NBA Playoff Predictions 2019 First Round

Predictions and team charts for each of the first round matchups.  Program has most of the series going chalk, although the Pacers over the Celtics would be a welcome surprise.  The Jazz also find themselves in a tough battle with the Rockets, which might be a closer series than anyone is expecting.

Philadelphia Series Wins: 60.7% vs Brooklyn
Average Games Needed: 6

Toronto Series Wins: 66.1% vs Orlando
Average Games Needed: 5




Indiana Series Wins: 52.8% vs Boston
Average Games Needed: 7






Milwaukee Series Wins: 69.4% vs Detroit
Average Games Needed: 5


Golden State Series Wins: 71.8% vs LAC 
Average Games Needed: 4



Denver Series Wins: 61.5% vs San Antonio
Average Games Needed: 6






Houston Series Wins: 56.1% vs Utah
Average Games Needed: 6



Portland Series Wins: 61.5% vs Oklahoma City
Average Games Needed: 5

NFL Conference Champions Predictions 2019

Conference Championships are here and we've got a paire of great games.  While the Chiefs are heavily favored, the Pats did win the game earlier this year.  Can Brady pull off a little magic against a Chiefs D that has looked rejuvenated this season?  The Rams also face a tough task heading to New Orleans, needing to beat a Saints team that beat them already. 

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Predictions 2019

After a whopping miss on everything last week, I felt a bit discouraged.  But it also took some crazy end game antics and Deshaun Watson having one of his worst games as a pro, so hopefully my luck evens out a bit this week.  Trying something a bit new this week as well, plots of the expected scoring distributions.  I'm going to mess with some of the axes a bit for next season, but for now each game is binned into rough 5 points.  Its a bit large so I put them after the jump.

NBA Finals Predictions

The NBA Finals are back with the same match up for a third year in a row.  Color me a bit unexcited as really the worst Cavs team now matches up against the same basic Warriors team from last year. 

Warriors win 67% of the time in 6 games

The program really does not give the Cavs much of a chance here.  Sure, they'll likely steal a couple because Lebron will do Lebron things, but that's pretty much it.  The Cavs have had a couple of players step up at different times throughout these playoffs, but its been the unmitigated hero ball of Lebron that has salvaged what should have been a wrecked season. 

The Warriors will likely try to keep up the pace that theyve run at this post season, averaging almost 100 possessions a game.  The Cavs have been a little bit better than the Warriors in transition this playoffs, posting a 131 ORtg, but noone has been better than the Warriors at defending those shots, which tilts it back to the Warriors favor.  The biggest struggle for the Cavs will be if their Guards can match up.  The Warriors guards have had the best Ast-Turonver Ratio so far these playoffs, and the Cavs guards are posting a pretty meh 107 Drtg for their own. 

NBA PLayoffs: Conference Finals

Already to the Conference Finals after what ended up being a bit of a set of blowouts.  In the Wets, the Jazz and Rockets both cruised through their series against the upstart Jazz and Pelicans.  The Celtics downed their own upstart in the Sixers, while the Cavs demolished the Raptors, who played terribly in transition.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

Rockets win Series 66% of the time in 6 games

Can the Rockets get over their hump?  Can they stop us from having a third straight Cavs-Warriors finals?  The question in this series is likely to be who can get that extra stop on defense.  So far, The Warriors have been a bit better in defensive efficiency, posting the only sub 100 defensive rating in these playoffs.  The Warriors offense has been a step off in efficiency, but thats with a banged up Steph Curry.  If he can get back to his usual self (he's about 5% fewer 3s, and about 4 points off his PER form last year) it will be very hard for the Rockets.  But, he has been banged up.  And James Harden so far has been a killer, with a 55% TS rate, and just a 10% turnover rate.  

 

Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavs win Series 54% of the time in 7 games

 I didn't think the Cavs had a chance to advance this year.  But now, they've gotten rested and have a good chance to get to another Finals.  The biggest change in this last series besides the Raptors inability to convert in transition was the rest of the starters play.  Noone shot under 55% TS, and they all had a net rating of over 14.  That took the full pull off Lebron, and the team looked ready to make a run.  The Celtics though will give them a run.  They stymied the Sixers young core, and did it by shooting at 56.3% TS, and by running at a slightly higher pace.  Jaylen Brown has been good in these playoffs to help lead the team, kepeing his turnover rate to just 8% while shooitng at 57.8%.

