Denver Broncos Drafting since 2013: Has it been that bad?

This week, there has been a lot of focus on Denver's track record in the NFL draft under John Elway.  Rich Hribar posted a tweet story detailing how every team has stacked up so far since 2013, and Denver is one of only three teams without a pro bowler during that time, and has one of the lowest rates of starts from their drafted players.  One of the most damning charts though was a relationship between number of picls and their collective Approximate Value ( a metric by Pro Football Reference).  Denver had was the furthest down and to the left of team's in the league.  his meant Denver hasn't had a ton of picks, and they've scored low on that AV chart.

The question that MHR and several twitter followers posed then is when does this mkae a difference for Elway and his accountability?  This is a good question to ask. But it first requires a delve into how some of these teams that have done better have done it, and why Denver might have fallen behind.

The AV chart from Rich Hribar @LordReebs on twitter

The first step is to examine the Average Value metric.  A series of Blog Posts breaks down AV fully, but its enough to say that it gives a score based on points per drive and the league average thereof to each player based on their contribution.  This metric is a good baseline, but its always going to suffer a little bit because it favors teams that are just better rounded, since the base score is based on how many points the team scores (or on defense, allows). Joe Thomas of the Browns for example, had just a  few seasons scoring into the highest elite category, despite being one of the best Left Tackles in the modern era. 


One of the reasons why Denver has been so shallow on this area has been because from 2013 until after the 2015 season, Denver was fairly veteran heavy.  2013 the team had just 4 rookies make an appearance, and two of them were RBs who were blocked out by Knowshon Moreno and the previously drafted Ronnie Hillman.   The top end of the roster was just filled with guys either entering their prime or just nearing the end.  For instance, Bradley Roby has accrued just 10 career AV points, but he had been trapped behind the best CB duo in the league for 4 years of his career.  Looking at a team like the Jags, who come out n the best section of this chart, they've had their picks make 60% of their possible starts.  Denver has had them start at just 37% of their game appearances. It has also helped Denver that some of their contributing young players were found outside the draft.  CJ Anderson, Shaq Barrett, and Todd Davis were all undrafted players that have contributed a lot over the course of their careers so far.

One of the big spots it seems that has also derailed Denver's draft potential is injuries.  Look at Ty Sambraillo, a tackle that got the starting nod after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2015.  After 3 games however, he suffered a torn Labrium and was done for the year.  This injury causes all kinds of setbacks to development, especially with the NFL's limited practice times.  He then lost several more games in 2016 to an elbow injury, and never looked quite right.  Other notables in this category were Shane Ray, Montee Ball, Devontae Booker, Jeff Heuerman, Cody Latimer all missed more than three games with various injuries in more than one season.

Another contributing factor has been the number of top 50 picks during that time.  These are are the picks you would expect to be establishing themselves early on the roster, and playing a big role.  For example, the Rams have had 8 players in that section to Denver's 5.  These 8 players have accounted for 55.8% of the Rams AV over this period.  Its been even worse for Denver, since they've had no pick earlier than 20.  Something the Rams have had 6 of.

This isnt to say everything has been sunny for Denver's picks.  They've overspent some draft capital on players like Cody Latimer that while regarded well at the time of the draft, were guys that I really cant see why they were well thought of.  Denver has also whiffed on basically every offensive lineman theyve taken besides Matt Paradis.  Sambraillo, Schofield, Vinston Painter and Max Garcia have all failed to be high end offensive linemen for the team.  The biggest failure though might have been the miss on Paxton Lynch.  If you look at every team in the good zone, they have a QB that has contributed quite a bit of AV.  Paxton was a project when he came in, but he's failed to develop in his two years so far to a point where you might have faith he could turn it around.

Overall I think the problem hasnt been so much on Denver's evaluation of players, but rather of development and playing time.  Denver needs to continue to solidify the offensive line, and get some depth to the defensive front seven. If they can do that, the next several years will likely see that career AV go up, as the team moves back to a younger team with players getting more play time.