With free agency all done, its now time to focus in solely on the draft. Denver did well to patch some big holes, but there's still a lot of spots that could use help. Overall, the strategy this year in such a weak top end QB class, should be to try and trade back and acquire more picks for this year and next. The Broncos have a lot of good talent, but a lot of spots are only one or two guys deep along the trenches, and at some other key spots. This is the year to fix the depth holes and either make a run with Flacco, or be prepared for a new QB next year.
Interior Offensive Line
For the Broncos this year, it all comes down to improving the offense. The QB position got a lift, and a new offensive coordinator should help. But nothing is going to get going if the interior is a sieve like it was last season. Matt Paradis is gone, and Ronald Leary is over 30 and recovering from a torn achilles. Mcgovern played well at guard last year, but was a disaster at Center, allowing 22 pressures in eight games once he took over the job. He has also struggled in tough yardage situations quite a bit through his career. The Broncos drafted Sam Jones as a developmental player last year, and Elijah Wilkinson provides a bit of opportunity to play Guard or tackle, but shouldn't be starting. Especially with Flacco now at QB, someone who does not move exceptionally well, Denver needs to get better here.
Defensive Line
The Broncos currently have 6 players listed on OverTheCap playing on the line. Only Zach Kerr and Demarcus Walker are signed past the end of this year. That could potentially leave some big holes, and the team already has some depth issues as Derek Wolfe has been a good player but has struggled with injuries the last few years. At current Denver should likely have a line of Wolfe-Harris-Gotsis to start with Kerr and Walker rotating. But Denver could stand to add another player that can play Nose to allow for a better mix overall, and provide some depth in case Denver can't get everyone re-signed.
Tight End
Going along with fixing the offense, one of the biggest components of the Shannahan style is a dynamic Tight End. Its been a staple of the play action game, and Joe Flacco has always been able to get the ball to tight ends as a favored target. The roster currently has Jeff Heurmann, Troy Fumigali and Jake Butt along with a few more camp bodies. All three players have now missed significant amounts of time in their young carers, and probably should not be counted on. This class is deep with tight ends, but Denver likely needs to spend a bit of a premium to get someone that can be a reliable target for years to come.
EDGE Depth
The Broncos have lived and died on their ability to generate pressure with their EDGE guys. Von Miller is one of the best in the league, and the Broncos spent a top five pick on Bradley Chubb who looked very good. Losing both Shane Ray (who had been disappointing) and Shaq Barrett though as quality depth players hurts this group a lot. Jeff Holland made an appearance last year and was good during training camp, but Denver needs more. This might be a position to double dip at to try and get the best value.
Inside Linebacker
This need is probably quite a bit lower than most folks have it, but Denver has some solid players here. Josey Jewell played well as a rookie, and has better short area mobility than many folks give credit for. Todd Davis might have made the jump from a role player to a legitimate starter last year. And Elway spent quite a bit of cash signing Alexander Johnson. Again, the issue here is depth. And while Jewell and Davis played well, they still struggled in coverage situations and Fangio asks a lot more of that from his interior backers. Finding a rangier linebacker should be on the radar.
Swing Tackle
The Broncos solidified their right tackle spot by signing JaWuan James, but they lost out on Billy Turner who went to Green Bay for a better chance to start. Denver likely needs to add some developmental depth here to insure for any injury.
QB
With the signing of Joe Flacco, this position is locked down for the year at least. That doesn't mean Denver wont go after a guy they really like, but it also gives space to not have to spend a top ten pick on someone who isnt going to be the answer. That doesn't mean though that Denver shouldnt try to add another player to the room though. Someone on day three to develop and potentially back up for a few years is good value.
Wide Receiver
Denver has currently four pretty good wide outs. But, Emmanuel Sanders is heading into the last ear of his deal and is recovering from an Achilles injury. Depth, and perhaps a true speed player should be added to help round out the group and improve the offense overall.
Secondary
This is an interesting positional group for Denver. They added some big name free agents, and Chris Harris is likely to be re-signed. Safety has two solid young players in Simmons and Will Parks, both of whom I think can be very good in a bot of a new system. But just about the whole group are free agents after 2020. This is a low need, but Denver could use a bit of a depth upgrade, and some insurance if Su'a Cravens is once again a let down. However, this probably jumps up a bit if Harris' contract dispute lingers.
Showing posts with label Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Draft. Show all posts
Saturday, April 13, 2019
Thursday, April 26, 2018
Denver Broncos Drafting since 2013: Has it been that bad?
This week, there has been a lot of focus on Denver's track record in the NFL draft under John Elway. Rich Hribar posted a tweet story detailing how every team has stacked up so far since 2013, and Denver is one of only three teams without a pro bowler during that time, and has one of the lowest rates of starts from their drafted players. One of the most damning charts though was a relationship between number of picls and their collective Approximate Value ( a metric by Pro Football Reference). Denver had was the furthest down and to the left of team's in the league. his meant Denver hasn't had a ton of picks, and they've scored low on that AV chart.
The question that MHR and several twitter followers posed then is when does this mkae a difference for Elway and his accountability? This is a good question to ask. But it first requires a delve into how some of these teams that have done better have done it, and why Denver might have fallen behind.
The first step is to examine the Average Value metric. A series of Blog Posts breaks down AV fully, but its enough to say that it gives a score based on points per drive and the league average thereof to each player based on their contribution. This metric is a good baseline, but its always going to suffer a little bit because it favors teams that are just better rounded, since the base score is based on how many points the team scores (or on defense, allows). Joe Thomas of the Browns for example, had just a few seasons scoring into the highest elite category, despite being one of the best Left Tackles in the modern era.
