College football Top 25 Projection

This summer has been busy.  I have managed however to find some time to tweak the formulas I've used to predict team strength and come up with some composite rankings.  The changes centered a lot on removing some emphasis on turnover luck (it really has a very low significance for explaining year to year variability), and redid my returning experience formula.  It should help give a much better view of a team over a season, since the formula had a new reduced standard error equal to about half of what it had been.

In season I'll be making a few tweaks to what happens for a team afflicted with injuries, which of course will as the old military adage goes, ruin this ranking at first contact.

Team	Ranking
Alabama	1
Ohio State	2
Southern California	3
UCLA	4
Oregon	5
Oklahoma	6
Baylor	7
Stanford	8
Florida State	9
Notre Dame	10
Georgia	11
Texas A&M	12
Texas Christian	13
Mississippi	14
Arizona State	15
Clemson	16
Oklahoma State	17
Michigan	18
Texas	19
Missouri	20
Texas Tech	21
Michigan State	22
Florida	23
Arizona	24
Miami(FL)	25

It loves the Pac-12, which I think will continue to shine.  I do doubt though we see USC, UCLA and Oregon in the top 5 or so at the end of the year.  I'm also not nearly as high on Florida, but they could be a darkhorse with that defensive secondary.

The program also generates odds for a team to win a range of games, which I'll sort by below, going from the best chances to win at least 11 games in the regular season.

Team	Ranking
Ohio State	1
Florida State	2
UCLA	3
Alabama	4
Southern California	5
Oklahoma	6
Notre Dame	7
Baylor	8
Marshall	9
Nebraska	10
Boise State	11
Penn State	12
Georgia	13
Cincinnati	14
Stanford	15
Oregon	16
Massachusetts	17
Texas Christian	18
Wisconsin	19
Michigan	20
Northern Illinois	21
Michigan State	22
Clemson	23
Texas A&M	24
Oklahoma State	25