NFL Havoc and Success Rates through Week 14

 The Steelers defense that had looked so good throughout the season suffered a real set back against the Bills this past week, especially in the third quarter as Josh Allen had a 90% success rate on his dropbacks.  Washington though continues to string together impressive defensive performances, holding the 49ers to just 15 points this week. 

On the flip side, the Bills now boast the highest success rate in the league, thanks in no small part to a nearly 8% explosive play rate, trailing just the Chiefs.  The Packers continue to remain by themselves in not allowing Havoc, and their success rate is fourth best because of it.

 

Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers Recap and Drive Stats

The Broncos offense had its best day, likely in the past few years.   Five of their nine drives gained at least 50% of their potential yards, and they had just one drive under 20%, the very rough second to last drive near the goalline.  Overall they gained 63% of their potential yards, and Drew Lock hit plays both big and small.  The run game was also solid when Melvin Gordon was running, picking up over five yards per carry.  Phillip Lindsay struggled though, going just 24 yards on his 11 carries.  It was a great surprise that the offense was as smooth as it was, since they were without Garrett Bolles, and Graham Glasglow due to illness and injury.  This sort of performance from Lock and Pat Shurmur gives hope that things are starting to click, and this weekend against the Bills will be a good test as to how far they are.

The defense had some issues as the game went on, largely due to secondary depth and guys just starting to wear down.  The Panthers had two drives in the first half get at least 50%, and the other three at 25% or less.   The second half lead off with a Carolina stop, but Denver didn't get a hold again until the last drive of the game, when they forced a throw short of the sticks on fourth down.  Denver had a Havoc rate of 11.8%, which is about what the Panthers offense had been allowing so far this season.  Overall a solid effort, especially with some of the limitations of  losing another two defensive backs during the game. 

 

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
DEN	CAR	75	1	Punt	18	24.0	6
CAR	DEN	79	1	Opp touchdown	6	7.6	3
CAR	DEN	86	1	Punt	44	51.2	8
DEN	CAR	91	1	Punt	19	20.9	5
CAR	DEN	68	1	Punt	16	23.5	6
DEN	CAR	90	2	Turnover	47	52.2	12
CAR	DEN	3	2	Touchdown	3	100.0	2
DEN	CAR	75	2	Touchdown	75	100.0	15
CAR	DEN	75	2	End of half	19	25.3	6
CAR	DEN	75	3	Punt	-5	-6.7	4
DEN	CAR	63	3	Touchdown	63	100.0	4
CAR	DEN	75	3	Field goal	58	77.3	10
DEN	CAR	75	3	Touchdown	75	100.0	9
CAR	DEN	75	3	Touchdown	75	100.0	9
DEN	CAR	75	4	Punt	19	25.3	6
CAR	DEN	82	4	Field goal	74	90.2	10
DEN	CAR	75	4	Touchdown	75	100.0	3
CAR	DEN	75	4	Touchdown	75	100.0	5
DEN	CAR	93	4	Punt	-2	-2.2	6
CAR	DEN	73	4	Turnover on downs	3	4.1	4

 

Star Wars Armada: First game in in the 1.5 era

 It has been  a long time since I've played Armada.  The last battle report that I wrote up was in 2018.  And there was maybe a game or two in there since then.  Following our Corellian Conflict campaign and the birth of my daughter, Armada just sort of fell off for other board games and Legion really.  But, with the launch of the Clone Wars expansions and the 1.5 rules update, it felt like it was time to get in some action.  

For the occasion I broke out an old stand by kind of list, and Ackbar side arc shooter. 

MC30c Scout Frigate (69)
• Caitken and Shollan (6)
• Linked Turbolaser Towers (7)
• Foresight (8)
= 90 Points

CR90 Corvette A (44)
• Ahsoka Tano (2)
• Turbolaser Reroute Circuits (7)
= 53 Points

CR90 Corvette A (44)
• Linked Turbolaser Towers (7)
• Jaina's Light (2)
= 53 Points

Assault Frigate Mk2 B (72)
• Admiral Ackbar (38)
• Expert Shield Tech (5)
• Gunnery Team (7)
• Early Warning System (7)
• Linked Turbolaser Towers (7)
= 136 Points

GR-75 Medium Transports (18)
• Leia Organa (3)
• Comms Net (2)
= 23 Points

Squadrons:
• 4 x A-wing Squadron (44)
= 44 Points

Total Points: 399

Basically keep things in the side arc and shoot.  The MC30 is a little odd in this fleet, but I always like having a ship with a sizeable black die pool to help keep folks out of the area with it, and with the change to Evades Foresight feels pretty darn good now.  My opponent brought a two raider, Demolisher, and ISD Cymoon list.  His fighter component was a unique heavy group, with Maarek, Jendon, Cienna and Saber squadron.  His Cymoon was very light, carrying just Ozzel and some other upgrade card that I dont remember.  I ended up as second player, and he picked Rift Assault from Planetary Ion Cannons and Superior positions.  

