NFL Havoc Rates Through Week 4

Havoc in football is exactly what defenses want to see, and what offenses want to avoid.  Havoc Rate is a metric that has gained a lot of following at the College level (Thanks largely to the work of Bill Connely), it measures tackles for loss, fumbles forced, and passes defensed to let us know just how often defenses are creating bad plays for the offense.

As we see here, the Steelers have been absolutely nuts in Havoc rate so far.  More than one in every five plays against them has been disrupted in some way.  Part of this is of course their matchups to start the year, with the Giants, Broncos and Texans all being teams that have struggled to start.  Most of the other teams above league average are teams people would expect to see there, except for maybe the Colts who have totaled 39 havoc plays, tying for 9th overall but 3rd in the rate that they happen.  

The offenses that have allowed the most havoc rate arent really a surprise when you look at the standings across the NFL.  The Giants have been the worst in the league so far, allowing just under 20% havoc on offense.  The Washingtn team that just benched their starting QB has also struggled to keep things on schedule.  A team that could see this rate drop significantly in the future might be the Broncos.  Faced with some early injuries on offense and matchups against some of the best Havoc creating teams to start, its not surprising they've been one of the worst so far.  But Drew Lock was taking snaps at practice again and might be back soon.  

A game that would have been very telling would have been the Titans-Steelers matchup.  The Steelers are excellent as noted above at generating Havoc, and the Titans are adept at avoiding it. 

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets Recap

 The Broncos got into the win column with a pretty solid performance overall on Thursday night against the Jets.  Brett Rypien had some moments in his first NFL start, as well as Jerry Jeudy making his presence felt.  Overall though, Tim Patrick stood out the most, running an excellent route to score a touchdown and going over the century mark in receiving yards.  The offense had 6 of 11 drives go for more than 50% of their potential yards, with 4 of them ending in Touchdowns.  They managed to put together three drives of 12 or more plays, and really kept the pressure on for most of the evening.  There were plenty of mistakes as well though, with three interceptions that almost proved costly if not for the Jets equally inept ability to hand out personal fouls (6 defensive personal fouls on the night).  Luckily Rypien now has some extra days to prepare for the Patriots, and they might be playing a very short week.  

The defense started exceptionally shaky, allowing Sam Darnold to put on his best Lamar Jackson impersonation.  But several key stops kept the Broncos ahead, despite giving up several big plays and 6 drives of their own of more than 50% of potential yards.  Bradley Chubb played well with a league wide high of 10 QB pressures, and the Broncos makeshift front did not allow the run game to get going holding Frank Gore to just 30 yards.  The secondary improved as the night went on, as Devante Bausby took over for an ineffective Bassey and provided several key pass breakups. 

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
NYJ	DEN	75	1	Touchdown	75	100	9
DEN	NYJ	92	1	Field goal	70	76.086957	12
NYJ	DEN	75	1	Punt	24	32	11
DEN	NYJ	70	2	Touchdown	70	100	4
NYJ	DEN	75	2	Punt	-3	-4	3
DEN	NYJ	65	2	Turnover	15	23.076923	2
NYJ	DEN	63	2	Field goal	55	87.301587	12
DEN	NYJ	75	2	Touchdown	75	100	11
NYJ	DEN	75	2	Field goal	55	73.333333	12
DEN	NYJ	75	3	Punt	-3	-4	4
NYJ	DEN	60	3	Field goal	46	76.666667	5
DEN	NYJ	75	3	Touchdown	75	100	14
NYJ	DEN	75	3	Punt	18	24	8
DEN	NYJ	44	3	Field goal	8	18.181818	3
NYJ	DEN	75	4	Field goal	39	52	6
DEN	NYJ	75	4	Opp touchdown	0	0	4
DEN	NYJ	75	4	Turnover	14	18.666667	4
NYJ	DEN	44	4	Field goal	25	56.818182	5
DEN	NYJ	75	4	Field goal	40	53.333333	9
NYJ	DEN	75	4	Turnover on downs	18	24	7
DEN	NYJ	43	4	Touchdown	43	100	1
NYJ	DEN	75	4	Turnover on downs	6	8	5

Denver Bronocs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Recap

 The Broncos continued their struggles this past weekend, as Jeff Driskel showed he was not the answer until Drew Lock returns.  The offense had 8 of their 11 drives gain less than half of their potential yards, which is pretty terrible.  Not one player really stood out for good play, as Noah Fant dropped a couple of must have passes and nothing got going. There also is some disappointment with the relatively little use of KJ Hamler, despite his playing nearly every snap (5 targets, 1 rush). 

On defense, 6 of the 11 drives for the Bucs gained fewer than half of their potential yards which is not bad.  However the defense continued to be eaten up by crossing routes with Tom Brady consistently able to find TEs and Chris Godwin open against Jewell and Johnson.  Justin Simmons also had a fall back this week, with some tough assignments and a really bad looking at attempt at man coverage with Mike Evans in the endzone.  The big brightspot this week had to be Shelby Harris, who continues to be a disruptive player on an ailing front.

