NCAA Tournament Biggest Upsets so far

Been out on vacation for what feels like forever, of which Ill probably have a few posts about to highlight some of the great things I was able to see and experience.  The only downside has been feeling way behind on the Tournament this year.  I got my predictions all done, but couldn't get a post together about it. 

The program often have a handful of simulations where the 16 seed advances to the Elite 8 in a region or even the final 4.  But its just not all that likely.  I tend to need to weigh these ad pick some spots where I think teams can get a jump, or that the simulations are too close and that might lead to an upset.  Here though are the ones the program missed so far that likely shouldn't have happened.

UC Irvine over K State

The biggest upset of the tournament so far, the Wildcats were predicted to be a roughly 18 point favorite by the program and had a 91.8% chance to this game.  UC Irvine is not a bad team by any stretch, being one of the better defensive teams forcing opponents to just a 43.7% EFG rate.  This ability to force opponents into bad shots exacerbated the offensive issues for the Wildcats, as they were also missing Dean Wade.  That suffocating Anteaters defense had K State shooting just 29% from 3, as Barry Brown and Xavier Sneed combined to go just 2-10 from 3 point range.  The Anteaters also were able to effectively get to the foul line, getting a free throw on 38% of their field goal attempts, compared to just 25% for K State.

Liberty over Mississippi State

The Bulldogs were one of the best offensive teams in the league this year, ranking 15th in Kenpom's Offensive efficiency and posted a 54.6% Effective Field Goal rate.  This and a pretty solid defense had lead them to be one of the better SEC teams this season.  The program had them as a 9 point favorite, with an 81% chance to win this game  But it didnt matter against the Flames, who were one of the best 3 point teams in the nation this year.  It carried over through this game, where they hit 48% of their threes, and limited themselves to just 10 turnovers.

Oregon over Wisconsin

This game makes it because of the score differential. The program had the Badgers as a roughly 4 point favorite, but had them winning roughly 68% of the time.  So an upset was not unconsionable.  But the way it happened in the second half is what caused this to mae the list. Wisconsin shot only 30% in the second half, while Oregon hit five of six threes and 70% of their shots overall. 

NCAA Power Rankings, Predictions for Sweet 16

We have just 16 teams left after one of the most wild Tournament starts in years.  The first day went mostly as expected, but to see Virginia bow out to a 16 seed is just insanity.  We also saw Michigan State and Tennessee go down to much lower ranked teams.  Here's how the program thinks the teams stack up currently.

Team	Rank
Villanova	1
Duke	2
Purdue	3
Clemson	4
Texas Tech	5
Kansas	6
Kentucky	7
West Virginia	8
Gonzaga	9
Michigan	10
Nevada	11
Florida St	12
Kansas St	13
Texas A&M	14
Syracuse	15
Loyola-Chicago	16

We have some good matchups here, as every team has proven themselves to be battle tested.  The program does not like the Jayhawks chances, largely based on their high variance this season.  I'm not certain that I think the battle of the Wildcats will be so close.  I think Kentucky is quite a bit higher right now.

Team 1	Team 2	Margin	Team 1 Chance to Win
Loyola Chicago	Nevada	Nevada by 4	33.50%
Kansas State	Kentucky	Even	51.00%
Texas A&M	Michigan	Michigan by 2	56.60%
Clemson	Kansas	Clemson by 3	62%
Gonzaga	Florida State	Gonzaga by 3	63.20%
West Virginia	VIllanova	Villanova by 7	21.60%

NCAA TOurnament Regional Predictions

Another round of March Madness is upon us.  I've got charts for each team's chances to advance to the Final Four for their region.

 

Out of the East its no surprise Villanova has the best chance to advance.  They've been the programs top team almost all year and they dominated conference opponents all season.  They do face some steep challenges in WVU or Wichita State, both teams that rank in Ken Po's top 25.  They also have to deal with Purdue possibly, but the Wildcats should make it to another Final Four.

 

KU is the 1 seed, but an uneven season has them with just a 9.6% chance to reach the Final Four in the region.  The program still loves Auburn despite tehir late season struggles, but I am pretty confident Duke can get past Michigan State and get to the Final Four here, largely due to their ability to not give up freebies.  Just 22% of opponents Field Goals generate a free throw attempt, second best in the nation.

 

Virginia is an overwhelming favorite, but that is in danger thanks to an injury to Deandre Hunter should have expectations tempered some.  Virginia is the slowest tempo school in the nation, so losing their fourth best scorer is going to chip away at that facade.  If they stumble, Cincinnati has a good chance to advance thanks to Tennessee being the best team in their half of the bracket. 