What happened to Toronto?

After what was a grueling 7 game series for the Cavs to open against the Pacers, Lebron James said he was too tired to even think about the Raptors.  The Cavs had been harried and outside of Lebron carrying the team for 7 games had looked like a team contending for the first overall pick rather than a championship.

So, when the series started against the Raptors, I was confident this was Toronto's year. But after four games, two of them basically non competitive from the Raptors, Lebron and company are heading back to the Eastern Conference finals and now get some much needed rest.  The question is, what happened to the Raptors?  In games 1 and 3 they were actually more efficient shooters than the Cavs, but couldn't win those tight games. 

The biggest issue was overall defensive efficiency.  During the regular season, the Raptors posted a top five DRtg, 103.4.  Against the Cavs though, they got torched to the tune of a 121.5 rating.  That's the worst for any series so far in these playoffs.  While the Raptors were efficient shooters, the Cavs hit just about everything they wanted outside of game one, posting above 60% true shooting rates and high 50s.

It didn't help either that the Raptors pair of All Star caliber guards and Fred Vanfleet were brutalized a bit by the Cavs back court.  Demar and Lowry combined to shoot just 49% this series, with them providing a -24 +/-.  You cant win series when your stars are being out dueled by JR Smith and George Hill. The fact that the Raptors front court also provided -15 as well ended any chance they had to win the series.  

The biggest factor though was in how effective team's were in transition.  The Raptors had 59 attempts when the shot clock was between 18-22 seconds, the fast break area.  They made 34 of those field goals, including 8 threes.  The Cavs however had just 38 attempts, but made 27 of them and hit 7 threes.  If the Raptors had been just a  little more efficient there, this series is a completely different story for them.The Raptors weren't the fastest team in the elague in termsof pace, but the games slowed down in this series, hitting about 90 possessions or so.  That favored the Cavs and Lebron who were coming off a long series.  The Raptors needed to push and hit shots in transition to make the Cavs work, and wear them down even more. 

Overall this is likely the end for this iteration of the Raptors.  They have a lot of holes, especially in the front court where they will need to find some way of getting more production to help Rozen and Lowry.  Its too bad that this was their best chance yet to escape the Cavs, and the couldn't.

NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Matchups

I'll go ahead and edit this post later, but with the Pelicans and Warriors kicking off tomorrow, I wanted to get them done.  And since every other series looks like it could go a little bit further, theres no reason not to start looking at these two teams.

-EDIT: Updated with all of the remaining series, including the fact that the Rockets won yesterday.  Sorry I didnt get this up then, but I misread the schedule and thought they were playing the late night game.

Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans:

Pelicans win Series 53.2% of the time in 7 games 

 

The program did not do a great job with these teas in the first round.  The Warriors looked much more energized then they had the waning weeks of the season, and the Spurs had no 2nd half answers without Leonard in the line up.  The Pelicans flat out dominated their series, posting the best TS rate of anyone in the first round, coming in at 61%.  Interestingly, the Warriors were the much better team on the boards, snagging 80% of their defensive rebounds, which could become a key in this series.  We should also see Steph back.  However, the program can't forget that the Warriors have been hobbled, and noone else should either.  The Pelicans have run a lot of tempo in these playoffs, Neither team has been very good at stopping opposing players in the paint, ranking 25th and 26th.  The Pelicans though all season have reliably gone to Anthony Davis there to score a lot of points.   It wouldn't surpise me if this series ended up going 7 games, but I'm a little more sure on the Warriors with Steph than the Pelicans.

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets:

Rockets win Series 71.2% of the time in 5 games 

This was probably going to be my highlight matchup of these playoffs but with Ricky Rubio getting his hamstring pulled in the finale against the Thunder, this series might end up much more shallow.  The Jazz have been one of the best defensive teams all season, posting the second best defensive rating this season at 101.6.  The Rockets had been the leagues second most efficient offense, 112.1 rating to go with a 59% TS rate. This model does include the fact that the Rockets already won game 1, but the Jazz's defense has been so good and their offense fairly efficient so the program still sees some hope for them.

Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers:

Raptors win Series 82.5% of the time in 5 games 

The Cavs were able to finally get past the Pacers in a taught 7 game series, in which if just a few shots fell against them the columns would already be flowing about Lebron James' next stop would be.  James though was super man in this series, with a 65.5% TS rate, 15% rebound rate, and a league leading 26.8 PIE for players that are starters in the playoffs.  The rest of the starters have been basically non-existent, especially Kevin Love and JR Smith.  Against a Raptors squad that has the second best offensive efficiency so far in the playoffs and a middle ground defensive efficiency, this wont cut it.  But Lebron is still amazing, so he might be able to pull it off.  He's been ridden hard already though, and with Fred Van Fleet over his injury, the Raptors second unit is going to apply a lot of pressure.

Boston Celtics vs New Philadelphia 76ers:

76ers win Series 81.4% of the time in 5 games 

The Sixers are looking like the class of the East currently, dispatching the Heat in impressive fashion (3 of 4 wins by double digit points) and with the best Net Rating of teams in the east through the opening round.  They last played a week ago, so there could be some rust.  But the Celtics starters have now played the most minutes of any starting unit besides the now defeated Pacers and Jazz (who have an extra game done now).  Al Horford so far has carried the load for the Celtics, posting a 15.4 PIE and a 66.9% TS rate, but his defensive efficiency has been pretty bad, at 107.3).  He'll have his hands full with the Sixers helping to guard Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.  JJ Reddick has also been hot so far, hitting 56% of his threes so far.  The Sixers play with a lot of pace as well, so this series could be short if the Celtics have to keep their starters in.

NBA Playoffs 1st Round so far

Everyone has completed the first leg of the playoffs, and now teams travel to their next set of games at the lower seeds home.  The Jazz, Heat and Pacers were all successful in breaking home court advantage early, while the Blazers completely gave it away to the Pelicans.

Toronto vs Washington: The Raptors have cruised through their first two games, posting a 119.4 Ortg and posting the best TS% rate so far in the playoffs.  The Wizards outside of John Wall have generated almost no free throws, and Bradley Beal so far has gone 11-28 in the series, with just 3 attempts.

Boston vs Milwaukee:  The Bucks have kept games close, posting good true shooting numbers.  But last game they hit just 41$ of their free throws.  Thats been the difference so far, along with with Celtics cleaning up on the offensive glass (22.7% to the Bucks 16%)

Philadelphia vs Miami: We had a vintage Dwayne Wade game in game 2, going 1/17 and posting a 71.7% TS.  James Johnson also chipped in going 7/7 with a pair of threes and 5 assists.  The Sixers really need Embiid back soon if the Heat can continue to play solid defense on Ben Simmons and Marco Belinelli.

Cleveland vs Indiana: The Pacers have been the better looking team so far against the Cavs, forcing them into turnovers and a negative net rating.  If Victor Oladipo doesn't go 2-8 in game 2 from the three point line, the Cavs could have found themselves down in an 0-2 hole.  Lebron James has been impressive throughout though, dragging the Cavs with a 46 point performance last night.

Houston vs Minnesota: The Rockets are looking a little shaky in their first round match up, giving a bit of pause as to whether their brand of basketball does translate to the post season.  However Chris Paul was able to efficiently pick up where James Harden fell off this year, and the Rockets were able to force the Wolves into going just 5-18 from beyond 3.

Golden State vs San Antonio: Despite the program's glowing reviews for the SPurs in this seres, they've been unable to finish either game away from home.The Warriors D has held the SPurs to 50.8 and 51.4% TS performances, while Klay Thompson has been a killer in the series so far. 

Portland vs New Orleans: The Pelicans have smothered the Blazers, allowing a TS rate of just 49.6.  The Pelicans arent fouling either, allowing under 10% of field goals to generate a free throw.  As the series moves back to New Orleans, this looks like it might be a sweep.

