss time.  Could the Falcons have done better standing pat?  Considering two of the picks they traded ended up becoming busts at the WR position, its unlikely.  The first rounder in 2012 they gave up could possibly have become Riley Reiff or Kevin Zeitler, but having Julio still likely outweighs that value.  Worth it.

Apr 28, 2011: Jaguars traded 2011 1st round pick (16th overall, Ryan Kerrigan) and 2011 2nd round pick (49th overall subsequently traded, Ben Ijalana) to Redskins for 2011 1st round pick (10th overall, Blaine Gabbert)

The Jags moved up to get their QB in Blaine Gabbert.  This move has been widely panned, as the Redskins got one of the most underrated EDGE players in this decade in Kerrigan, and the Jags got a QB that was not ready for the NFL. Not Worth it.
 
Apr 28, 2011: Browns traded 2011 1st round pick (26th overall, Jonathan Baldwin) and 2011 3rd round pick (70th overall, Justin Houston) to Chiefs for 2011 1st round pick (21st overall, Phil Taylor)

The Browns following their drop back from 6 moved back up to 21.  The Chiefs ended up with the aforementioned bust Jon Baldwin, but that third round pick ended up being Justin Houston, who has had a stellar career as a pass rusher.  Phil Taylor looked very good in his first season with the Browns, posting 4 sacks, 6 TFL and another 7 QB Hurries.  However, he never really recovered form several injuries during his time in Cleveland, and has been on and off rosters throughout the years.  This move was not likely worth it. Not Worth It.

Apr 28, 2011: Patriots traded 2011 1st round pick (28th overall, Mark Ingram) to Saints for 2011 2nd round pick (56th overall, Shane Vereen) and 2012 1st round pick (27th overall subsequently traded, Kevin Zeitler)

The Saints moved up in 2011 to go get Heisman winner Ingram to invograte a rushing attack that ranked 19th by yards per attempt, and 24th in rushing TDs.  Ingram posted a 56% success rate, about what Chris Ivory had done for the Saints the previous year, but had averaged just under 4 yards per carry.  Backfield mate Pierre Thomas shined, with a 61% success rate and over 5 yards per attempt.  The Siants might have been able to get just as much value out of Shane Vereen and having Zeitler on board the next year though, but the AV on this trade is fairly even at 70-79 for the Pats.  Middle

2012

Mar 14, 2012: Rams traded 2012 1st round pick (2nd overall, Robert Griffin) to Redskins for 2014 1st round pick (2nd overall, Greg Robinson), 2012 1st round pick (6th overall subsequently traded, Morris Claiborne), 2012 2nd round pick (39th overall, Janoris Jenkins) and 2013 1st round pick (22nd overall subsequently traded, Desmond Trufant)

The biggest move of the draft occurred roughly a month beforehand, when the Redskins sent everything they had for years to the Rams to go get RG3.  This move will likely always be paired with the image of Griffin hobbling off the field in a sloppy field playoff loss.  That LCL/ACL injury essentially sapped Griffin and he became another point in the discussion as why trading up is so dangerous.  It essentially hamstrung the Redskins until 2015 when they would get their own first round pick back.  However, had he been able to avoid that injury, one could wonder just how that career arc could end up, since he had completed 65.6% of his passes for more than 8 yards per attempt, and averaged almost 7 yards per carry. Not Worth It-Injury

Apr 26, 2012: Vikings traded 2012 1st round pick (3rd overall, Trent Richardson) to Browns for 2012 4th round pick (118th overall, Jarius Wright), 2012 1st round pick (4th overall, Matt Kalil), 2012 5th round pick (139th overall, Robert Blanton) and 2012 7th round pick (211th overall subsequently traded, Scott Solomon)

The Browns draft management in this first part of the decade is just maddening.  Trent Richardson ended up being far too slow to make it in the modern NFL, and was traded just a year later.  The AV values for this traded ended up as 82-18. Not Worth It.