 Overall the game was a bit of a mess, as we both were super rusty and had to keep checking the rules to make sure what we were doing was correct. We ended up essentially with the Assault Frigate, MC30 and Jainas Light taking on Demo and the ISD with the other CR90 tying up the Raiders and Squads for most of the game.  Ackbar remains the king of  being able to pile up punishment, as Demo and the ISD went down with Foresight and Jaina's Light holding on to 1 hull apiece for the exchange.  It ended up 290-180 for my fleet, with both Jaina and the other CR90 succumbing to wounds in rounds 4 and 6 respectively.  

I'm excited to have gotten a game in again after such a long time, and hopefully it will lead to some more going down as the New Year starts.

NFL Havoc and Success Rates through Week 13

 We're through Week 13 now, and most teams are holding steady where they're at in the various rates.  The Steelers continue to be the most disruptive defense in the league, which likely can explain why teams are generating success rates at the lowest rate against them.  Interestingly, the Bills and Browns both are above average at creating havoc, but are still allowing teams to get on schedule with good success rates.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos are still being dragged down by week 12's disaster, as the Eagles have also struggled to stay on schedule and are hoping for a big boost by the move to bench Carson Wentz.  The Bengals have seen a fairly dramatic rise in their havoc rate allowed without Joe Burrow, while the Packers continue to remain the best in the league at avoiding havoc. 

 

 

 

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs 2nd Game Drive Stats and Game Recap

 The Broncos on Sunday night had the Chiefs on the ropes.  The defense had played well and had shut down the Chiefs in the redzone, and had flustered them into missing several big play opportunities.  The offense actually played pretty well, gaining 50% of their potential yards for the night.  The Broncos played the game they wanted to, each team only getting 9 drives for the night, and the offense actually had more time of possession than the Chiefs.  So what went wrong?  Well, while the defense didn't break, they bent a lot.  The Chiefs picked up 65.7% of their potential yards, and gained nearly 50 yards per drive, outpacing Denver by about 12 yards per drive.  Drew Lock had a bad interception to start the game on what was a promising drive, and the second to last drive Denver punted back to KC despite having only 2 timeouts and having only forced 2 punts in the game.  This was the most competitive Denver has been against KC since the infamous Case Keenum overthrow game in Denver, showing at least some idea that this team has an idea of how to play against the Chiefs.

There continue to be issues with Drew Lock, but the gameplan by Shurmur the last two outings has been much better.  Its doing things that are Drew's strengths, and actually generating open receivers instead of continuously asking them to work themselves open all the time and have him find them at that moment.  The biggest issue for Drew right now is the continued attempts to make a big play every play.  The interception as Drew rolled out to try and hit Fumagalli is a perfect example.  If he hits it its a huge play.  But it doesnt, and Denver might have missed a chance to have had a 10 point swing from that (20 seconds off the clock keeps the Chiefs from getting that field goal at the end of the half.)  This give and take of big play vs safe plays is something that needs to continue to be worked on and its been better as time has gone on this season.  Lock is a gunslinger, so there will be times that you get these push plays, but if he can get it to a better ratio of risk and reward, Lock can be a very good QB.  It shouldn't be understated that the offense is also working with a majority of young talent at the skill positions, who have had limited time together thanks to Covid and injuries.  The timing and knowing where a guy will be against a certain coverage just aren't there yet.  There is still growth to come, and I want to see it from Drew for the rest of the year.  But honestly QB development isn't linear, and things have been trending up lately as everyone seems to be getting onto the same page. 

 

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
DEN	KC	75	1	Turnover	41	54.7	5
KC	DEN	90	1	Punt	26	28.9	5
DEN	KC	77	1	Field goal	42	54.5	11
KC	DEN	75	1	Field goal	58	77.3	6
DEN	KC	79	1	Punt	19	24.1	4
KC	DEN	79	2	Punt	39	49.4	8
DEN	KC	90	2	Touchdown	90	100.0	9
KC	DEN	75	2	Field goal	69	92.0	6
DEN	KC	65	2	Missed field goal	26	40.0	12
KC	DEN	53	2	Field goal	48	90.6	4
KC	DEN	75	3	Field goal	62	82.7	9
DEN	KC	72	3	Touchdown	72	100.0	14
KC	DEN	75	3	Touchdown	75	100.0	7
DEN	KC	75	3	Punt	14	18.7	5
KC	DEN	74	4	Punt	16	21.6	9
DEN	KC	92	4	Punt	41	44.6	8
KC	DEN	85	4	Field goal	55	64.7	12
DEN	KC	75	4	Turnover	5	6.7	4

 

NFL Havoc and Success rates through Week 12

 This week was another weird week thanks to Covid, as the Broncos played without any QBs and the Ravens and Steelers almsot made it into Week 13 with their game.  This week is really the first one that has skewed some of the season long results, as teams were able to log highs or lows for the season in Havoc rates.  

Nothing too stunning this week, although the Dolphins have some interesting defensive splits.  Thyeve been above average at creating havoc so far, but are also allowing teams to stay on scheduled at worse than league average rates right now.  The Seahawks follow a similar beat, to a bit of a greater degree.