NFL Havoc and Down Success Rate through Week 7

While Havoc rates tend to be big plays for defenses, offenses need to stay on schedule, which brings us to Down Success Rate.  Essentially, on first down teams need to be gaining about 4 to 5 yards to have a good chance at pcikign up another set of first downs.  Regardless of first down, on second down they need to get 60% of the remaining yards, and on third or fourth down they need to get them all.  This metric was first develped by the folks at Footballoutsiders.   The two metrics can tell us a lot about an offense or defense.

The Broncos were able to move out of last place for Havoc Rate allowed, barely edging out the Giants this week.  As mentioned earlier this week, it was not a good one for the Broncos.  Overall the Seahawks still trail the Packers in Havoc Rate allowed, but are nipping the heels and lead the league in Down Success Rate.  Interestingly, the Bengals have allowed a lot of chaos, but have been close to league average for staying on schedule, meaning they're making chunk plays to get it back.  Thats a team that is a candidate for stealing some games down the stretch.

The Steelers and Buc remain the leaders for top defensive performances so far, as both teams have caused havoc and have continued to keep teams off schedule.  The Colts and Bears have also been pretty good at that next tier down, while the Titans have been pretty awful at keeping teams from chewing them up, especially the past two weeks.

 

 

 

 

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Recap

 As has been the experience far too often over the past five years, the Chiefs have once again routed the Broncos.  Denver spotted the Chiefs 14 points in two just back breaking mistakes, a pick 6 and a kick return for a TD.  The Broncos have been miserable on special teams for years now, as even McManus missed an extra point this week to put the cherry on the top.  The talk of course though for the most part has centered on whether or not Drew Lock is going to be able to take that next step.  After a pretty solid performance against New England, that saw a lot of drops, the hopes were at least raised this week for him to perhaps make a statement in the cold against KC.  But, after a seemingly endless amount of missed opportunities and wasted downs, doubt has settled in again fro Broncos Country at the QB spot.

Not to beat the dead horse here, but the drive chart doesnt get much better for the Broncos.  9 of their 13 drives ended at less than 50% of the potential yards gained, with five gaining less than 25%.  It didnt feel that bad throughout the game, as Phillip Lindsay put in a good effort picking up almost 9 yards per carry before leaving with a possible concussion.  Melvin Gordon had a decent game, excluding two fumbles, one on a ridiculous pitch attempt on a flea flicker.  The offense really did not get any rhythm going at all with self inflicted wounds.

 The defense though fared quite well.  The Chiefs struggled to move the ball effectively, holding the Chiefs to six of nine drives for under 50% of their potential yards.  Bradley Chubb continued to pressure pockets and cause mayhem, as the Broncos forced KC to over 10% havoc rate, one of their lower marks for the season so far.  Maybe the Chiefs would have picked up more yards with the drives they lost form the pick 6 and kick return, but the defense looked dialed in for almost the entire game.

 

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
DEN	KC	75	1	Punt	-3	-4	4
KC	DEN	68	1	Touchdown	68	100	8
DEN	KC	75	1	Punt	6	8	3
KC	DEN	81	1	Turnover	14	17.283951	1
DEN	KC	37	1	Touchdown	37	100	5
KC	DEN	75	1	Field goal	53	70.666667	6
DEN	KC	75	1	Turnover	16	21.333333	5
KC	DEN	50	1	Punt	-8	-16	3
DEN	KC	99	2	Opp touchdown	45	45.454545	9
DEN	KC	75	2	Field goal	50	66.666667	6
DEN	KC	75	2	Punt	7	9.333333	3
KC	DEN	76	2	Punt	32	42.105263	4
DEN	KC	85	2	End of half	48	56.470588	12
KC	DEN	75	3	Punt	6	8	3
DEN	KC	78	3	Turnover	6	7.692308	4
KC	DEN	14	3	Field goal	1	7.142857	3
DEN	KC	75	3	Turnover on downs	33	44	10
KC	DEN	58	3	Field goal	50	86.206897	7
DEN	KC	75	3	Turnover	36	48	5
KC	DEN	57	4	Touchdown	57	100	6
DEN	KC	75	4	Touchdown	75	100	9
KC	DEN	21	4	Touchdown	21	100	7
DEN	KC	75	4	Turnover on downs	26	34.666667	8

NFL Havoc Rates Through Week 6

 Week 6 of the weird NFL season is in the books, and here's a look into the havoc defenses have wrought.

