Denver Broncos Rookie Predictions 2020

We're just about to kick off the first week of the NFL season, and its time to make some predictions about the rookies that might make some contributions to the team starting game 1 and all season.

Jerry Jeudy - 109 Targets, 73 Catches, 794 Yards, 5 TDS

Jeudy is a tough one to predict exactly where he;s going to be at.  The Broncos had been linked to a wideout all during the lead up to the draft, and there were a lot of people that thought Jeudy might be the best there was.  However, he steps into a shortened offseason with a QB who has 5 career starts, and is going to have to fight for touches with Courtland Sutton, KJ Hamler, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant at the TE spot.  He could potentially go the way of Mike Evans with Vincent Jackson, or peraps end up closer to Brandin Cooks in New Orleans.  

 

KJ Hamler - 62 Targets, 39 Catches, 598 Yards, 5 TDs

Hamler like Jeudy steps into a bit of a crowd of offensive weapons, and he's currently nursing a hamstring injury.  Hamler is a big play threat every time he touches the ball though, so he will certainly get looks.  He's had some issues with drops though, so I might be a bit high on his catch rate. 

 

Michael Ojemudia - 34 Tackles, 5 Passes Defensed, 1 Int  

Ojemudia steps into a potentially interesting role.  He profiles as a sort of combo CB/S like Kareem Jackson and Duke Dawson, players Vic Fangio likes to have.  With the somewhat srprising release of Bausby, Ojemudia might be able to wrestle the other starting job from Devante Harris.  If not though, he'll still likely be a good special team contributor.  

Lloyd Cushenberry - 16 starts, 3 Penalties

Cushenberry pretty easily took over the starting Center job in camp, and I was very high on him coming into the draft.  Easily my favorite pick of this draft.  Hopefully he helps to solidify a unit that has certainly struggled the last few years.

Mctelvin Agim - 13 Tackles, 4 Pressures, 1 Sack

Agim was a bit of a surprise pick, but he again fits a Vic Fangio type.  Playing mostly at DE in his time at Arkansas, he moved inside later in his career.  That versatility fits with Dre-mont Jones and Jurrell Casey as players that can be lined up anywhere.  He's in a  fairly heavy rotation and needs to develop better strength at the point of attack, but he could have some good flashes this year,

Albert Okweugbunam - 25 Targets, 14 Catches, 200 yards, 2 TDs

The Broncos reunited Drew Lock with one of his favorite targets from college.  Albert O however is inside one of the most crowded roster spots on the team now at TE, and the Broncos also have a full WR corps that will need touches.  He could do some damage though split out and creating mismatches with a 4.5 speed.

Netane Muti - 0 Starts, 0 Penalties

Muti spent a lot of time injured in college, but he was an absolute monster when he played.  The Broncos are fairly set on the interior line, so Muti will likely have a season to work on strength and maybe spot duty.

Tyrie Cleveland - 14 Targets , 9 Catches, 109 yards 

Cleveland makes the team as an absolute atheltic freak, testing in the 70th% in almsot everything at the combine.  He has raw talent, but this year will likely be more of a learning year and special teams contributions.

 

Derrek Tuszuka - PS 

Not really a big prediction this year, but its likely Tuszka sees some limited game time if there are any injuries to the OLB group.  But even with Bradley Chubb nursing a sore knee, his chances of supplanting Malik Reed or Jeremiah Attaochu is pretty low this year.

NBA Predictions March 10th to March 15th 2020

Another exciting NBA week, as we get the Celtics and Bucks squaring off on Thursday, along with Lakers-Rockets.  Utah and Memphis battle for what could be playoffs lives at this point, a day after the Jazz host the Pelicans. 