 

Xavier has possibly the smoothest chance to get to the Final Four, but they'll face a tough matchup against UNC.The Tar Heels clean up the offensive glass, and are a seasoned team.  Xavier does rank 32nd in FT/FGA, and they don't give up freebies ranking 12th at just 24.8%.  Ohio State is a popular pick to get upset early, but the Buckeyes are one of the best shooting teams in the country (55% on all 2 point attempts).  Look for them to possibly be the best upset chance against Xavier.

NCAA 2018 First 4 Games Predictions

This should actually be a fairly competitive set of games to start the tournament off with.  While Radford should handle LIU-Brooklyn, it should still be a fairly close game.  UCLA and ASU both were huge bubble teams, and it'll be important for the PAC 12 to have both of them get wins.  They face tough competition though. 

Team 1	Team 2	Margin	Team 1 Chance to Win
Long Island	Radford	Radford by 5	32.50%
St. Bonaventure	UCLA	St Bonaventure by 1	52.50%
NC Central	Texas Southern	Texas Southern by 3	62.60%
Arizona State	Syracuse	Arizona State by 1	51.50%

NCAA Mens Charts: Championship Predictions

Our previous charting showed us that the top seeds have the best chance of getting into the FInal Four.  Its why they're the top seeds.   For each of them though, there's roughly even odds to win the title.  Villanova leads the pack with a full nearly 30% chance if they reach the Final Four.  This of course means just a bit over 9% overall, the best odds in the tournament. 

NCAA Men's Charts: Chances to reach the FInal 4

Its back to the Spring, which means that we're back to the best annual ritual.  The tournament is an extreme test of one off chances and craziness.  Teams that have no right being in the same gym as their opponents get hot and shoot lights out to knock out better teams.  We can try our bets to account for this, but its an exercise in futility to express anything in terms of absolute certainty.  Having said that, there's some pretty good odds that Villanova, KU, Kentucky and Gonzaga will be in the Final 4. 

Final Four Odds and Matchup Charts

A wild weekend sets up a very intriguing set of games for the Final Four.  Virginia blew a lead as their offense settled into a funk against the tremendous zone of Syracuse, while Villanova finished strong in both halves to be able to move past KU (who actually shot better than the Wildcats from the field). 

I've currently got UNC with a 36% chance to win the Tournament now, with Nova at 33% and Oklahoma at 23%.  The pesky Orange have a 7% chance of winning it if they can get past UNC (27% chance)

Currently only UNC provides a negative EV according to Vegas, with Villanova being pretty harshly underrated with the best EV mark currently.  They've also certainly got the tougher draw, in needing to stop the one man wrecking crew known as Buddy Hield.

Elite 8 Charts

A pretty boring Sweet 16.  Only the lower ranking games had any real excitment, with all the others ending as double digit blowouts.  We've still got three 1 seeds left, so hopefully we get some fireworks in before the Final Four.

 

The Jayhawks continue to be the most consistent team in the tournament, looking good throughout their game against Maryland.  The game started close, but KU was able to strangle the Terrapins offensive game at the start of the second half and pull away.  Villanova though poses a very real challenge, especially after how thoroughly they were able to beat a surprising Miami squad.  A game that saw the 'cats shoot 76.6% TS% will have them looking for the upset here.  In a toss up, Im sticking with the most consistent team.

 

The Tar Heels should have little issue dispatching the pesky Irish.  Notre Dame's downfall is a defense thats fairly porous, ranking only 128th in Defg% and failing to force turnovers, at just a 14% clip.

 The Cavaliers showed little trouble in frustrating an Iowa State offense that routinely put up big points.  They forced 12 turnovers, or 17% of Iowa State's possessions.  Syracuse has been a sticky team, after being left out in most prognostications of who would make the tourney.  If Virginia can be as efficient as they were tonight, this should not be close.

 

The second most intriguing matchup, the Ducks will meet the Sooners for the first time in the Tourney since 1939.  The Ducks do well not letting teams get to the line, posting a stingy FT/FGA rate.  But they are not always great on closing out on the perimeter, and Buddy Hield will make them pay.  The Sooners boast the second best 3 point percentage in the nation.

Sweet 16 Charts

After a pretty exciting first few days, the tournament has settled back into a bit more predictability, with the only real surprise matchup of Syracuse and Gonzaga as teams into the double digits surviving (and its not exactly like these are mid major nobodies).  This means we get a lot of great matchups throughout the rest of the tournament, and everyone will be tested before advancing. 

 

I had this matchup at start the tournament,  and I think it will be a great game.  Both teams operate at a good pace, and they match up well statistically.  I've still got Duke with a 58% chance to win, but this one should be good.

 

The two surprise teams remaining, the Zags and Orangemen are another pair of evenly matched squads.  The Zags though have proven to be the better team in the tournament so far, completely dominating a very good Utah squad.

