NCAAF Week 6 Prediction

Home Team	Home Team Win Chance	Away Team	Away Team Win Chance	Home Margin
Iowa State	38.01	Texas	61.99	-3.6
Duke	63.23	Miami(FL)	36.77	4.1
Illinois	16.63	Nebraska	83.37	-11.7
Utah State	65.08	Brigham Young	34.92	4.5
Washington State	29.93	Southern California	70.07	-6.3
Florida International	95.99	Charlotte	4.01	20.9
Pittsburgh	79.6	Rice	20.4	9.8
East Carolina	7.08	South Florida	92.92	-17.5
North Carolina State	84.23	Syracuse	15.77	11.9
Kentucky	87.89	Eastern Michigan	12.11	13.7
Western Michigan	87.48	Ball State	12.52	13.8
Boston College	87.82	Central Michigan	12.18	14.0
Bowling Green State	28.13	Akron	71.87	-7.1
Massachusetts	10.78	Ohio	89.22	-15.0
Kent State	29.16	Buffalo	70.84	-6.5
Temple	9.11	Houston	90.89	-15.7
Cincinnati	59.6	Marshall	40.4	2.9
Kansas State	70.03	Baylor	29.97	6.3
Minnesota	63.04	Maryland	36.96	3.9
Rutgers	11.68	Ohio State	88.32	-14.4
Michigan State	42	Iowa	58	-2.3
Wake Forest	49.69	Florida State	50.31	-0.2
Wisconsin	96.67	Northwestern	3.33	21.8
Penn State	90.4	Indiana	9.6	15.7
Tulsa	19.32	Navy	80.68	-10.5
Southern Methodist	98.2	Connecticut	1.8	25.1
Wyoming	81.73	Texas State	18.27	10.9
UCLA	61.34	Colorado	38.66	3.3
Oregon	94.58	California	5.42	19.1
Oregon State	0.38	Washington	99.62	-32.3
Louisiana-Monroe	96.34	Coastal Carolina	3.66	21.8
Texas A&M	53.42	South Carolina	46.58	1.0
Louisiana State	94.12	Troy	5.88	18.6
Arkansas	94.75	New Mexico State	5.25	19.5
Nevada-Las Vegas	74.19	San Jose State	25.81	7.9
Army	96.42	Texas-El Paso	3.58	22.1
Florida	72.91	Vanderbilt	27.09	7.3
Tennessee	14.78	Georgia	85.22	-12.9
Southern Mississippi	77.38	North Texas	22.62	9.0
Louisiana Tech	77.29	South Alabama	22.71	9.3
Notre Dame	98.02	Miami(OH)	1.98	24.5
Florida Atlantic	80.58	Middle Tennessee State	19.42	10.4
Auburn	50.66	Mississippi State	49.34	0.4
Georgia Tech	60	North Carolina	40	3.2
Virginia Tech	24.2	Clemson	75.8	-8.5
New Mexico	17.89	Air Force	82.11	-11.1
Alabama	99	Mississippi	1	27.9
Texas Tech	37.04	Oklahoma State	62.96	-3.9
Stanford	73.67	Arizona State	26.33	7.8
Fresno State	96.65	Nevada	3.35	22.1
San Diego State	79.41	Northern Illinois	20.59	9.7
Hawaii	10.42	Colorado State	89.58	-15.2
Central Florida	91.99	Memphis	8.01	16.7
Louisville	99.99	Murray State	0.01	42.4

NFL Predictions Week 4

After a weird week in the NFL, that saw the Redskins demolish the Raiders, the Jags curb stomp the Ravens in London, and Case Keenum look like an all star, the program has started to identify teams it likes and dislikes.  I was very surprised at how much the program likes the Titans and dislikes the Texans so far.  That game might be more telling than we can guess early in the season.

NFL Post Week 3 Power Rankings

There are a few oddities that stand out early in the season, and this year s extra weird because the Dolphins and Bucs have missed playing a week.  There are a few oddities, but those I'm guessing will get ironed out in the next few weeks as we continue to see how teams respond.  The top of the list is a bit odd, but the Chiefs have been playing some of the best football this season, and the Raiders have been highly regarded despite a bad game against the Redskins.  The Jags stand out as an oddity, but they did win big this weekend, and also dominated the Texans Week 1. 

Team	Ranking
Kansas City Chiefs	1
Oakland Raiders	2
Washington Redskins	3
Philadelphia Eagles	4
Tennessee Titans	5
New England Patriots	6
Atlanta Falcons	7
Jacksonville Jaguars	8
Denver Broncos	9
Minnesota Vikings	10
Buffalo Bills	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13
Carolina Panthers	14
New Orleans Saints	15
Detroit Lions	16
Baltimore Ravens	17
Dallas Cowboys	18
Los Angeles Rams	19
Los Angeles Chargers	20
Green Bay Packers	21
New York Jets	22
Seattle Seahawks	23
Chicago Bears	24
Houston Texans	25
Miami Dolphins	26
New York Giants	27
Arizona Cardinals	28
Cincinnati Bengals	29
San Francisco 49ers	30
Cleveland Browns	31
Indianapolis Colts	32

NCAAF Post Week5 Power Rankings

As the preseason projections continue to fade out we really can start to see which teams are playing really well this season.  TCU is a surprise into the CFB Playoff if the season ended today, but they trounced OK State and beat up Arkansas pretty badly.  Also a little surprising is Ohio State, but they've trounced the teams they were supposed to and lost to Oklahoma, so the program can't find a ton of fault yet.  Likely after next week preseason projections will fade out completely, except maybe for teams that were affected by the Hurricanes, since they still need a little more tuning in data.