Date	Home Team	Home Team Win %	Away Team	Away Team Win %	Home Margin
3/10/2020	Indiana	47.18	Boston	52.82	-3.8
3/10/2020	Washington	61.02	New York	38.98	3.9
3/10/2020	Chicago	59.8	Cleveland	40.2	4.1
3/10/2020	Houston	73.85	Minnesota	26.15	11.2
3/10/2020	San Antonio	34.61	Dallas	65.39	-3.7
3/10/2020	Memphis	58.24	Orlando	41.76	0.0
3/10/2020	Portland	55.05	Phoenix	44.95	1.8
3/10/2020	Golden State	21.51	LA Clippers	78.49	-13.1
3/10/2020	LA Lakers	79.78	Brooklyn	20.22	12.8
3/11/2020	Atlanta	55.26	New York	44.74	4.6
3/11/2020	Miami	77.33	Charlotte	22.67	12.6
3/11/2020	Philadelphia	74.29	Detroit	25.71	11.3
3/11/2020	Oklahoma City	54.73	Utah	45.27	2.4
3/11/2020	Dallas	64.11	Denver	35.89	5.7
3/11/2020	Sacramento	50.34	New Orleans	49.66	-0.9
3/12/2020	Orlando	65.87	Chicago	34.13	6.2
3/12/2020	Milwaukee	68.35	Boston	31.65	4.1
3/12/2020	Portland	52.55	Memphis	47.45	3.0
3/12/2020	Golden State	40.76	Brooklyn	59.24	-4.5
3/12/2020	LA Lakers	69.33	Houston	30.67	5.0
3/13/2020	Charlotte	55.99	Cleveland	44.01	5.1
3/13/2020	Boston	79.4	Washington	20.6	12.4
3/13/2020	Miami	78.25	New York	21.75	11.5
3/13/2020	Oklahoma City	72.28	Minnesota	27.72	9.0
3/13/2020	San Antonio	43.78	Denver	56.22	0.3
3/13/2020	Utah	59.11	New Orleans	40.89	2.2
3/13/2020	LA Clippers	74.88	Brooklyn	25.12	12.7
2020-03-14	Dallas	73.67	Phoenix	26.33	10.8
2020-03-14	Atlanta	54.76	Cleveland	45.24	3.9
2020-03-14	Philadelphia	56.67	Indiana	43.33	4.4
2020-03-14	Toronto	80.03	Detroit	19.97	14.1
2020-03-14	Miami	73.21	Chicago	26.79	6.4
2020-03-14	Milwaukee	90.85	Golden State	9.15	20.4
2020-03-14	San Antonio	60.07	Minnesota	39.93	6.7
2020-03-14	Utah	63.85	Memphis	36.15	2.5
2020-03-14	LA Clippers	68.12	New Orleans	31.88	5.4
2020-03-15	Portland	41.98	Houston	58.02	-6.3
2020-03-15	Orlando	68.6	Charlotte	31.4	6.7
2020-03-15	Washington	35.29	Oklahoma City	64.71	-4.4
2020-03-15	Chicago	31.53	Boston	68.47	-7.4
2020-03-15	LA Lakers	72.38	Denver	27.62	7.9
2020-03-15	Sacramento	58.03	Brooklyn	41.97	3.0

NCAA Conference Tounrament Power 5 Predictions

We've come to the end of the conference tournament winners now with the Power 5 teams.  Next week I'll try to break down some of the teams that might be sneaking into the tournament, and where everyone sits as we approach March Madness.

Atlantic Coast
Winner: Duke
The Blue Devils continue to be one of the most efficient offenses in the country, this year ranking 10th overall by KenPom with an adjusted efficiency of 114.9.  They clean up on the offensive boards, nabbing 34.8% of their misses, and steals are the only way to generate turnovers from them.  The defense is there as well, with a top 10 defensive efficiency.  Duke has also been able to mitigate opponents from taking threes by defensing them quite well; opponents are only making 29.9% of their attempts.

The Louisville Cardinals will etst that 3 point defense, as they make 37.6^ of their shots from beyond the arc.  They dont generate many turnovers, but are quite adept at keeping opponent scoring inside down, allowing a shooting percentage of just 45% from 2. 


Southeastern
Winner: Kentucky
Teams have only shot 39.1% against Kentucky this season, and the defense has held teams to just 66 points per game.  On offense the Wildcats are adept at getting to the line, earning a shot from the strip on 41.5% of their field goals.  They also make nearly 80% of their attempts, and nearly a quarter of their points this season. 


Auburn is one of the most challenging teams in the SEC, thanks in large part to their ability to get to the line as well.  The Tigers dont make many 3s though, ranking 318th in 3 point shooting percentage.  Arkansas is another team that might be being slept on, thanks to a long skid mid season.  But they generate turnovers and defend the 3 very well.

