NFL Havoc and Success Rates through Week 15

As we close in on the end of the season, the teams that got out to early good rates have stayed there for the most part.  The Steelers defense has continued to be dominant at both creating havoc and keeping teams from staying on schedule.  Unlike themselves for most of the past decade, the Patriots have just been one of the worst defenses this season in both terms of stopping opponents and at creating havoc.  On Offense, the Packers continue to be one of the best overall, and the Bills might be a real contender with the play of Josh Allen this season.  The Cardinals have been a surprise this year, in that their havoc rate allowed is very low, but they continue to be one of the less successful teams at success rate. 

 

 

 

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Drive Stats and Recap

 Yesterday was a tough game all around.  The defense allowed the Bills to gain 82% of their potential yards, and the offense only gained 25%.  The Bills averaged almost 10 plays per drive, and the Broncos without a majority of their corner were just no match.  Missing Brandon McManus also was rough, as their should have been 3 points on the board after Denver's first drive.  

The first half was actually tight, as Denver was able to gain 41% of their yards.  But the wheels came off in the second half as the Bills tightened up and the Broncos followed a fumble with a quick three and out punt.  That pretty much ended it.  Lock was ok through most of the game, but had a few late out route throws that could have been picked.  It was just not a sharp day for the receivers either, with several drops.  This is bound to happen against a Super Bowl contender and a team that is held together with duct tape and rookies.

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
DEN	BUF	75	1	Missed field goal	42	56.0	9
BUF	DEN	59	1	Touchdown	59	100.0	15
DEN	BUF	75	1	Punt	25	33.3	5
BUF	DEN	95	1	Touchdown	95	100.0	12
DEN	BUF	75	2	Punt	0	0.0	3
DEN	BUF	35	2	Touchdown	35	100.0	6
BUF	DEN	76	2	Punt	4	5.3	3
DEN	BUF	95	2	Punt	2	2.1	3
BUF	DEN	59	2	Touchdown	59	100.0	8
DEN	BUF	75	2	Touchdown	75	100.0	15
BUF	DEN	43	3	Touchdown	43	100.0	8
DEN	BUF	75	3	Opp touchdown	-4	-5.3	1
DEN	BUF	75	3	Punt	-2	-2.7	3
BUF	DEN	68	3	Turnover on downs	64	94.1	5
DEN	BUF	96	3	Punt	1	1.0	4
BUF	DEN	58	3	Field goal	49	84.5	12
DEN	BUF	75	3	Punt	14	18.7	6
BUF	DEN	95	4	Field goal	86	90.5	11
DEN	BUF	75	4	Touchdown	75	100.0	13
BUF	DEN	51	4	Touchdown	51	100.0	1
DEN	BUF	75	4	End of half	5	6.7	3

NFL Havoc and Success Rates through Week 14

 The Steelers defense that had looked so good throughout the season suffered a real set back against the Bills this past week, especially in the third quarter as Josh Allen had a 90% success rate on his dropbacks.  Washington though continues to string together impressive defensive performances, holding the 49ers to just 15 points this week. 

On the flip side, the Bills now boast the highest success rate in the league, thanks in no small part to a nearly 8% explosive play rate, trailing just the Chiefs.  The Packers continue to remain by themselves in not allowing Havoc, and their success rate is fourth best because of it.

 

Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers Recap and Drive Stats

The Broncos offense had its best day, likely in the past few years.   Five of their nine drives gained at least 50% of their potential yards, and they had just one drive under 20%, the very rough second to last drive near the goalline.  Overall they gained 63% of their potential yards, and Drew Lock hit plays both big and small.  The run game was also solid when Melvin Gordon was running, picking up over five yards per carry.  Phillip Lindsay struggled though, going just 24 yards on his 11 carries.  It was a great surprise that the offense was as smooth as it was, since they were without Garrett Bolles, and Graham Glasglow due to illness and injury.  This sort of performance from Lock and Pat Shurmur gives hope that things are starting to click, and this weekend against the Bills will be a good test as to how far they are.