Apr 26, 2012: Jaguars traded 2012 1st round pick (7th overall, Mark Barron) and 2012 4th round pick (101st overall subsequently traded, Omar Bolden) to Buccaneers for 2012 1st round pick (5th overall, Justin Blackmon)

The Jags after last year moving up to get their QB, moved up two spots to go get him one of the best weapons in the draft.  This ended up being a major bust though.  Blackmon had a rough transition to the NFL, posting a sub 50% catch rate and washing out after several drug suspensions.  A poor move up.  Not Worth it

Apr 26, 2012: Cowboys traded 2012 1st round pick (14th overall, Michael Brockers) and 2012 2nd round pick (45th overall subsequently traded, Alshon Jeffery) to Rams for 2012 1st round pick (6th overall, Morris Claiborne)

The Cowboys needed corner help, and paid a price to go get the LSU Tiger.  Claiborne was never a bad player, but he never lived up to the shut down corner status you would look for in a top 10 selection.  It also hurts that Alshon Jeffrey and Michael Brockers have both gone on to have solid careers.Not Worth It

Apr 26, 2012: Eagles traded 2012 1st round pick (15th overall, Bruce Irvin), 2012 4th round pick (114th overall, Jaye Howard) and 2012 6th round pick (172nd overall, Jeremy Lane) to Seahawks for 2012 1st round pick (12th overall, Fletcher Cox)

The Eagles got Fletcher Cox who has been an extremely good interior lineman for them.  He;s logged 48 career sacks, and is routinely in talks as one of the top at his position.  Bruce Irvin has been a pass rush specialist that has been solid but not spectacular.  Jaye Howard and Jeremy Lane have been solid players that are out of the league. Worth It

Apr 26, 2012: Bengals traded 2012 1st round pick (21st overall, Chandler Jones) to Patriots for 2012 1st round pick (27th overall, Kevin Zeitler) and 2012 3rd round pick (93rd overall, Brandon Thompson)

A rare instance where both teams got good value from a trade up.  The Pats wanted a pass rusher, and Jones fit the bill to a T for them for several years.  Zeitler has been one of the best interior offensive linemen for several years.Worth It

Apr 26, 2012: Broncos traded 2012 1st round pick (25th overall, Dont'a Hightower) to Patriots for 2012 1st round pick (31st overall subsequently traded, Doug Martin) and 2012 4th round pick (126th overall subsequently traded, Jared Crick)
Apr 26, 2012: Broncos traded 2012 1st round pick (31st overall, Doug Martin) and 2012 4th round pick (126th overall subsequently traded, Jared Crick) to Buccaneers for 2012 2nd round pick (36th overall, Derek Wolfe) and 2012 4th round pick (101st overall, Omar Bolden)

The Pats make a second move up here to go get another Linebacker in Dont'a Hightower, who has been another good piece in that defense.  The Broncos promptly traded that number 31 pick to the Bucs who got Doug Martin, who had a very good run as a premiere running back.  The Broncos ended up with Derek Wolfe, who has been a very good player.  Another move that seems to have worked out fro all parties involved.  Worth It.

Apr 26, 2012: Ravens traded 2012 1st round pick (29th overall, Harrison Smith) to Vikings for 2012 2nd round pick (35th overall, Courtney Upshaw) and 2012 4th round pick (98th overall, Gino Gradkowski)

 The Vikings moved up to get Harrison Smith, who has been one of the best safeties in the league for several years now.  The Ravens ended up with a couple of role players as Upshaw never lived up to his potential as a pass rusher, and Gradkowski was a solid back up interior lineman.  Worth It

2013

Apr 25, 2013: Raiders traded 2013 1st round pick (3rd overall, Dion Jordan) to Dolphins for 2013 1st round pick (12th overall, D.J. Hayden) and 2013 2nd round pick (42nd overall, Menelik Watson)

The Dolphins blunder here going up to get Jordan, who is likely one of the worst overdrafts in recent memory.  The Raiders got DJ Hayden, who never has been a top of the league corner, but has at least been serviceable.  Not Worth It

Apr 25, 2013: Bills traded 2013 1st round pick (8th overall, Tavon Austin) and 2013 3rd round pick (71st overall, T.J. McDonald) to Rams for 2013 1st round pick (16th overall, EJ Manuel), 2013 2nd round pick (46th overall, Kiko Alonso), 2013 3rd round pick (78th overall, Marquise Goodwin) and 2013 7th round pick (222nd overall, Chris Gragg)

The Rams moved up here to try and get a versatile weapon for Sam Bradford, but Tavon Austin just never fit the role of primary receiver, as the Rams struggled to get him involved in the offense. The Rams easily could have just stayed at 16 and taken Deandre Hopkins and gotten a weapon that actually made sense.  They also could potentially have had Austin at 16, since no other WR went off the board.  Not Worth It