Big 12
Winner: Kansas
The Jayhawks are Kenpom's top ranked team this season.  Thanks largely to a devastating defense, that has the 4th lowest EFG against at 43.7%, and excellent discipline not to foul (23.3% of shots get free throw attempts) this team is poised to be the top ranked in the Tournament come march.  They dont shoot overly well, with a 64.1% free throw percentage, but they;re efficient in their possession, ranking 8th overall in adjusted efficiency. 

The only other Big 12 team to beat KU this season has been Baylor, and the Bears are having an amazing season of their own.  They rank 4th in defensive efficiency, and force turnovers on 22.7% of possessions.

Pac 12
Winner:Arizona
This is the tightest conference the program has.  The Wildcats edge out the Ducks, thanks to a defense that allows  45.3 EFG%, and blocks 10.7% of shots.  They also do not turn the ball over on offense, with a 16.4% marks to rank in the top 10% of the country.  The Oregon Ducks are right behind them, as a team thats shoots blisteringly hot from beyonf the arc at 39%.  Finally, Colorado has a good shot if they can get of their recent skid, as a team that ranks 48th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.

Big 10
Winner: Maryland
The Terrapins have an offense that is ranked 24th in adjusted efficiency, despite positng a very middling 48.2 EFG%.  They do however get to the line at a good 37,4% clip, and dont turn the ball over.  Defensively they also dont give up free throws, and they make inside shots ery difficult.  Teams are only shooting 44.1% inside against them. 

Michigan State is the other defensive power house in the conference, as they allow just 28% from beyond the arc and 43.1% inside it.  This team is also very good at generating assists, posting a nation how rate of 65% of shot mad being assisted. 

NCAA Conference Predictions: Mid Majors Part 3

Into the last set of Mid Majors before their conference tournaments start.

American East
Winner: Vermont
The Catamounts allow just 59 points per game, and have one of the best interior defenses in the nation.  They block 10.5% of shots taken against them, and although they dont generate many turnovers, rank 53rd in defensive efficiency

Stony Brook is the most likely contender to knock off Vermont, but they shoot at sub 50% and while they sport a good defense, its unlikely to be enough.

Atlantic 10
Winner: Dayton
Dayton boasts the top ranked EFG% in the nation, coming in at a hot 59.7%.  They shoot exceptionally well inside, making 63% of their twos and an impressive 36.4% of threes they take as well.  Their defensive efficiency is pretty solid as well, ranking 5th in the nation.

Richmond is the only team the program likes to have a shot, since they don't turn the ball over and they rebound well.  The Spiders face a real uphill climb though, especially since they dont get to the line very often.

Big Sky
Winner: Northern Colorado
The Grizzlies are an interesting team.  They shoot fairly well, but their ability to defend the three is what makes them intriguing.  Opponents only take 23.7% of their shots as threes, and they only make 29% of them.

Eastern Washington currently is on top of the conference, but they have some short comings.  They dont shoot free throws very well, and they allow a few too many trips to the stripe.

Big West
Winner: UC Irvine
UC Irvine sits on top of the Big West.  They post a good defensive efficiency, and aloow just a 46 EFG%.  They do have some trouble turning the ball over, and dont force enough turnovers.

The program likes UC Riverside's defense quite a bit, but I dont think theyve got the horses to knock off the Anteaters.

Metro Atlantic
Winner: Siena
The Saints are a very middle ground team, that has a below average defense.  They are able to force a slow tempo, averaging 67 possessions in their games.  Rider has nearly the same chance as Siena, and they do it by getting to the free throw line, 40.8% of the their shots.  They run a high tempo attack, ranking 51st.

Mid Eastern Atlantic
Winner:Norfolk State
The MEAC is a pretty big dearth of offensive play with the best in conference being Norfolk, that ranked 318th in offensive efficiency.  The Spartans do force turnovers at a good rate, 21.6%, and opponents have only posted a 47.5 EFG%. 

Nipping at their heels are NC Central, who steals the ball 11% of the time and they actually have a decent inside game, shooting 52%.