Oklahoma City vs Utah: The Jazz had been the best second half team this season, but allowed the Thunder to get to a 115 Ortg, something that hadn't allowed in months.  They got back to basics though in game 2, and Ricky Rubio lead the way with Derrick Favors on offense, as Rubio had 9 assist to just 1 turnover and went 5/8 from beyond the arc.  The Jazz should have a decent chance moving forward.

NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference Predictions

The Eastern Conference is an intriguing set of playoffs this year.  Are the Cavs good enough for one more run?  Can the Celtics play with so many injuries?  Are the Raptors for real?

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

Celtics win 58% of the time in 6 games

 

The Celtics were in the drivers seat early this season, but a stumble before the All Star break and a wave of injuries put them in 2nd place in the East.  They've been able to hold on so far, but they went 2-4 in their last 6 games and will be without Kyrie Irving for the remainder of the playoffs.  The Bucks a re a good offensive team, but the Celtics should be able to get past with the Bucks inability to sctop other teams from scoring.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers

Cleveland Wins Series 51% of the time in 7 games

 

We get to see here if the Cavs are good enough to flip the switch in playoff time this year.  They've been great since the middle of March, when they've gone 11-3.  

 Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers

76ers win 65% of the time in 6 games

 

This series is likely over a little quicker than this, with just how good the Sixers have been.  They've won 16 straight, despite missing Joel Embiid for a good chunk of time.  They've had the best defensive rating in the league since the 15th, and the third best TS%.  The Heat in the same stretch did rank 4th in Drtg, but just 18th in TS%.

Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards

Toronto Wins 90% of the time in 4 games

The Raptors are the best challenge to the Cavs since Lebron's return to Cleveland.  They're a team that is solid defensively, but is downright electric on offense.  The Wizards have been atrocious the last several weeks, and should pose little threat.

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Predictions

Its NBA Playoffs time.  We had a wild finish in the West, that saw a lot of teams jockey for position all over the place.  Here's how the first round will break down, courtesy of the program's predictions and a few thoughts I have on each series.

Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs:

Spurs win Series 58.8% of the time in 7 games

 

This percentage here is really a testament to how much the Warriors have really struggled in the second half of the season with injuries and the like.  Since the start of March, they've ranked 11th in TS, 22nd in Turnover Percentage, and were dead even in Ortg and Drtg.  They'll be without Steph in this series, which could cause problems as the Spurs have been good down the stretch.   I think the program is overstating a little how close this series will be, but the Warriors are especially banged up, so any further injury could derail them quickly.

Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Rockets win 94% of the time in 4 games

 

The T-Wolves won on the last day of the season to get the honor of facing the red hot Rockets.   This series will likely be over quickly.

 New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers

Portland wins Series 51.8% of the time in 7 games

 

 The Pelicans have one of the leagues best players, but the Blazers have a very good backcourt duo in Lillard and Mccolum.  The Pelicans were better down the stretch, but they face a team in the Blazers that allowed just a .503 eFG%, third best in the league.  If the Blazers offense shows up they can take this series.

OKC Thunder vs Utah Jazz

Jazz win Series 89% in 5 games

The program has loved the Jazz in the second half of the season, and its been pretty unfavorable to the Thunder.  Over the course of the season the Thunder were one of the better defensive teams, but that fell off after the injury to ANdre ROberson.  The Jazz since March have ranked 4th in TS% at 57.7%, and 1st overall in DRtg at just 95.7.

NBA Predictions for games that matter to the Playoffs

The NBA playoffs have come down to the wire this year, as both conferences have some tight matchups for determining the seeding near the bottom.  The West features a play in game between the T-Wolves and Nuggets, While in the East the Wizards can jump all the way to 6 if the cards fall just right.