Apr 25, 2013: Cowboys traded 2013 1st round pick (18th overall, Eric Reid) to 49ers for 2013 1st round pick (31st overall, Travis Frederick) and 2013 3rd round pick (74th overall, Terrance Williams)

The Niners got a good player in Reid, who eventually found his way to Carolina and has continued good play there.  This is a bit of an over pay, but not the worst.  The Niners likely couldnt have landed Reid in this spot, but there was still a lot of talent there.  Middle

Apr 25, 2013: Rams traded 2013 1st round pick (22nd overall, Desmond Trufant) and 2015 7th round pick (249th overall, Akeem King) to Falcons for 2013 1st round pick (30th overall, Alec Ogletree), 2013 3rd round pick (92nd overall, Stedman Bailey) and 2013 6th round pick (198th overall subsequently traded, Chris Jones)

The Falcons move up here to get a Corner,  and Trufant has been a good starter since he arrived in the league.  The Falcons might have had a chance at him or Xavier Rhodes staying at 30, but this trade was not awful.  Middle

Apr 25, 2013: Patriots traded 2013 1st round pick (29th overall, Cordarrelle Patterson) to Vikings for 2013 2nd round pick (52nd overall, Jamie Collins), 2013 3rd round pick (83rd overall, Logan Ryan), 2013 4th round pick (102nd overall, Josh Boyce) and 2013 7th round pick (229th overall subsequently traded, Everett Dawkins)

A year after getting some really great deals, the Vikings drop the ball on Patterson.  Another touted multi-threat style weapon, Patterson never developed into a #1 wideout, while the Pats got pieces of an excellent defense that would  lead them to a super bowl.  Not Worth It

2014

May 9, 2014: Browns traded 2014 1st round pick (4th overall, Sammy Watkins) to Bills for 2014 1st round pick (9th overall subsequently traded, Anthony Barr), 2015 1st round pick (19th overall, Cameron Erving) and 2015 4th round pick (115th overall, Ibraheim Campbell)

The Bills spend a lot of capitol to go get  a top flight WR, but Watkins doesnt ever end up being the same value as Julio Jones.  The trade isnt terrible for the Bills, but they could have stayed at 9 and gotten likely Watkins or Mike Evans, or OBJ. Not Worth It

May 9, 2014: Browns traded 2014 1st round pick (9th overall, Anthony Barr) and 2014 5th round pick (145th overall, David Yankey) to Vikings for 2014 1st round pick (8th overall, Justin Gilbert)

The Browns move up here to go get a corner, and it, like so many others, blows up in their face.  GIlbert played just 3 seasons and was out of the league.  Anthony Barr has been a very good Linebacker for the Vikings, as they fleece the Browns again in a one spot move up.Not Worth It

May 9, 2014: Eagles traded 2014 1st round pick (22nd overall, Johnny Manziel) to Browns for 2014 1st round pick (26th overall, Marcus Smith) and 2014 3rd round pick (83rd overall subsequently traded, Louis Nix)

The Browns again moved up to go get a player, and it fails them as Manziel ends up being too much of a headcase to operate in the league.  They possibly could have just waited, as none of the teams ahead of them were QB needy. Not Worth It

May 9, 2014: Saints traded 2014 1st round pick (27th overall, Deone Bucannon) and 2014 3rd round pick (91st overall, John Brown) to Cardinals for 2014 1st round pick (20th overall, Brandin Cooks)

The Saints moved up to go get Brandin Cooks, who was good but not great in New Orleans.  They lost out on a player that was very good for a few years in John Brown, but this trade doesn't scream bad.  Middle

May 9, 2014: Seahawks traded 2014 1st round pick (32nd overall, Teddy Bridgewater) to Vikings for 2014 2nd round pick (40th overall subsequently traded, Kyle Van Noy) and 2014 4th round pick (108th overall, Cassius Marsh)

The Vikings jump back into the first to grab Teddy Bridgewater, who has been polarizing.  He was a solid but not spectacular player for the Vikings for a few years before his horrific knee injury.  Then he became a good backup and is now getting another chance to start for the Panthers.  Losing out on a player like Van Noy is tough, but if Bridgewater had stayed healthy this swap is likely very good.  Not Worth It-Injury