Mid American
Winner: Akron
The Zips have been a good team all season, playing close with West Virginia and Louisville.  They're a well a balanced team, posting a 51.7 EFG% while also shooting about 44% of their shots from beyond the arc.  They also nail their free throws, hitting 76%.  The defense is efficient, ranking in the top 100 by KenPom.

Kent State is the most likely to topple the Zips, by virtue of being one of he better shooting MAC teams.  Bowling Green could force some things, but their defense is just not good enough.

Conference USA
Winner:Louisiana Tech
Tech is an interesting team, because overall they are a good shooting team, shooting 46.6% overall on the season.  But their free throw shooting is just bad at 66.8%.  Their defense is solid, with a turnover rate of 20.5% and a Defensive rating of 98.8 by KenPom. 

North Texas is the current conference leader, thanks to being one of the bets shooting teams int he nation.  They hit 37.5% of their threes, and they make up about 41% of their attempts.  They give up a lot of free throws though, and teams are hitting just about as many threes as the Mean Green are. 

NCAA Conference Predictions: Mid Majors Part 2

NorthEast
Winner: Robert Morris
The Northeast conference is fairly tightly packed.  The Colonials though are one of the better balanced teams in the conference, and they shoot 3s well.  They also generate shots typically on assists, with 64% of their shots made being assisted.  Defensively they force turnovers and don't foul too badly. 

The other balanced team in the conference is Sacred Heart, who is also an excellent rebounding team.  The Red Flash of St. Francis PA are also a tough beat, with a good offensive efficiency but a worse defensive output (allowing 51.3% EFG)

Mountain West
Winner: San Diego State
The Aztecs are one of the best teams in the nation overall, with just a heart breaker at home standing between them and an undefeated regular season.  They shoot well (54.8 EFG%) and don't turn the ball over (16.4%).  Malachi Flynn leads the team, and is one off the nation's top players averaging 18 a game and five assists.

Utah state likely poses the biggest threat, as a scrappy defensive team with some offensive moments.

Missouri Valley
Winner: Northern Iowa
The Panthers shoot lights out.  They make 39% of their 3 point attempts and have a number 7 ranked EFG of 55.7.  They dont generate many free throws, with a rate of just 28%, but they also don't give up points that way either.  A solid defense that doesnt generate many turnovers could lead to some questions though. 

Loyola-Chicago does force a lot of turnovers though, stealing the ball on nearly 12% of opponent possessions.  The Ramblers are also a good shooting team, with their own EFG% of 55.

Colonial
Winner: Hofstra
Hofstra has an efficient offense that shoots threes well.  They dont take a lot of threes (38% of their shots), but when they take them they make them.  The team also is excellent from the charity stripe, making 78% of their freebies.  The defense is a whole other matter though, where the Pride have not fair well all year.  They rank 256th in points allowed this season.

Northeastern  is their foil and likely toughest out.  They lead the conference in forced turnovers, and rebound exceptionally well defensively.

West Coast
Winner: Gonzaga
Another year where the Zags are one of the best in the nation.  They grade out as top in offensive efficiency by KenPom's metrics, with a blistering average possession time of 15 seconds.  They rank third overall in EFG, with a 57.7%, while also generating free throws on 38% of their shot attempts.  The defense is there as well, as they clean up the glass well and allow just a 47.3 EFG%.

BYU forces a lot of turnovers, and are an excellent offense on their own, making 42% of their three point attempts.

Sun Belt
Winner: Texas State
The Bobcats are a poor shooting team.  They rank 231st in EFG, and 250 in 3 point percentage.  On defense though they can be stfiling, surrendering just 64 points per game. 

Georgia State is a bit of a better shooting team, especially when they take threes.  They hit 37% and run at a high tempo, which makes them almsot as likely to win the whole thing. 

NBA Predictions March 2nd to the 8th 2020

The program expects quite a few blowouts this week, but we've still got some excellent matchups.  The Heat host the Bucks tonight in a game they could potentially steal to get back on track fully, and Tuesday night has the Thunder and Clippers square off in what could be a playoff preview.  The Nuggets desperately need to get 3 wins this week against 3 down teams to help lock up their playoff spot.  The week really caps off with Lakers-Clippers on Sunday, in what could be the series decider. 

