NCAA Tournament Biggest Upsets so far

Been out on vacation for what feels like forever, of which Ill probably have a few posts about to highlight some of the great things I was able to see and experience.  The only downside has been feeling way behind on the Tournament this year.  I got my predictions all done, but couldn't get a post together about it. 

The program often have a handful of simulations where the 16 seed advances to the Elite 8 in a region or even the final 4.  But its just not all that likely.  I tend to need to weigh these ad pick some spots where I think teams can get a jump, or that the simulations are too close and that might lead to an upset.  Here though are the ones the program missed so far that likely shouldn't have happened.

UC Irvine over K State

The biggest upset of the tournament so far, the Wildcats were predicted to be a roughly 18 point favorite by the program and had a 91.8% chance to this game.  UC Irvine is not a bad team by any stretch, being one of the better defensive teams forcing opponents to just a 43.7% EFG rate.  This ability to force opponents into bad shots exacerbated the offensive issues for the Wildcats, as they were also missing Dean Wade.  That suffocating Anteaters defense had K State shooting just 29% from 3, as Barry Brown and Xavier Sneed combined to go just 2-10 from 3 point range.  The Anteaters also were able to effectively get to the foul line, getting a free throw on 38% of their field goal attempts, compared to just 25% for K State.

Liberty over Mississippi State

The Bulldogs were one of the best offensive teams in the league this year, ranking 15th in Kenpom's Offensive efficiency and posted a 54.6% Effective Field Goal rate.  This and a pretty solid defense had lead them to be one of the better SEC teams this season.  The program had them as a 9 point favorite, with an 81% chance to win this game  But it didnt matter against the Flames, who were one of the best 3 point teams in the nation this year.  It carried over through this game, where they hit 48% of their threes, and limited themselves to just 10 turnovers.

Oregon over Wisconsin

This game makes it because of the score differential. The program had the Badgers as a roughly 4 point favorite, but had them winning roughly 68% of the time.  So an upset was not unconsionable.  But the way it happened in the second half is what caused this to mae the list. Wisconsin shot only 30% in the second half, while Oregon hit five of six threes and 70% of their shots overall.