NFL Havoc and Success Rates Through Week 16

 Heading into the final week, it looks like the Steelers defense is going to remain atop the leaderboard in havoc rate and success rate allowed.  They had a bit of a rough start this past week against the Colts, but tightened up in the 2nd half.  Whether it will be enough to drag their offense through the playoffs is another question.  

The Packers offense has also lead almost all season, but the Bills have taken the lead in success rate, with nearly half of their plays run being successful. 

 

Denver Broncos vs LA Chargers 2 Drive Stats and Recap

 The Broncos took another loss this week in a tight game, one in which the offense had several miscues at key times that left them just out of scoring.  Denver actually gained more potential yards than the Chargers, 55.3% to LA's just 35.2%.  A turnover in the maroon zone and a missed field goal though had Denver trailing 13-0 at half.  That inefficiency has plagued the offense all year, and through most of the game it didn't help that receivers dropped passes and losing KJ Hamler meant the loss of a versatile weapon.

 The second half saw the Chargers have just two of five drives gain more than half of their potential yards, but the second one was crucial after Denver had tied the game.  The defense allowed an 11 play drive to get into field goal range, and that would be the final defecit.

The team now looks to win a final game against the Raiders.  It will be the final look at the offensive young core, to give a hopeful glance to the future.

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
LAC	DEN	39	1	Field goal	20	51.3	5
DEN	LAC	87	1	Turnover	71	81.6	14
LAC	DEN	94	1	Punt	14	14.9	6
DEN	LAC	55	1	Missed field goal	36	65.5	10
LAC	DEN	73	2	Touchdown	73	100.0	9
DEN	LAC	81	2	Punt	7	8.6	4
LAC	DEN	65	2	Field goal	40	61.5	9
DEN	LAC	75	2	Punt	22	29.3	5
LAC	DEN	85	2	End of half	12	14.1	5
DEN	LAC	72	3	Punt	30	41.7	8
LAC	DEN	80	3	Punt	2	2.5	4
DEN	LAC	53	3	Field goal	41	77.4	7
LAC	DEN	75	3	Field goal	68	90.7	11
DEN	LAC	79	4	Field goal	48	60.8	8
LAC	DEN	69	4	Punt	9	13.0	3
DEN	LAC	72	4	Touchdown	72	100.0	11
LAC	DEN	88	4	Punt	-3	-3.4	4
DEN	LAC	58	4	Field goal	25	43.1	6
LAC	DEN	75	4	Field goal	56	74.7	11
DEN	LAC	75	4	Turnover	25	33.3	6

 

NFL Havoc and Success Rates through Week 15

As we close in on the end of the season, the teams that got out to early good rates have stayed there for the most part.  The Steelers defense has continued to be dominant at both creating havoc and keeping teams from staying on schedule.  Unlike themselves for most of the past decade, the Patriots have just been one of the worst defenses this season in both terms of stopping opponents and at creating havoc.  On Offense, the Packers continue to be one of the best overall, and the Bills might be a real contender with the play of Josh Allen this season.  The Cardinals have been a surprise this year, in that their havoc rate allowed is very low, but they continue to be one of the less successful teams at success rate. 

 

 

 

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Drive Stats and Recap

 Yesterday was a tough game all around.  The defense allowed the Bills to gain 82% of their potential yards, and the offense only gained 25%.  The Bills averaged almost 10 plays per drive, and the Broncos without a majority of their corner were just no match.  Missing Brandon McManus also was rough, as their should have been 3 points on the board after Denver's first drive.  

The first half was actually tight, as Denver was able to gain 41% of their yards.  But the wheels came off in the second half as the Bills tightened up and the Broncos followed a fumble with a quick three and out punt.  That pretty much ended it.  Lock was ok through most of the game, but had a few late out route throws that could have been picked.  It was just not a sharp day for the receivers either, with several drops.  This is bound to happen against a Super Bowl contender and a team that is held together with duct tape and rookies.

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
DEN	BUF	75	1	Missed field goal	42	56.0	9
BUF	DEN	59	1	Touchdown	59	100.0	15
DEN	BUF	75	1	Punt	25	33.3	5
BUF	DEN	95	1	Touchdown	95	100.0	12
DEN	BUF	75	2	Punt	0	0.0	3
DEN	BUF	35	2	Touchdown	35	100.0	6
BUF	DEN	76	2	Punt	4	5.3	3
DEN	BUF	95	2	Punt	2	2.1	3
BUF	DEN	59	2	Touchdown	59	100.0	8
DEN	BUF	75	2	Touchdown	75	100.0	15
BUF	DEN	43	3	Touchdown	43	100.0	8
DEN	BUF	75	3	Opp touchdown	-4	-5.3	1
DEN	BUF	75	3	Punt	-2	-2.7	3
BUF	DEN	68	3	Turnover on downs	64	94.1	5
DEN	BUF	96	3	Punt	1	1.0	4
BUF	DEN	58	3	Field goal	49	84.5	12
DEN	BUF	75	3	Punt	14	18.7	6
BUF	DEN	95	4	Field goal	86	90.5	11
DEN	BUF	75	4	Touchdown	75	100.0	13
BUF	DEN	51	4	Touchdown	51	100.0	1
DEN	BUF	75	4	End of half	5	6.7	3

NFL Havoc and Success Rates through Week 14

 The Steelers defense that had looked so good throughout the season suffered a real set back against the Bills this past week, especially in the third quarter as Josh Allen had a 90% success rate on his dropbacks.  Washington though continues to string together impressive defensive performances, holding the 49ers to just 15 points this week. 

On the flip side, the Bills now boast the highest success rate in the league, thanks in no small part to a nearly 8% explosive play rate, trailing just the Chiefs.  The Packers continue to remain by themselves in not allowing Havoc, and their success rate is fourth best because of it.