The defense had some issues as the game went on, largely due to secondary depth and guys just starting to wear down.  The Panthers had two drives in the first half get at least 50%, and the other three at 25% or less.   The second half lead off with a Carolina stop, but Denver didn't get a hold again until the last drive of the game, when they forced a throw short of the sticks on fourth down.  Denver had a Havoc rate of 11.8%, which is about what the Panthers offense had been allowing so far this season.  Overall a solid effort, especially with some of the limitations of  losing another two defensive backs during the game. 

 

Offense	Defense	Start Line	Quarter	Result	Yards Gained	Potential Gained	Play Count
DEN	CAR	75	1	Punt	18	24.0	6
CAR	DEN	79	1	Opp touchdown	6	7.6	3
CAR	DEN	86	1	Punt	44	51.2	8
DEN	CAR	91	1	Punt	19	20.9	5
CAR	DEN	68	1	Punt	16	23.5	6
DEN	CAR	90	2	Turnover	47	52.2	12
CAR	DEN	3	2	Touchdown	3	100.0	2
DEN	CAR	75	2	Touchdown	75	100.0	15
CAR	DEN	75	2	End of half	19	25.3	6
CAR	DEN	75	3	Punt	-5	-6.7	4
DEN	CAR	63	3	Touchdown	63	100.0	4
CAR	DEN	75	3	Field goal	58	77.3	10
DEN	CAR	75	3	Touchdown	75	100.0	9
CAR	DEN	75	3	Touchdown	75	100.0	9
DEN	CAR	75	4	Punt	19	25.3	6
CAR	DEN	82	4	Field goal	74	90.2	10
DEN	CAR	75	4	Touchdown	75	100.0	3
CAR	DEN	75	4	Touchdown	75	100.0	5
DEN	CAR	93	4	Punt	-2	-2.2	6
CAR	DEN	73	4	Turnover on downs	3	4.1	4

 

Star Wars Armada: First game in in the 1.5 era

 It has been  a long time since I've played Armada.  The last battle report that I wrote up was in 2018.  And there was maybe a game or two in there since then.  Following our Corellian Conflict campaign and the birth of my daughter, Armada just sort of fell off for other board games and Legion really.  But, with the launch of the Clone Wars expansions and the 1.5 rules update, it felt like it was time to get in some action.  

For the occasion I broke out an old stand by kind of list, and Ackbar side arc shooter. 

MC30c Scout Frigate (69)
• Caitken and Shollan (6)
• Linked Turbolaser Towers (7)
• Foresight (8)
= 90 Points

CR90 Corvette A (44)
• Ahsoka Tano (2)
• Turbolaser Reroute Circuits (7)
= 53 Points

CR90 Corvette A (44)
• Linked Turbolaser Towers (7)
• Jaina's Light (2)
= 53 Points

Assault Frigate Mk2 B (72)
• Admiral Ackbar (38)
• Expert Shield Tech (5)
• Gunnery Team (7)
• Early Warning System (7)
• Linked Turbolaser Towers (7)
= 136 Points

GR-75 Medium Transports (18)
• Leia Organa (3)
• Comms Net (2)
= 23 Points

Squadrons:
• 4 x A-wing Squadron (44)
= 44 Points

Total Points: 399

Basically keep things in the side arc and shoot.  The MC30 is a little odd in this fleet, but I always like having a ship with a sizeable black die pool to help keep folks out of the area with it, and with the change to Evades Foresight feels pretty darn good now.  My opponent brought a two raider, Demolisher, and ISD Cymoon list.  His fighter component was a unique heavy group, with Maarek, Jendon, Cienna and Saber squadron.  His Cymoon was very light, carrying just Ozzel and some other upgrade card that I dont remember.  I ended up as second player, and he picked Rift Assault from Planetary Ion Cannons and Superior positions.  

 Overall the game was a bit of a mess, as we both were super rusty and had to keep checking the rules to make sure what we were doing was correct. We ended up essentially with the Assault Frigate, MC30 and Jainas Light taking on Demo and the ISD with the other CR90 tying up the Raiders and Squads for most of the game.  Ackbar remains the king of  being able to pile up punishment, as Demo and the ISD went down with Foresight and Jaina's Light holding on to 1 hull apiece for the exchange.  It ended up 290-180 for my fleet, with both Jaina and the other CR90 succumbing to wounds in rounds 4 and 6 respectively.  

I'm excited to have gotten a game in again after such a long time, and hopefully it will lead to some more going down as the New Year starts.