Away	Home	Prediction	Home Chance to Win
Denver Nuggets	Minnesota Timberwolves	Denver by 1	48.70%
Utah Jazz	Portland Trail Blazers	Utah by 4	38.70%
Memphis Grizzlies	Oklahoma City Thunder	OKC by 14	84.90%
San Antonio Spurs	New Orleans Pelicans	NOP by 1	52.20%
Milwaukee Bucks	Philadelphia 76ers	Phi by 9	74.20%
Washington Wizards	Orlando Magic	Wash by 4	37.90%
Toronto Raptors	Miami Heat	Tor by 4	37.80%

If the Nuggets win, they're locked into the 8 seed, making the playoffs for the first time since 2013.  They've got to travel to Minnesota, and both teams are adept at scoring.  This should be a great watch tonight.  The Jazz need to beat the Blazers to get the 3 seed.  Portland has dropped 4 straight, and had just a 36.7% eFG against Denver on Monday night.  They might be a little ore rested though as the Jazz had to play Golden State last night.  The Spurs and Pelicans could swap spots if New Orleans doesn't win their matchup.  The Pelicans though hold the advantage in shooting, ranking 4th in eFG vs 25th for the Spurs, and that efficiency difference will make an impact tonight. 

In the East, the Sixers hold theirs and the Cavs fate in their hands.  Win against the Bucks, and lock u the 3 seed.  Otherwise t heads to Cleveland.  The Bucks need to lay hard though to stay ahead of Miami, who needs a win against Toronto to pull into the 6th spot.  While the program doesn't like Miami's chances, Toronto has nothing to play for since they're locked into number 1, and they can't have a better record than the Rockets for a Finals match up.If both the Bucks and Heat falter, Washington suddenly is the 6th seed, assuming they get the win the program predicts for them.

A few NBA playoff Scenarios in the West

The NBA's Western Confernce has several tight races for seeding from 3rd ll the way down to the last team in.  Lets take a little look at a few of them.

For 3 Seed:
The team's in the driver's seat right now for the 3rd seed are the Jazz and the Blazers.  IF either one wins both remaining games, they can lock up the the 3 right now.  The Blazer currently hold the spot, but the program likes the odds for the Jazz to be the Warriors and then the Blazers a bit better, giving them a 44% chance to the Blazers 19% chance to win it outright.  Noone else can catch up, thanks to tiebreaks falling all in favor of the Jazz and Blazers, and one of them guaranteed to win one more game.

For the 4 Seed:
Things get a bit trickier here, but the Jazz and Blazers both hold here pretty strongly.  The Spurs however can snag it, if they manage to win both games, the Blazers lose both.  They've got about an 11% chance to have all of that happen.  The Pelicans are alive at a 7% chance, needing the same scenario as the Spurs.  The Thunder can get it done if the Blazers win their games, the Jazz lose theirs, and the Spurs and Pelicans both lose at least once.  t comes out to about a 3% chance.

For the 5 Seed:
The Pelicans just need to win one game against the Spurs or the Clippers to lock up their 5 seed spot.  They've got a 51% chance to beat the Spurs, and a 52% chance to beat the Clippers so they should have it.  If they falter in both games, the Spurs need to beat them for that to happen.  So, give them a 24% chance to nab that spot.  The Thunder have no shot at this spot because they lose tie breaks to both the Pelicans and Spurs.

For 6,7,8:
This mess at the bottom is very close.  The Spurs are in control here, holding a tiebreak over everyone in this 6-9 spot.  Win 1 game and they are in at 6.  If they lose both games (10% chance) , they can drop to the 8th spot with a pair of wins by a couple of teams.  The Thunder are in the most danger, because they lose tiebreaks to both the T Wolves and Nuggets.  If they fall to the Heat tonight, and win against the Griz to end the season, the Nuggets or Wolves hop them by winning out.  The Nuggets need a lot of help to make it.  They have to win both games (program does give them a 27% chance to do so), or hope the Grizzlies and Heat can both beat the Thunder and get one win  (8% chance). 

NFL Championship Game Wrap Up

NE vs JAX: The Jaguars had a real chance at this mega upset.  In the first half they domainated play, forcing 3 punts from the Pats and allowing just 30% of the potential yards on their frist 4 drives.  Then came an egregious Delay of Game penalty on Blake Bortles and a follow up sack that pushed the Jags out of field goal range.  The Pats then picked up 47 yards on penalties and brought the game to 14-10 instead of 17-3 in all likelihood.  The second half continued to see the Pats stymie the Jags rushing attack (Fournette averaged under 3 yards a carry), and they had just two drives that used more than two and a half minutes on the clock despite holding the lead.  I'm not a huge time of possession fan, but with a lead you have to average at least 3 minutes per drive, to limit the chances your opponent can come back and use another drive.  Jacksonville had the field position advantage basically all day, having no drives start withing their 20 in the first half, but in a pair of critical drives they started at their 16 and 10, and gained exactly 21 yards.  That second one was especially appalling because it allowed the Pats to start at the Jags 30, all but conceding a tying field goal and ended up being a game winning TD.

