Risers:
Troy Trojans
Projected Rank: 115 Current Rank: 33
The Trojans have had a down few seasons, not breaking .500 since 2010 (they did finish 6-6 in 2013, in between two 3-9 seasons). This year though they've already hit 6 wins, and should be favored in at least 3 of their remaining matchups. What has happened to give them such a jolt up? The defense has really stepped up, allowing opponents to score a touchdown less per game, and also allowing 10% fewer possible yards per drive. The offense has also become much more efficient, as junior tailback Jordan Churns has taken the starters role, and has averaged better than 5 yards per carry this season. His back up, Josh Anderson has also averaged over 5 yards per carry in limited carries, but that's far better than last years back up provided.
Western Michigan
Projected Rank: 91st Current Rank: 12
PJ Fleck is likely going to be looking for a Power 5 type job after the work he has put in at Western. The Broncos probably should not be on this list. Last year they were an 8-5 team, and they returned a lot of their depth, including Senior QB Zach Terrel, who is demolishing MAC opposition to the tune of 9.5 yards per attempt and 20 TDs to just one Int. He's been solid on third downs as well, converting 43% of his throws to first downs. I'm not certain WMU is good enough to keep up with some of the nation's best, but if they can go undefeated we might just get a chance to see.
Toledo
Projected Rank: 82nd Current Rank: 30th
The Rockets were expected to take a step back largely due to attrition. The program was going to be losing a lot of its starting production, and a lot of Juniors and sophomores littered the 2 deep. The offense though has not missed a beat, gaining over 56%of their available yards on offense. The ey factor though might be a defense that is allowing opponents to gain only 35% of their available ayrds, 24th in the nation. John Stepec and Teyvon Hester have been huge in this, each producing 4 sacks and combining for 16 tackles for loss.
Fallers:
Georgia
Projected Rank: 4th Current Rank: 71st
What a complete whiff for the program in predicting Georgia. A team it saw as being a playoff contender now sits at 4-3, and has to still play Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs pass defense has been just atrocious. Opponents are posting a 135.2 passer rating, due to completing over 61% of their passes for nearly 8 yards per attempt. Their own passing game has been pretty brutal as well, with Freshman Nick Eason hitting under 55% of his passes. Nick Chubb has also not produced so well in the running game. A year after averaging over 8 yards per carry, he's down to just 5 yards per attempt this year, and has found the endzone only 5 times.
Marshall
Projected Rank: 44th Current Rank: 110th
The Thundering Herd was seen as being a solid mid major team this year, but their defense has been a major let down. They've surrendered 53% of the total yards possible to teams, ranking 124th in the nation. They rank 98th in runs over 10 yards allowed, with opponents already having 46 carries ht that mark so far. They've also been bad on third downs, allowing opponents to convert on 41% of their opportunities.
The Michigan State
Projected Rank: 30th Current Rank: 90th
The Spartans are also having troubles for their typically sound defense. Opponents are converting nearly half of their 3rd down attempts, and they're averaging 4.8 points per Maroon Zone trip, 81st in the country. This though likely wouldn't be enough to sink Sparty to being one of the worst rated teams in the nation, if not for an offense that ranks 10th in efficiency. That is killing both their own field position and is setting the defense up for failure in their own endeavors. MSU has rushed for less than 100 yards on three occasions already, and going forward they will not be favored in a single match up,
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