2015

Apr 30, 2015: Chargers traded 2015 1st round pick (17th overall, Arik Armstead), 2015 4th round pick (117th overall, Blake Bell) and 2016 5th round pick (142nd overall, Ronald Blair) to 49ers for 2015 1st round pick (15th overall, Melvin Gordon)

The Chargers wanted a RB to try and give them a push to get over the hump in the AFC West.  Gordon has been a solid, but not spectacular player and has missed a lot of time with injuries.  They also likely could have stayed where they were at, since Houston still had Arian Foster in his semi-prime.  Not Worth It

Apr 30, 2015: Broncos traded 2015 1st round pick (28th overall, Laken Tomlinson), 2015 5th round pick (143rd overall subsequently traded, MyCole Pruitt), 2016 5th round pick (169th overall, Antwione Williams) and Manuel Ramirez to Lions for 2015 1st round pick (23rd overall, Shane Ray)

The Broncos paid a heavy price to give Von Miller a running mate for the future since Demarcus Ware was nearing the end of his career.  Ray operated well as a rotational player, but multiple injuries reduced his effectiveness and he never reached the peak.Not Worth It

2016

Apr 14, 2016: Rams traded 2016 1st round pick (15th overall subsequently traded, Corey Coleman), 2016 2nd round pick (43rd overall, Austin Johnson), 2016 2nd round pick (45th overall, Derrick Henry), 2016 3rd round pick (76th overall subsequently traded, Shon Coleman), 2017 1st round pick (5th overall, Corey Davis) and 2017 3rd round pick (100th overall, Jonnu Smith) to Titans for 2016 1st round pick (1st overall, Jared Goff), 2016 4th round pick (113th overall subsequently traded, Nick Kwiatkoski) and 2016 6th round pick (177th overall, Temarrick Hemingway)

The Rams made a big move up to go get one of the top two QBs in this draft.  The Titans just had drafted Marcus Mariota, so this was a no brainer for them.  Goff has been a mixed bag.  He started in Jeff Fisher's just awful offenses, and has been better with Sean Mcvay, but not really looking like the kind of guy you would stake the franchise to.  Not Worth It

Apr 20, 2016: Browns traded 2016 1st round pick (2nd overall, Carson Wentz) and 2017 4th round pick (139th overall subsequently traded, Jehu Chesson) to Eagles for 2016 1st round pick (8th overall subsequently traded, Jack Conklin), 2016 3rd round pick (77th overall subsequently traded, Daryl Worley), 2016 4th round pick (100th overall subsequently traded, Connor Cook), 2017 1st round pick (12th overall subsequently traded, Deshaun Watson) and 2018 2nd round pick (64th overall subsequently traded, Tyquan Lewis)

The Eagles a week later make a move to go get whichever guy the Rams didn't take.  Wentz has been more in line with a franchise type of QB, but injuries have again de-railed what should have been an excellent career start.Worth It
 
Apr 28, 2016: Browns traded 2016 1st round pick (8th overall, Jack Conklin) and 2016 6th round pick (176th overall subsequently traded, Andy Janovich) to Titans for 2016 1st round pick (15th overall, Corey Coleman), 2016 3rd round pick (76th overall, Shon Coleman) and 2017 2nd round pick (52nd overall, DeShone Kizer)

The Titans use the extra draft capital they got to move up to go get Jack Conklin, who has been a very solid tackle for the Titans.  They might have been able to grab Taylor Decker staying at 15, or maybe Laremy Tunsil, but Conklin has likely been worth the move for them.  Worth It

Apr 28, 2016: Buccaneers traded 2016 1st round pick (9th overall, Leonard Floyd) to Bears for 2016 1st round pick (11th overall, Vernon Hargreaves) and 2016 4th round pick (106th overall subsequently traded, Eric Murray)

The Bears wanted to get a pass rusher, and moved up to get Floyd.  He ended up with a strong rookei campaign, and has been solid at generating pressures, but hasn't made a huge impact and the Bears let him walk without the 5th year option this offseason.  Holding pat also could have worked, since the Giants took Eli Apple and the Bucs grabbed Vernon Hargreaves.Not Worth It

Apr 28, 2016: Redskins traded 2016 1st round pick (21st overall, Will Fuller) to Texans for 2016 1st round pick (22nd overall, Josh Doctson) and 2017 6th round pick (209th overall, Robert Davis)