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
DEN	TB	75	1	Punt	18	24	7
TB	DEN	10	1	Touchdown	10	100	3
DEN	TB	75	1	Punt	-1	-1.333333	3
TB	DEN	72	1	Punt	20	27.777778	6
DEN	TB	84	1	Punt	2	2.380952	3
TB	DEN	54	1	Field goal	30	55.555556	11
DEN	TB	75	1	Field goal	37	49.333333	6
TB	DEN	75	2	Touchdown	75	100	12
DEN	TB	75	2	Punt	-5	-6.666667	3
TB	DEN	56	2	Touchdown	56	100	6
DEN	TB	75	2	Touchdown	75	100	10
TB	DEN	75	3	Punt	26	34.666667	6
DEN	TB	92	3	Safety	-8	-8.695652	4
TB	DEN	75	3	Punt	18	24	5
DEN	TB	85	3	Punt	8	9.411765	3
TB	DEN	67	3	Punt	9	13.432836	4
DEN	TB	80	3	Turnover	25	31.25	6
TB	DEN	55	3	Field goal	38	69.090909	6
DEN	TB	75	4	Punt	6	8	6
TB	DEN	72	4	Punt	3	4.166667	5
DEN	TB	73	4	Turnover	60	82.191781	15
TB	DEN	71	4	End of half	27	38.028169	6

 

Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers Recap

The Broncos continue to be bit by missed plays and injuries, as now they will be missing Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton for an extended period of time.  This game felt a lot like some Death by Inches, as just a few made plays here and there would have turned this game into a victory.

Both offenses struggled a bit to move against these defense, as Denver picked up 37.9% of their potential yards , and Pittsburgh garnered 38.6%.  Denver actually was a bit more consistent in picking up yards, with their median potential yards gained at 36% vs the Steelers, but the negative plays hurt the Broncos the most.  12 of their 75 plays went for negative gains, as opposed to just 7 for Pittsburgh.  A lot of this was on Jeff Driskel, but its also tough to expect a lot from the veteran backup in a shortened offseason and few reps during the week.

The bright for this weekend remained the defense.  They did not allow the Steelers to have a drive over 9 plays, which gave the offense more chances.  The run defense continued to be solid, allowing one big run by Conner but otherwise holding him to just over 3 yards per carry on his other runs.  The pass rush was missing though, with just a single sack and by my eye just a couple of pressures. Michael Ojemudia had a rough game as well filling in for AJ Bouye, but he also was close on several plays.  Hopefully Bouye can return soon and allow Ojemudia to not be forced to stick with a team's top receiver all game.

This next week Denver faces a familiar foe in a new place, and hopefully will have a bit better timing on offense with Driskell getting a whole week.

Offense	Defense	Start	Yards Gained	Result	Plays	Potential Yards	Percent Gained
Pittsburgh	Denver	23	8	Punt	3	77	10.38961039
Pittsburgh	Denver	41	59	Touchdown	9	59	100
Pittsburgh	Denver	17	-8	Punt	3	83	-9.638554217
Pittsburgh	Denver	22	32	Punt	8	78	41.02564103
Pittsburgh	Denver	16	84	Touchdown	1	84	100
Pittsburgh	Denver	48	-2	Punt	3	52	-3.846153846
Pittsburgh	Denver	89	8	Field Goal	4	11	72.72727273
Pittsburgh	Denver	35	-1	End of Half	1	65	-1.538461538
Pittsburgh	Denver	47	5	Interception	5	53	9.433962264
Pittsburgh	Denver	25	40	Downs	9	75	53.33333333
Pittsburgh	Denver	25	75	Touchdown	9	75	100
Pittsburgh	Denver	52	0	Fumble	1	48	0
Pittsburgh	Denver	25	15	Punt	4	75	20
Pittsburgh	Denver	26	67	End of Game	5	74	90.54054054
Denver	Pittsburgh	20	29	Punt	6	80	36.25
Denver	Pittsburgh	33	34	Fumble	6	67	50.74626866
Denver	Pittsburgh	20	28	Punt	5	80	35
Denver	Pittsburgh	64	5	Field Goal	5	36	13.88888889
Denver	Pittsburgh	11	15	Punt	6	89	16.85393258
Denver	Pittsburgh	25	35	Missed FG	5	75	46.66666667
Denver	Pittsburgh	20	0	Interception	1	80	0
Denver	Pittsburgh	25	7	Punt	4	75	9.333333333
Denver	Pittsburgh	59	31	Field Goal	10	41	75.6097561
Denver	Pittsburgh	35	65	Touchdown	6	65	100
Denver	Pittsburgh	13	-13	Safety	4	87	-14.94252874
Denver	Pittsburgh	46	54	Touchdown	6	54	100
Denver	Pittsburgh	18	56	Downs	11	82	68.29268293