NCAAF Week 5 Predictions 2017

We're nearing the end of incorporating preseason predictions as teams start to leave non-conference play.  The program had a very good week last week, so I'm happy with the current mix.

NFL Predictions Week 3 2017

This is the last week that last season's data will be integrated into this year's predictions.  So far the program has been ok, but I'd really like to get a better early season model going.

NCAAF Power Rankings Post Week 4

Updated Rankings, with a much more clear picture asmost teams have played a pair of games.  We're also starting to see the pre-season projections fade out, so we're getting closer to a bit more realistic ratings.

NCAAF Predictions Week 4 2017

There are some oddities in here with some of the early season quirks.  But the program has been performing fairly well so far, so I'm inclined to believe it.  I do lean much more in on Tennessee, but we haven't seen that Florida offense with all its pieces yet.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Week 1 was filled with some stunning upsets.  However, we cannot allow that to completely shade how we view teams like the Pats, Chiefs, Jaguars, Falcons and Bears.  I think with the reduced offseason workload the first few weeks will see far more sloppy play and weird outcomes in the future.  For right now, I'm going to continue using the predicted numbers with a few tweaks.  Overall the program struggled last week, but I'm not so concerned (Although I do feel it is vastly overrating the Saints right now).

Post Week 3 Power Rankings NCAAF

The program does a pretty good job as the season goes on of correctly picking winners and ranking teams correctly.  Early on though it has some issues with some teams that surprisingly win big, oe when some teams have an early game and then don't play again for a few weeks.  With all of the cancellations due to Hurricane Irma, there is one oddity that I was not expecting.  The program currently has Memphis as the second best team in the nation.  This will obviously smooth out a bit as pre-season projections fade out, and especially strength of schedule gets corrected.

College Football Week 3 2017 Predictions

Week 2, as some will call week 1, is in the books for the college game.  We saw Alabama slowly grind down FSU, and saw Michigan stifle a weakened Florida.  The Buffs got off to a good start beating CSU, and the state of Texas saw itself play some really poor football.  The program acquited itself ok this week, a little low against the spread but right at about 86% straight up.  Some early season adjustments I think need to get added for early season Power 5 vs G5 teams.  Here are this week's predictions, which start to incorporate the scors, but it really doesnt affect the data.  Next week we'll start seeing some real adjustments though.

NFL Week 1 Predictions

After letting College Football shine in its first few weeks, the NFL kicks off this weekend with a whole lot of good matchups.  I am still trying to find an NFL model that does well early in the season, with the best so far being to use last season's predictions early on.  So Week 1 is likely going to go a little goofy.  Have fun though looking through them as we head into a great football weekend.

The Kitchen Restaurant Review

One of my favorite things about Wichita has been the revitalization of Old Town, especially along Douglas.  The area had looked run down for years, with the historic train depots sitting mostly idle and a lot of empty store front spaces.  One of the newest restaurants to take over a space in this area is The Kitchen, a New American restaurant that prides itself on using seasonal selections and a friendly atmosphere.

My wife and I went around 1230, deciding to get a nice lunch to celebrate our anniversary.  We were greeted when we came in by a call from the kitchen saying to seat ourselves at any open table.  Our server came over promptly and took drink orders, as well as our appetizer order (I have mentioned before my wife loves appetizers right?)  We settled on the spinach artichoke dip. 

The house made tortilla chips had a good crunch and the right amount fo salt.  The spinach dip was ok.  I think the amount of artichoke was a little low to the high amount of spinach.  Not bad, just not a show stopper.

My wife ordered for her lunch an ultimate grilled cheese sandwich, while I ordered the Italian Panini.  We both decided to up order to the side of fries, largely because the chips were a small bag of unknown distributor. 

I wish I had this a little less blurry, but I was holding the baby

Both our sandwiches were excellent.  Mine was stuffed with meat, and the mozzarella cheese was super melty.  The tomato tapenade was not really prevalent, but helped provide a little acidity to the sandwich.  My wife also enjoyed her's, which had a little more of the tapenade than mine did.  It featured Havarti, cheddar and brie inside of it.  We both agreed the fries were very good, with a good crispness and good salt.

All in all we had an enjoyable lunch  The wait staff was very friendly and  our wait was very short.  The dining room was at a great temperature as well.  The only complaint we had was the price.  My wife's sandwich was a bit small, and it was nine dollars.  Mine was well stuffed, but eleven dollars was pretty steep for a sandwich and chips.  Not the biggest complaint in the world but the value was not as high as I would have hoped.