PHI vs MIN: This game swung so heavily on the Pick 6 in the first quarter, its amazing.  The Vikings defense looked confused and gassed all day, giving up short throws that ate them up.  Nick Foles missed just 3 short throws all game, and was never really harassed in the pocket.  Keenum, despite being sacked just once, was pressured all game long.  The Vikings had only four of their 9 drives gain at least 50% of the potential yards, and 3 of them ended up in turnovers (fumble, downs, interception).

NFL Conference Championships

The conference championships are all set, and we have a pair of very intriguing matchups.  The Pats will take on a Jags defense that has been extremely stout all season, but got eaten up by Big Ben last week.  The Pats have had a an up and down time on offense, and the Jags rush game could pose dangerous to their 30th ranked DVOA rush defense.  The books don't give the Jags much chance, but I could easily see this being a 10-3 sort of game.  Or Neither defense shows up and is another shoot out. 

The Eagles got past the Falcons, and the Vikings had one of the greatest ends to a game last week.  I didnt expect the Vikings to need to go on the road this playoffs, but if they can play like they did to start the game last week they should be able to advance. 

Home Team	Home Win Chance	Away Team	Away Win Chance	Home Spread
New England Patriots	76.57	Jacksonville Jaguars	23.43	8.7
Philadelphia Eagles	46.73	Minnesota Vikings	53.27	-1.2

NFL Divisional Round Wrap Up

PHI vs ATL: This was not a pretty game to watch.  The Falcons gained just 281 yards of total offense, and gained 46% of their potential yards.  This though resulted in only 1 TD, on a very short field.  The Eagles marched on long drives 4 times and came away with points, gaining 54% of their total yards.  The Falcons woes came running the ball, where outside of a nice scamper by Tevin Coleman for 23 yards, they gained just 3.3 yards per carry.  That set up a lot of third and longs, where the Falcons went just 4-13 on.  They also hit just 2 of their 7 deep throws for 43 yards, not a recipe for success.The Eagles didn't run the ball efficiently either, but they kept themselves on pace by not committing penalties, with just 4-24 yards. 

NE vs TEN: This one was not a game that was really expected to be close.  The Titans drove early in the game and looked solid, and then the wheels came off.  Mariota was sacked 8 times for 52 yards of loss, resulting in a net passing effort of 202 yards on 45 drop backs.  The Pats defense also shut down Derrick Henry completely, gaining just over 2 yards a carry.  Tom Brady looked good, and the Pats rolled.

Pit vs Jax: The upset of the day.  The Jags came into Pittsburgh and played the Steelers toe to toe.  Jacksonville out gained the Steelers on a per play basis, going for 6.2 yards per play vs the Steelers 6.1.  As much as I've heard this game wasn't as close as the score, it was very close.  If not for two Pittsburgh turnovers, one that got returned for a TD, this is a very different game.  The Jags to their credit were able to out run the Steelers pretty handily, with Fournette pounding the middle of the field and Bortles hitting 9 different receivers on the day.  The Jags kept Bell form being able to run effectively, holding him to just over 4 yards a carry, but without a big 21 yard run he was well under 3 for the day.

MIN vs NO:  The best game of the day.  The Vikings dominated the first half, forcing Drew Brees into completing under 50% of his passes and gaining just 26% of their potential yards.  The second half was a complete flip.  The Saints moved the ball at ease, gaining 5.8 yards per play and gaining 70% of their potential yards.  Two short fields helped there, but the Vikings offense sputtered, gaining just over 4 yards a play until the final drive.  That drive, which is capped off with one of the greatest plays we will probably see in these playoffs:

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

After a wild weekend in the wildcard where the Chiefs and Rams fumbled and bumbled their way to home losses, we get a few interesting matchups. The Pats look strong at home against the Titans, while the Steelers might struggle a little bit against the Jags(especially with news today Antonio Brown was sent home with an illness).  The NFC features a pair of very tight matchups.  The Vkings have a great combination of offense and defense, but the Saints are a big play machine that could apply early pressure to them.  The Falcons are traveling to Philly, where noone gives the Eagles a chance this week.  They still boast one of the upper tier defenses in the league, and Nick Foles is a solid QB, who now has had an extra week to prepare and work with the offense as the starter.  I still think the Falcons will win, but the program likes the Eagles to hold on at home.

