NBA Conference Charts and Predictions

The semifinals for each conference provided some pretty entertaining basketball.  The Warriors and Grizzlies played a truly gritty series, but the Griz didnt have the talent to counter one of the best coaching moves we've seen in the last 15 years from an NBA coach.  The Cavs were able to advance despite some vintage Derrick Rose moments, and did so in part because Lebron showed why a lot of coaches don't really matter in the modern NBA.  The Hawks looked DOA, but have continued to roll on (if John Wall and Beasley are healthy this series probably goes 7, and the Hawks might have been headed home).

For the program, it correctly picked three of the four series.  And it did also have the Clips and Rockets with the most competitive series.  On a game to game basis the program struggles a bit in the playoffs, just because it uses seasonal data.  I'm wondering if there needs to be a real weighting for the previous round/ games in this series to improve it.

Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Hawks Win Chance at home: 57.7%

Cavaliers Win Chance at home: 56.8%

Cavaliers win 50.7% of the time

Most commonly in 7 games

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	DTOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Atlanta Hawks	52.7	13.5	20.1	21.4	49.2	14.9	18.5	73.4	108.9	103.1	93.9
Cleveland Cavaliers	52	13.4	21.6	26.8	50.2	12.6	17.7	74.7	111.1	106.3	92.3

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

Warriors Win Chance at home: 74.9%

Rockets Win Chance at home: 38.2%

Warriors win 83.7% of the time

Most commonly in 5 games

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	DTOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Golden State Warriors	54	13.1	18.4	24.1	47	14.3	21.7	74.5	111.6	101.4	98.3
Houston Rockets	51.2	15	22.3	26.8	48.6	14.6	20.8	72.9	107	103.4	96.5

In summation, it looks like we will be seeing the Warriors in the finals, but its basically a complete toss up with the Cavs and Hawks.  If Kyrie Irving cant go, I think its definitely the Hawks stepping forward.

Los Links May 7th

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NBA Regular Season Ratings Charts

I always love playing around with stuff in R, especially the plotting.  I'm currently working on a way to use R Charts and incorporate some interactivity in the future, but for now here's how each team stacked up in terms of ratings during the season.

Its amazing how far ahead the Warriors were all season long.  They started out at the top and just held on there all season long.  You can also see the Mavs, and Raptors downward trend all season long.  The team I'm going to watch really closely this off season is the Jazz.  Their trend all season was just progressively getting better, and they're a team with a good young core.

NBA 2nd Round Charts and Series Predictions

Well, the NBA playoffs march on, with only a few real surprises in the first round.  The Raptors again have had a disappointing exit from the post season, and there will certainly be some questions after the utter meltdown by Kyle Lowry in their sweep at the hands of the Wizards.  Lowry shot at less than 30% in the series as the Raptors struggled to get into an offensive rhythm, and allowed the Wizards to eat up the Raptors defense.

The program's biggest whiff was the Blazers in their series.  Some elements of that team were a little nicked up, but for the most part the Blazers looked completely incompetent against the Grizzlies.  Aaron Afflalo, a favorite of mine from his days in a Nuggets uniform was plain awful in his limited action, while the rest of the offense just couldn't find its stroke.

The rest went to chalk, with most of the west being pretty competitive (including the Warriors and Pelicans being better than expected), and the East being sweeps.  So, onto the 2nd Round.

Atlanta vs Washington

 Hawks Win Chance at Home: 68.7%

Wizards Win Chance at Home: 44.5%

Hawks win: 73.4% of the time
Most Commonly in 6 Games

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Atlanta Hawks	52.7	13.5	20.1	21.4	49.2	14.9	18.5	73.4	108.9	103.1	93.9
Washington Wizards	49.9	14	19.2	24.9	48.1	12.9	21	77.3	103.7	103	93.7

Chicago vs Cleveland

Bulls Win Chance at Home: 51.6%

Cavs Win Chance at Home: 60.4%

Cavs Win series:58% of the time
Most Commonly in 6 games

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Chicago Bulls	48.9	12.9	23.8	27	47.3	11.3	18.2	74.4	107.5	104.3	92.8
Cleveland Cavaliers	52	13.4	21.6	26.8	50.2	12.6	17.7	74.7	111.1	106.3	92.3

Los Angeles vs Houston

 Clippers Win Chance at Home: 64.7%

Rockets Win Chance at Home: 49.3%

Clippers Win series: 68.5% of the time
Most Commonly in 7 games

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Los Angeles Clippers	53.3	11.6	21.5	22.8	49.3	13.2	23.1	75.7	112.4	105.5	94.7
Houston Rockets	51.2	15	22.3	26.8	48.6	14.6	20.8	72.9	107	103.4	96.5

Golden State vs Memphis

 Warriors Win Chance at Home: 73.4%

Pelicans Win Chance at Home: 38.7%

Warriors Win series: 82.5% of the time
Most Commonly in 5 games

Team	EFG%	TOV%	FTRate	OReb	DEFG%	D TOV%	D FTRate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Golden State Warriors	54	13.1	18.4	24.1	47	14.3	21.7	74.5	111.6	101.4	98.3
Memphis Grizzlies	48.9	12.6	21.4	24.7	49.2	14.5	18.3	75.3	105.7	102.2	92

To recap, The Warriors should be able to move through their series without much issue (especially if Andrew Bogut continues to play well).  The Clippers should advance, but watch Chris Paul's health heading forward.  I'm not certain I like the Hawks prediction so much, they looked just average against the Nets, and the Wizards played very well against Toronto.