One of the reasons why Denver has been so shallow on this area has been because from 2013 until after the 2015 season, Denver was fairly veteran heavy. 2013 the team had just 4 rookies make an appearance, and two of them were RBs who were blocked out by Knowshon Moreno and the previously drafted Ronnie Hillman. The top end of the roster was just filled with guys either entering their prime or just nearing the end. For instance, Bradley Roby has accrued just 10 career AV points, but he had been trapped behind the best CB duo in the league for 4 years of his career. Looking at a team like the Jags, who come out n the best section of this chart, they've had their picks make 60% of their possible starts. Denver has had them start at just 37% of their game appearances. It has also helped Denver that some of their contributing young players were found outside the draft. CJ Anderson, Shaq Barrett, and Todd Davis were all undrafted players that have contributed a lot over the course of their careers so far.
One of the big spots it seems that has also derailed Denver's draft potential is injuries. Look at Ty Sambraillo, a tackle that got the starting nod after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2015. After 3 games however, he suffered a torn Labrium and was done for the year. This injury causes all kinds of setbacks to development, especially with the NFL's limited practice times. He then lost several more games in 2016 to an elbow injury, and never looked quite right. Other notables in this category were Shane Ray, Montee Ball, Devontae Booker, Jeff Heuerman, Cody Latimer all missed more than three games with various injuries in more than one season.
Another contributing factor has been the number of top 50 picks during that time. These are are the picks you would expect to be establishing themselves early on the roster, and playing a big role. For example, the Rams have had 8 players in that section to Denver's 5. These 8 players have accounted for 55.8% of the Rams AV over this period. Its been even worse for Denver, since they've had no pick earlier than 20. Something the Rams have had 6 of.
This isnt to say everything has been sunny for Denver's picks. They've overspent some draft capital on players like Cody Latimer that while regarded well at the time of the draft, were guys that I really cant see why they were well thought of. Denver has also whiffed on basically every offensive lineman theyve taken besides Matt Paradis. Sambraillo, Schofield, Vinston Painter and Max Garcia have all failed to be high end offensive linemen for the team. The biggest failure though might have been the miss on Paxton Lynch. If you look at every team in the good zone, they have a QB that has contributed quite a bit of AV. Paxton was a project when he came in, but he's failed to develop in his two years so far to a point where you might have faith he could turn it around.
Overall I think the problem hasnt been so much on Denver's evaluation of players, but rather of development and playing time. Denver needs to continue to solidify the offensive line, and get some depth to the defensive front seven. If they can do that, the next several years will likely see that career AV go up, as the team moves back to a younger team with players getting more play time.
The question that MHR and several twitter followers posed then is when does this mkae a difference for Elway and his accountability? This is a good question to ask. But it first requires a delve into how some of these teams that have done better have done it, and why Denver might have fallen behind.
 |
| The AV chart from Rich Hribar @LordReebs on twitter |
The first step is to examine the Average Value metric. A series of Blog Posts breaks down AV fully, but its enough to say that it gives a score based on points per drive and the league average thereof to each player based on their contribution. This metric is a good baseline, but its always going to suffer a little bit because it favors teams that are just better rounded, since the base score is based on how many points the team scores (or on defense, allows). Joe Thomas of the Browns for example, had just a few seasons scoring into the highest elite category, despite being one of the best Left Tackles in the modern era.
One of the reasons why Denver has been so shallow on this area has been because from 2013 until after the 2015 season, Denver was fairly veteran heavy. 2013 the team had just 4 rookies make an appearance, and two of them were RBs who were blocked out by Knowshon Moreno and the previously drafted Ronnie Hillman. The top end of the roster was just filled with guys either entering their prime or just nearing the end. For instance, Bradley Roby has accrued just 10 career AV points, but he had been trapped behind the best CB duo in the league for 4 years of his career. Looking at a team like the Jags, who come out n the best section of this chart, they've had their picks make 60% of their possible starts. Denver has had them start at just 37% of their game appearances. It has also helped Denver that some of their contributing young players were found outside the draft. CJ Anderson, Shaq Barrett, and Todd Davis were all undrafted players that have contributed a lot over the course of their careers so far.
One of the big spots it seems that has also derailed Denver's draft potential is injuries. Look at Ty Sambraillo, a tackle that got the starting nod after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2015. After 3 games however, he suffered a torn Labrium and was done for the year. This injury causes all kinds of setbacks to development, especially with the NFL's limited practice times. He then lost several more games in 2016 to an elbow injury, and never looked quite right. Other notables in this category were Shane Ray, Montee Ball, Devontae Booker, Jeff Heuerman, Cody Latimer all missed more than three games with various injuries in more than one season.
Another contributing factor has been the number of top 50 picks during that time. These are are the picks you would expect to be establishing themselves early on the roster, and playing a big role. For example, the Rams have had 8 players in that section to Denver's 5. These 8 players have accounted for 55.8% of the Rams AV over this period. Its been even worse for Denver, since they've had no pick earlier than 20. Something the Rams have had 6 of.
This isnt to say everything has been sunny for Denver's picks. They've overspent some draft capital on players like Cody Latimer that while regarded well at the time of the draft, were guys that I really cant see why they were well thought of. Denver has also whiffed on basically every offensive lineman theyve taken besides Matt Paradis. Sambraillo, Schofield, Vinston Painter and Max Garcia have all failed to be high end offensive linemen for the team. The biggest failure though might have been the miss on Paxton Lynch. If you look at every team in the good zone, they have a QB that has contributed quite a bit of AV. Paxton was a project when he came in, but he's failed to develop in his two years so far to a point where you might have faith he could turn it around.
Overall I think the problem hasnt been so much on Denver's evaluation of players, but rather of development and playing time. Denver needs to continue to solidify the offensive line, and get some depth to the defensive front seven. If they can do that, the next several years will likely see that career AV go up, as the team moves back to a younger team with players getting more play time.
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