While Havoc rates tend to be big plays for defenses, offenses need to stay on schedule, which brings us to Down Success Rate. Essentially, on first down teams need to be gaining about 4 to 5 yards to have a good chance at pcikign up another set of first downs. Regardless of first down, on second down they need to get 60% of the remaining yards, and on third or fourth down they need to get them all. This metric was first develped by the folks at Footballoutsiders. The two metrics can tell us a lot about an offense or defense.
The Broncos were able to move out of last place for Havoc Rate allowed, barely edging out the Giants this week. As mentioned earlier this week, it was not a good one for the Broncos. Overall the Seahawks still trail the Packers in Havoc Rate allowed, but are nipping the heels and lead the league in Down Success Rate. Interestingly, the Bengals have allowed a lot of chaos, but have been close to league average for staying on schedule, meaning they're making chunk plays to get it back. Thats a team that is a candidate for stealing some games down the stretch.
The Steelers and Buc remain the leaders for top defensive performances so far, as both teams have caused havoc and have continued to keep teams off schedule. The Colts and Bears have also been pretty good at that next tier down, while the Titans have been pretty awful at keeping teams from chewing them up, especially the past two weeks.
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