The Texans moved up to grab Will Fuller one spot, and got their choice of Fuller or Doctson.  Doctson has been a huge bust, but Fuller has dealt with injuries.  If the Texans had ended up with Doctson, he might have been better in the Texans offense as Fuller has been.  Middle

Apr 28, 2016: Seahawks traded 2016 1st round pick (26th overall, Paxton Lynch) to Broncos for 2016 1st round pick (31st overall, Germain Ifedi) and 2016 3rd round pick (94th overall, Nick Vannett)

The Broncos moved up to go get a QB of the future after Brock Osweiler moved on to Houston, but Lynch never panned out.  Denver likely could have stayed put, and gotten Lynch or gone a bit of a reach on Dak Prescott, who has turned out to be the better man anyways.Not Worth It

Apr 28, 2016: Chiefs traded 2016 1st round pick (28th overall, Joshua Garnett) to 49ers for 2016 2nd round pick (37th overall, Chris Jones), 2016 4th round pick (105th overall, Parker Ehinger) and 2016 6th round pick (178th overall, D.J. White)

The 49ers moved back into the first to take Garnett, an Guard out of Stanford.  Garnett had a promising rookie campaign, but again, injuries derail a promising career.  The Niners cut him this past year, and he'll try to keep in the league with the Lions.Not Worth It

2017

Apr 27, 2017: 49ers traded 2017 1st round pick (2nd overall, Mitchell Trubisky) to Bears for 2017 1st round pick (3rd overall, Solomon Thomas), 2017 3rd round pick (67th overall subsequently traded, Alvin Kamara), 2017 4th round pick (111th overall subsequently traded, Tedric Thompson) and 2018 3rd round pick (70th overall, Fred Warner)

The 49ers were looking to move down in this draft, or at least smoke screened they were.  The Bears moved up one spot to go get Mitch Trubisky, a risky pick for a QB to begin with.  This move looks much worse since two other QBs were taken later that have been much, much better than Mitch.  The Bears could have stood pat and taken one of them even if the Niners gave up the pick to someone else to get Trubisky.  Not Worth It

Apr 27, 2017: Bills traded 2017 1st round pick (10th overall, Patrick Mahomes) to Chiefs for 2017 1st round pick (27th overall, Tre'Davious White), 2017 3rd round pick (91st overall subsequently traded, John Johnson) and 2018 1st round pick (22nd overall subsequently traded, Rashaan Evans)

The Chiefs moved up to get their man and Mahomes has been very, very worth the cost.  The Bills have recieved quite a bit of value from this, but they could potentially have used a QB, since Tyrod Taylor wasnt a sure bet. Worth It

Apr 27, 2017: Browns traded 2017 1st round pick (12th overall, Deshaun Watson) to Texans for 2017 1st round pick (25th overall, Jabrill Peppers) and 2018 1st round pick (4th overall, Denzel Ward)

Nothing to boo about here as the Texans go get Watson, who has been an exciting QB in his short career.  Worth It

Apr 27, 2017: Seahawks traded 2017 1st round pick (26th overall, Takkarist McKinley) to Falcons for 2017 1st round pick (31st overall subsequently traded, Reuben Foster), 2017 3rd round pick (95th overall, Delano Hill) and 2017 7th round pick (249th overall, Chris Carson)

The Falcons go up and get another pass rusher in McKinley, who has not really worked out so well.  He's been solid at generating pressures, and last year started getting to the QB overall more consistently.  He's still a bit of a disappointment.  Not Worth It

Apr 27, 2017: Packers traded 2017 1st round pick (29th overall, David Njoku) to Browns for 2017 2nd round pick (33rd overall, Kevin King) and 2017 4th round pick (108th overall, Vince Biegel)

The Browns moved back into the first to get David Njoku, a tight end that has been pretty good, but missed most of last year with injury.  This trade actually isnt awful, especially if Njoku can get healthy going forward.  Worth It

Apr 27, 2017: Seahawks traded 2017 1st round pick (31st overall, Reuben Foster) to 49ers for 2017 2nd round pick (34th overall subsequently traded, Cam Robinson) and 2017 4th round pick (111th overall, Tedric Thompson)

The Niners jump back into the first and take Reuben Foster, but Foster ended up being a guy that tossed away his real chances in the NFL.  Not Worth It