 

A match up of old blue bloods, the Tar Heels have been great the past month, and after a slow start against Florida Gulf Coast they pasted Providence with a 114.9 ORTG.  I still have them into the Finals, with Indiana coming off a pair of tough games.

 

A sigh of relief swept through Cyclone nation as they avoided getting sent home early again, easily beating the would be Cinderella UALR.  Virginia also had a big sigh of relief, as they saw Michigan State go out int he first round, leaving them the undisputed top seed in the region.  These two teams play different styles, with Virginia ranking 351st in adjusted temp, and Iowa State at 56th.   I think Virginia advances, largely due to their consistent shooting.

 

This is the most lopsided game remaining by the programs standards, with KU boasting a 62% chance to advance against the Terrapins.  KU though actually boasts a worse effective field goal percentage, but they get to the line far more often, which should help them march on.

 

Miami is a bit of a surprise to still be here, but they jumped all over Wichita State and then held on to advance.   This game should see some good offensive work, with both teams ranking in the top 15 for adjusted ORTG, and the Canes have faced a lot of tough competition with a Pythagorean SOS ranking third.  Nova though is on another level, especially defensively.

 

In what looks to be the most evenly contested game, the Irish will try to get past the Badgers who are flying high after their last second victory over a very good Xavier team.  The Badgers again get to the line better than their opponent, and allow fewer trips to the chairty stripe than the Irish.  Badgers advance in a very, very tight game. 

 

 The Aggies have no real weaknesses in their game, but they will have to take down Buddy Hield if they wish to continue their run.  Overall the Aggies match up well, with their only real weakness being an inexplicable sixty some percent free throw percent team.  The Sooners have more holes, but Hield posts a 66.6% true shooting rate, which should be enough again to get to the Elite 8

Championship 2015

So we come to the final game of the season.  The program wraps a pretty successful season, going at about 70% in terms of outright wins, and about 60% against the spread.  It needs some tweaks for the power conferences playing against mid majors, but otherwise I'm pretty happy with its performance.  The tournament certainly needs some tweaking, but that's more accounting for wide variability. 

Duke vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Wisconsin by 1

Wisconsin has a 54% chance to win

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.7	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.7	94.26

Final 4 Charts,Data,Win%

Almost there.  Its been a pretty solid tournament for the program, and an overall very good season.  We'll see if it can get back on track with picking the Finals teams after getting beaten up in the Elite 8.  I again think here the program has picked a winner in each game.  The program has underestimated Michigan State all tounrament though, so it might be closer than it thinks.  I do think Kentucky gets past the Badgers in better fashion than 4 points.  Good offenses going cold in the tournament is far more devastating than a team giving up points on defense. 

Duke vs Michigan St.

Expected Outcome: Duke by 6

Duke has a 76.5% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07

Kentucky vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 4

Kentucky has a 67% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.26

What happened in the Elite 8?

An exciting basketball weekend, with an overtime game between two of the premiere coaches, a powerhouse team grapple to the death with its opponent, and an on fire shooting performance from a Junior.  All in all, it was a great time to watch.  It was also abysmally frustrating, as the program went 0-4 picking these games, and most of them werent close.  I always like to delve into the game specifics when that happens, to see why the program would have liked a team more and what caused the game to go so differently.  So, here are my observations for each game.

Arizona vs Wisconsin:  Both teams really played up to their offensive capacity here.  The game flowed more at Arizona's seasonl pace, but the Badgers took full advantage posting an effective field goal percentage about 13% higher than normal.  The driver of that was Sam Dekker going on fire from beyond the arc in the second half.  As the Badgers came out of the tunnel, Dekker had gone just 2-5 in the first half, missing his only three point attempt.  From then on though, he went 5-5 from beyond the arc, with a ridiculous .959 true shooting for the game.  Dekker basically won this game for Wisconsin, since he also got to the line on basically two thirds of his shot attempts.

Michigan State vs Louisville: This game I wasn't too surprised by.  Louisville had played a long tough game against NC State in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State is a formidable team.  This game though came down to a 7 minute stretch in the second half.  The Spartans played good defense, and Louisville went ice cold.  At about 14 minutes left, Blackshear hit three free throws.  Until 6 and half minutes, the Cardinals would make one field goal.  They missed 10 shots during that period.  Their three point lead turned into a four point defeceit. 

Kentucky vs Notre Dame: This game should have been a much bigger win for the Wildcats.  The Irish, despite being the best shooting team in the country had just a% effective field goal rate, and had three starters shoot at 35% or less.  Kentucky got to the line about 15% more of the time on their shots, outrebounded the Irish, and hit just as many threes on six fewer attempts.  Trey Lyles though had an awful game.  He more than doubled his turnover rate for the season, and was the low man for shooting amongst the starters.  That's the kind of perfromance from a player thats getting touches on almost 39% of the Wildcats' posessions that will make what should have been a clear victory come down to a nailbiter.