Date	Home Team	Home Team Win %	Away Team	Away Team Win %	Home Margin
3/2/2020	Cleveland	31.27	Utah	68.73	-10.1
3/2/2020	New York	25.25	Houston	74.75	-12.4
3/2/2020	Orlando	58.62	Portland	41.38	5.8
3/2/2020	Atlanta	45.96	Memphis	54.04	-4.3
3/2/2020	Miami	31.64	Milwaukee	68.36	-4.3
3/2/2020	Chicago	31.04	Dallas	68.96	-6.3
3/2/2020	San Antonio	48.24	Indiana	51.76	-0.4
3/3/2020	Charlotte	41.2	San Antonio	58.8	-2.7
3/3/2020	Boston	76.2	Brooklyn	23.8	9.3
3/3/2020	New Orleans	69.49	Minnesota	30.51	8.1
3/3/2020	Oklahoma City	49.75	LA Clippers	50.25	0.6
3/3/2020	Denver	83.9	Golden State	16.1	15.5
3/3/2020	Phoenix	37.57	Toronto	62.43	-3.1
3/3/2020	LA Lakers	70.26	Philadelphia	29.74	7.7
3/3/2020	Sacramento	66.23	Washington	33.77	4.7
3/4/2020	Cleveland	23.35	Boston	76.65	-12.7
3/4/2020	Detroit	37.31	Oklahoma City	62.69	-5.9
3/4/2020	Miami	65.51	Orlando	34.49	4.7
3/4/2020	Brooklyn	58.36	Memphis	41.64	4.9
3/4/2020	New York	31.65	Utah	68.35	-9.1
3/4/2020	Minnesota	58.19	Chicago	41.81	5.6
3/4/2020	Dallas	68.89	New Orleans	31.11	8.4
3/4/2020	Milwaukee	79.5	Indiana	20.5	13.3
3/4/2020	Portland	63.73	Washington	36.27	4.4
3/5/2020	Charlotte	28.61	Denver	71.39	-11.2
3/5/2020	Houston	56.24	LA Clippers	43.76	2.1
3/5/2020	Sacramento	48.47	Philadelphia	51.53	-0.8
2020-03-05	Golden State	21.82	Toronto	78.18	-10.3
2020-03-06	Washington	60.64	Atlanta	39.36	1.2
2020-03-06	Brooklyn	56.18	San Antonio	43.82	1.1
2020-03-06	New York	31.8	Oklahoma City	68.2	-7.1
2020-03-06	Boston	66.4	Utah	33.6	9.4
2020-03-06	New Orleans	52.7	Miami	47.3	3.2
2020-03-06	Chicago	39.42	Indiana	60.58	-0.5
2020-03-06	Minnesota	49.98	Orlando	50.02	-0.1
2020-03-06	Dallas	74.97	Memphis	25.03	8.5
2020-03-06	Phoenix	57.39	Portland	42.61	1.1
2020-03-06	LA Lakers	46.26	Milwaukee	53.74	0.2
2020-03-07	Charlotte	24.11	Houston	75.89	-10.2
2020-03-07	Detroit	37.4	Utah	62.6	-5.1
2020-03-07	Cleveland	30.22	Denver	69.78	-7.4
2020-03-07	Memphis	66.87	Atlanta	33.13	4.9
2020-03-07	Golden State	29.19	Philadelphia	70.81	-8.1
2020-03-07	Portland	54.16	Sacramento	45.84	2.3
2020-03-08	Brooklyn	64.7	Chicago	35.3	4.3
2020-03-08	LA Clippers	52.86	LA Lakers	47.14	-0.8
2020-03-08	Minnesota	43.91	New Orleans	56.09	-3.0
2020-03-08	Boston	66.26	Oklahoma City	33.74	7.2
2020-03-08	Phoenix	22.53	Milwaukee	77.47	-14.5
2020-03-08	Dallas	65.8	Indiana	34.2	5.9
2020-03-08	Houston	72.94	Orlando	27.06	7.8
2020-03-08	Washington	39.05	Miami	60.95	-7.1
2020-03-08	Cleveland	42.43	San Antonio	57.57	-1.6
2020-03-08	New York	51.6	Detroit	48.4	0.0
2020-03-08	Sacramento	39.27	Toronto	60.73	-4.2