The Steelers continue to lead the league, as this week they forced 15 more havoc plays from the Browns 60 offensive plays (61 after removing some of the junk like kneel downs, punts, field goals, plays brought back by penalty etc).   Thats one out of every four snaps that ended in something terrible for the Browns offense.  This defense hasn't played much competition yet, but it might actually be the best unit in the league.  The Colts and the Bucs both have been disruptive as well, ranking third and second respectively.  The Titans took a step back this week, after the previously moribund Houston offense came to life and turned the game into a shootout. 

The Bengals came out swinging against the Colts, but overall allowed 17 havoc plays and that cost them a chance to win.  I had previously opined that the Broncos offense might be seeing a sudden jolt back towards league average, but after a week in which they posted a Havoc rate of 17.7%, it might have been a bit premature.  They're now the worst in the league, edging out the Giants and Bengals.  The Packers maintain their crown as the least havoced offense, but only by the skin of their teeth as the Titans offense was exceptional this week against the Texans.  

 

 

 

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Recap

 The Broncos went into Foxburough and walked away with a second consecutive victory for this weird season.  The extra week of practices looked like it helped, since the Broncos were able to shut New England down essentially all game, and they got Drew Lock back.  Lock had a bit of an uneven performance, mixing excellent deep ball placement with a pair of back to back heart breaking interceptions.  Overall though I'm encouraged, since Lock's deep ball had not looked very good since he became the starter, and the Broncos receivers did no favors with by my count three drops and a few toss up drops. 

The uneven offensive performance continues to be frustrating for Broncos Country.  In the first half, 3 of 4 drives gained more than 50% of their needed yards (and one started deep in New England territory, so it still ended in points).  The rest of the game they had 1 of 6 go for more than that 50% mark, and thanks to some short fields kicked another pair of field goals.  

The defense continued to hold up well, allowing just three of the pats drives to get over 50% of their yards, while also forcing turnovers on three more drives and ending the game with a turn over on downs.  The defense took advantage of Cam's missed time and forced him to hold the ball on several occasions, as the pass rush has finally started to show up for the Broncos.

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
DEN	NE	75	1	Field goal	48	64	5
NE	DEN	83	1	Turnover	28	33.73494	6
DEN	NE	33	1	Field goal	8	24.242424	3
NE	DEN	68	1	Punt	27	39.705882	7
DEN	NE	91	1	Field goal	83	91.208791	12
NE	DEN	81	2	Field goal	59	72.839506	11
DEN	NE	82	2	Field goal	48	58.536585	13
NE	DEN	75	3	Punt	0	0	3
DEN	NE	85	3	Field goal	83	97.647059	15
NE	DEN	75	3	Turnover	33	44	4
DEN	NE	42	3	Field goal	6	14.285714	3
NE	DEN	75	3	Turnover	0	0	1
DEN	NE	39	3	Punt	0	0	3
NE	DEN	92	4	Punt	9	9.782609	3
DEN	NE	70	4	Punt	4	5.714286	5
NE	DEN	65	4	Touchdown	65	100	6
DEN	NE	83	4	Turnover	22	26.506024	5
NE	DEN	25	4	Field goal	5	20	3
DEN	NE	75	4	Turnover	0	0	1
NE	DEN	72	4	Turnover on downs	48	66.666667	14

 

NFL Havoc Rates Week 5

 This week saw some out of game havoc as the Broncos and Patriots had to psotpone their game to this weekend, and the Bills and Titans played on a Tuesday night.  

The Packers took advantage of their bye week to not allow any excess havoc, continuing to lead the league.  The Titans though have narrowed the gap, which is made a lot easier when Derrick Henry is shoving defenders to the groud and constantly picking up at least a few yards.  One team I'll be interested in going forward is the Saints.  Drew Brees has not looked very consistent so far this year with his ability to push the ball deep, and while they made a come back against the Chargers this week it wasn't pretty. 

The Steelers maintained their dominating havoc rate lead this week as teams that had been closer to them such as the Jets and Giants both fell back towards league average this week.  Minnesota and Houston have both struggled in the havoc department, posting 9% of their defensive snaps causing it.  The Vikings should especially be concerned, since they rank second to last of teams that have played a full schedule in total haovc plays with just 31.  Only the Lions have a lower number, but they've been more consistent on a snap per snap basis.