Duke vs Gonzaga: This game is one that the program had pegged as a clear blowout for the Zags, and they instead got taken to the cleaners.  Both teams shot well, keeping up with their season rankings as top 5 shooting teams.  The Zags downfall was an inability to get to the line.  They don't normally rely on the charity stripe, but if you can only draw nine fouls in the modern game, you arent going to win very often.  The Zags also couldn't force a turnover to save their tournament lives.  Duke turned it over just twice, while forcing thirteen of them.  Even with those failures, the Zags had a chance, with the game being an open layup away from being tied with five minutes left. 

Elite 8 Charts, Data, Win%

Things went fairly to plan in the Sweet 16.  Kentucky and Gonzaga easily handled their opponents, while a majority of the field was competitive through most of game time. The linear solver saw a closer game of Notre Dame and the Shockers, but the mid major darlings went cold shooting again (which was the same thing that had doomed them two years ago during their last Final 4 run).  Overall got 7/8 games picked correctly, with the Sooners being the only big swing and a miss.

Arizona vsWisconsin

Expected Outcome: Arizona by 1

Arizona has a 51% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Arizona	53.58	16.71	34.14	47.12	44.32	21.10	22.32	36.30	116.01	86.38
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.260

Duke vs Gonzaga

Expected Outcome: Gonzaga by 1

Gonzaga has a 52% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Gonzaga	58.44	16.27	33.87	39.13	43.59	17.62	28.62	31.64	119.44	93.43

Kentucky vs Notre Dame

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 10

Kentucky has a 88% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
Notre Dame	58.58	14.44	28.08	37.13	48.06	17.38	31.60	23.34	122.23	99.67

Michigan St. vs Louisville

Expected Outcome: Louisville by 1

Louisville has a 52% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Louisville	47.81	17.76	35.15	38.81	43.45	21.76	30.94	34.66	105.88	89.36
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07

Sweet 16 Charts, Data, and Win%

For the Sweet 16, I've prepared some matchup visualizations and my win percentages for each game.  So far this tournament I'm at about 75% correct going straight by the numbers. It's not overly impressive but that's why this tournament gets the ratings. The unexpected happens early and often. That number also is slightly better accounting for my east bracket. Which has zero teams besides the okies left. Everywhere else is in good shape to get my final 4 in and I think Gonzaga has a much better shot with UCLA than they did Iowa State .  

The following outcomes are produced by my linear ratings system. 

For each game the charts (and accompanying tables) cover the basic 4 Factors that Dean Oliver emphasized (Effective Field Goal Percentage, Rebounding, Turnovers, and getting to the free throw line), as well as offensive and defensive rating. 

Arizona vs Xavier

Expected Outcome: Arizona by 7

Arizona 79% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Arizona	53.58	16.71	34.14	47.12	44.32	21.10	22.32	36.30	116.01	86.38
Xavier	53.02	17.98	31.34	38.11	50.24	19.25	27.14	34.44	111.89	96.11

Duke vs Utah

Expected Outcome: Duke by 1

Duke 53% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Utah	55.59	17.84	31.29	42.85	42.71	18.25	28.11	34.50	113.05	90.57

Gonzaga vs UCLA

Expected Outcome: Gonzaga by 10

Gonzaga 88% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Gonzaga	58.44	16.27	33.87	39.13	43.59	17.62	28.62	31.64	119.44	93.43
UCLA	49.38	17.48	33.83	36.33	48.69	18.50	28.10	32.74	110.20	97.38

Kentucky vs West Virginia

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 11

Kentucky 89% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
West Virginia	46.58	18.75	40.88	40.43	52.62	28.17	31.06	55.94	111.25	95.42

Louisville vs NC State

Expected Outcome:  Louisville by 3

Louisville 66% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Louisville	47.81	17.76	35.15	38.81	43.45	21.76	30.94	34.66	105.88	89.36
North Carolina St.	49.57	16.19	34.13	36.21	45.52	15.44	30.41	34.10	111.47	98.20

Michigan St. vs Oklahoma

Expected Outcome: Oklahoma by 4

Oklahoma has a 67% to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07
Oklahoma	49.41	17.66	30.90	32.66	43.72	20.17	31.49	28.92	109.32	88.91

North Carolina vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Wisconsin by 4

Wisconsin 68% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
North Carolina	51.40	18.17	39.93	34.73	45.33	17.77	30.50	37.62	115.26	95.04
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.26

Notre Dame vs Wichita St.

Expected Outcome: Notre Dame by 1

Notre Dame 55% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Notre Dame	58.58	14.44	28.08	37.13	48.06	17.38	31.60	23.34	122.23	99.67
Wichita St.	50.68	15.23	34.78	35.41	45.16	21.64	27.02	36.85	112.98	92.93