Home Team	Home Win Chance	Away Team	Away Win Chance	Home Margin
New England Patriots	87.82	Tennessee Titans	12.18	14.1
Pittsburgh Steelers	63.34	Jacksonville Jaguars	36.66	4.2
Minnesota Vikings	63.86	New Orleans Saints	36.14	4.3
Philadelphia Eagles	57.58	Atlanta Falcons	42.42	2.4

NFL Wild Card Weekend Wrap up

LA vs ATL: This was a game that the Rams absolutely lost with tunrovers.  The Falcons had 9 long drives in this game, and picked up 37% of their potential yards.  The Rams only had 6, and they picked up 67% of their total potential yards.  But giving away two posessions in special teams errors and gifting the Falcons 10 points was the difference.  The other advantage the Falcons had was an ability to stop TOdd Gurley.  Gurley had 2 big plays, a run of 33 and 26.  But on his remaing 12 touches he ran for less than 4 yards per carry, and had three of those carries go for 0 or negative yardage.  In the passing game, Gurley also was stymied with 10 targets to just 4 catches and 4 yards.

JAX vs BUF:  A defensive slug fest to say the least.Both teams crossed the 50 yard line just twice after starting on their side of the field, and both teams opted for short passes to attack the defenses.  Jacksonville attempted one long pass on the day ( a 20 yard catch by Dede Westbrook) and the Bills had just 4 deep shots, none being completed.  The Bills special teams did their job, allowing just 2 punt returns on the day ( 8 punts) for 2 yards, while the Jags allowed 5 for 21 yards.

NO vs CAR: The story of this game ended up being the Panthers inability to finish drives.  On five of their first 6 drives, the Panthers drove into the maroon zone, and walked out with just 12 points.   The Saints on the other hand, on their first 6 drives found the Maroon Zone 3 times, but came away with 17 points, and had a long TD pass where Ted Ginn ran past everyone.  Neither team was really able t run the ball, with Jonathon Stewart accumulating almost everything on one 29 yard run.  But they both found success going deep, combining to accumulate 38% of their total yards on the day with deep passes (the Panthers picking up 27% and the Saints a whopping 50%!!)

KC vs TEN: Oh boy.  This is the moment when the schadenfreude kicks in.  I don't know if Chiefs fans can recover from this one.  With 4:49 left in the 3rd Quarter, the Chiefs had a 98.9% chance to win.  The lead by 11, and had one of the best rookie running backs in the league.  That was when Adoree Jackson muffed a punt and gave KC the ball at the Titans 28 yard line.  The Chiefs gained no yards on that drive, and Butker missed the field goal.  Hunt got 4 carries total in the second half, despite the Titans using up over 8 minutes on their first drive, KC used up fewer than 5 on their next two drives and enabled the Titans to score twice more to take the lead.  The Chiefs gained just 22% of their potential yards in the second half, while giving up 94% of the Titans potential yards on defense.  Just a complete collapse and failure to use any clock with a big lead.

NBA Finals: Notes after two games

The first two games of the NBA Finals have shown us just how dominating the Golden State Warriors can be.  Kevin Durant has run roughshod over the Cavs, posting True Shooting rates of 64% and 59% in the first two contests, while also having a 97 and 93 Drtg.  It hasn't helped that the Cavs are basically playing no defense, with their team ratings of 113 and 124.  If they can't somehow slow down Durant, the Cavs are looking to get swept away at home by this ultra high powered Warriros team.  Other Notes:

• Things could be even worse for the Cavs as we saw in Game 2 when the Warriors are getting to the line.  During the regular season, both teams posted a roughly 20.5% FT/FGA rate.  The Cavs have been slightly ahead of their rate through two games, going to the line on 29% and 19% so far.  The Warriors reached the cahrity stripe a paltry 15% of their attempts in Game 1, but posted a 27% rate in Game 2.  The biggest loser in this is Kyrie Irving.  Regular season he got free throws on 23% of his attempts.  Games 1 and 2: 4.5 and 8.7.  That will not cut it in today's NBA
• The Cavs bench has been pretty ineffective so far.  Of the bench players getting at least 10 minutes per game, only Richard Jefferson has a True shooting rate of over 50%.  Jefferson and Deron WIlliams are also near team "leaders" for turnover rate despite averaging 14 and 16 minutes respectively.  
• JR Smith is playing abysmal basketball so far.  33% turnover rate, 25% True SHooting, and 5 fouls in about 21 minutes a game.  His defense has been bad too, as his man has shot 91% throught two games.
• If the Cavs can contain KD, its encouraging that Klay Thompson broke out of his shooting woes in Game 2.  Going 8-12, including 4 of 7 from distance gave him a team leading 83.3% TS rate.  Klay's defense has been solid, but its his shooting that will break the Cavs if he can keep it going.
• The Cavs are a much better team at home than on the road, where they were just 7 games above .500. The Warriors though are roughly the same team on the road,so expect an epic game. 

NBA Finals Predictions

The Finals are here.  Its the matchup that prognosticators have called for this entire season.  The question will be which set of All Stars will triumph?  The Warriors have swept everyone they've played so far, giving them several extra days of rest inbetween.  The Cavs have had just a single setback, coming against a red hot shooting Celtics team that wasn't able to sustain themselves without Iisaih Thomas for more than a short time.  Lets look at a few notes from the playoffs that might make a difference in this series.

• Despite being know as an outside shooting team, the Warriors are actually taking far more shots inside the restricted zone than the Cavs.  Through both teams having played 12 playoff games, the totals stood at 282 attempts by the Cavs, 317 by the Warriors.  They both are proficient at it, hitting 65% of those shots.  
• The Cavs live and die by Lebron, but Kevin Love has been exceptionally important this playoffs.  He leads the team in ORtg, and is tied with Lebron in net rating.
• The Warriors have spread out the bench playing time a bit more than the Cavs, with only six players that have averaged more than 15 inutes per game in the playoffs.  The Cavs have 8, and thats with Lebron putting in over 40 per game.  
• Of those players, the only Cav not to have a 60% True shooting rate is Kyrie Irving.  The Warriors have a pair of players with True Shooting under 50%, Klay Thompson and Andre Igudola. 

Golden State Warriors Series Wins: 0.90455
Cleveland Cavaliers Series Wins: 0.09545
Average Games Needed: 5

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Golden State Warriors	56.4	13.2	20.5	22.8	48.5	13.5	20.1	74.9	115.8	104	99.8
Cleveland Cavaliers	54.8	12.5	20.5	22	51.6	11.5	17.4	75.7	113.9	110.3	96.2

The program does not look kindly on this series.  The Cavs defense has been the issue the whole season, and its been improved in the playoffs to a 105 mark.  And their offense has been even better, posting a 119 mark.  However the Warriors already solid D has been even better, all the way down to 99 points per 100 posessions, a mark that would have been the best in the league in the regular season. If Klay Thompson heats up, this prediction is probably closer to true than anyone in Cleveland would care to admit.  However, if Lebron and Love can continue to play this well and play defense to keep Klay down, they;ve got a shot.

NBA Eastern Conference Finals

The Celtics, as the least feared 1 seed in modern memory, have advanced to the finals to challenge the Cavs.  It was a memorable series against the Wizards, going down to a game 7.  The Cavs on the other hand coasted through their series with the Raptors.  This series should be much more of a challenge and should give us a good series before the finals everyone has been expecting.

Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Boston Celtics Series Wins: 0.47854
Cleveland Cavaliers Series Wins: 0.52146
Average Games Needed: 6

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Boston Celtics	52.5	12.3	22.1	21.2	50.4	12.6	22.2	75.2	111.1	108.7	96.7
Cleveland Cavaliers	54.8	12.5	20.5	22	51.6	11.5	17.4	75.7	113.9	110.3	96.2