 2018

Mar 17, 2018: Colts traded 2018 1st round pick (3rd overall, Sam Darnold) to Jets for 2018 1st round pick (6th overall, Quenton Nelson), 2018 2nd round pick (37th overall, Braden Smith), 2018 2nd round pick (49th overall subsequently traded, Dallas Goedert) and 2019 2nd round pick (34th overall, Rock Ya-Sin)

The Jets moved up to go get one of the top QBs from this class that featured quite a few top prospects.  Darnold so far has struggled, and the capitol they gave up helped build the Colts into a real potential power.  The Jets could have taken Josh Rosen or Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson there, since its likely at least one of them makes it to that point.Not Worth It

Apr 26, 2018: Buccaneers traded 2018 1st round pick (7th overall, Josh Allen) to Bills for 2018 1st round pick (12th overall, Vita Vea), 2018 2nd round pick (53rd overall, M.J. Stewart) and 2018 2nd round pick (56th overall subsequently traded, Duke Dawson)

The Bills move up to get Josh Allen, who has not been really worthy so far as a top ten pick.  Theres a chance they could have stood pat and still gotten Allen, but its probably not as the Cardinals jump into the fray as well ahead at 10.Not Worth It

Apr 26, 2018: Raiders traded 2018 1st round pick (10th overall, Josh Rosen) to Cardinals for 2018 1st round pick (15th overall, Kolton Miller), 2018 3rd round pick (79th overall subsequently traded, Rasheem Green) and 2018 5th round pick (152nd overall subsequently traded, Dane Cruikshank)

 The Cardinals went up to go get Rosen, and it looks like this is the biggest bust of these QB move ups in this class.  Rosen played in a terrible situation in Arizona where the coach got fired after the first season, and he gets traded to Miami where he can't outplay Ryan Fitzpatrick enough to be the starter for the year.   Not Worth It

Apr 26, 2018: Packers traded 2018 1st round pick (14th overall, Marcus Davenport) to Saints for 2018 1st round pick (27th overall subsequently traded, Rashaad Penny), 2018 5th round pick (147th overall subsequently traded, Micah Kiser) and 2019 1st round pick (30th overall subsequently traded, Deandre Baker)

The Saints get a defensive lineman that took a good step  this past year as a pass rusher and is a solid run defender.  They probably couldnt have gotten a better prospect at 27 though.  Worth It

Apr 26, 2018: Ravens traded 2018 1st round pick (16th overall, Tremaine Edmunds) to Bills for 2018 1st round pick (22nd overall subsequently traded, Rashaan Evans), 2018 3rd round pick (65th overall subsequently traded, Brandon Parker) and 2018 5th round pick (154th overall subsequently traded, Siran Neal)

Tremaine Edmunds has been a good linebacker for the Bills, and likely has been worth the move up.Worth It

Apr 26, 2018: Seahawks traded 2018 1st round pick (18th overall, Jaire Alexander) and 2018 7th round pick (248th overall, Kendall Donnerson) to Packers for 2018 1st round pick (27th overall, Rashaad Penny), 2018 3rd round pick (76th overall subsequently traded, Mason Rudolph) and 2018 6th round pick (186th overall, Jacob Martin)

The Packers move up to get a corner, and Alexander has been solid in both seasons of play.  Lots of passes defensed, and a sub 60% of passes completed against.  Middle

Apr 26, 2018: Ravens traded 2018 1st round pick (22nd overall, Rashaan Evans) and 2018 6th round pick (215th overall subsequently traded, Bradley Bozeman) to Titans for 2018 1st round pick (25th overall, Hayden Hurst) and 2018 4th round pick (125th overall subsequently traded, Avonte Maddox)

 Rashaan Evans has been a good run defender for the Titans, but just mediocre against the pass.  They potentially could have stood pat, and likely gotten Evans or Darius Leonard who went about ten picks later and has been a monster.  Not a disaster, but not great either.  Middle

Apr 26, 2018: Eagles traded 2018 1st round pick (32nd overall, Lamar Jackson) and 2018 4th round pick (132nd overall, Jaleel Scott) to Ravens for 2018 2nd round pick (52nd overall subsequently traded, Kemoko Turay), 2018 4th round pick (125th overall, Avonte Maddox) and 2019 2nd round pick (53rd overall, Miles Sanders)

The Ravens jump back in to get a QB of the future, and Jackson has turned into one of the most exciting young QBs in the league.  This move has been infinitely worthwhile.   Worth It



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