The Mathlete's Dilemma: Best Bowl matchups

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Best Bowl matchups

The folks over at the SBNation main site released their big college football preview. One of the most interesting pages that they do annually is their bowl projections. I went ahead and categorized the matchups they gave by how close the projections put the bowl game being, as well as what the spread should be.

Team 1	Opponent	Team 1Win Chance	Average Spread	Departure from Even
Michigan State	UCLA	47.40%	-1	2.60%
Western Michigan	Appalachian State	52.90%	1	2.90%
Georgia Tech	Texas	53.00%	1	3.00%
Wisconsin	Arizona State	45.40%	-2	4.60%
Michigan	Georgia	44.60%	-2	5.40%
Oklahoma	Southern California	56.00%	2	6.00%
Central Florida	Bowling Green State	56.00%	2	6.00%
Kansas State	California	56.90%	3	6.90%
Minnesota	Arkansas	41.50%	-3	8.50%
Nebraska	Texas A&M	40.80%	-3	9.20%
Utah State	Utah	40.10%	-4	9.90%
West Virginia	Missouri	39.30%	-4	10.70%
Oklahoma State	Louisiana State	38.50%	-4	11.50%
Louisville	Tennessee	38.30%	-4	11.70%
Alabama	Oregon	62.70%	4	12.70%
Texas-El Paso	New Mexico	35.80%	-5	14.20%
Boise State	Notre Dame	33.90%	-6	16.10%
Virginia Tech	Penn State	66.40%	6	16.40%
Toledo	Georgia Southern	67.00%	6	17.00%
Duke	Mississippi State	31.90%	-7	18.10%
Iowa	Arizona State	31.40%	-7	18.60%
East Carolina	Louisiana-Lafayette	69.70%	7	19.70%
Florida State	Auburn	70.40%	7	20.40%
Baylor	Mississippi	72.20%	8	22.20%
Arkansas State	San Jose State	72.90%	8	22.90%
Houston	South Carolina	25.20%	-9	24.80%
Temple	Rice	75.50%	10	25.50%
North Carolina State	Stanford	23.20%	-10	26.80%
Northern Illinois	Colorado State	77.20%	11	27.20%
Cincinnati	Western Kentucky	78.90%	11	28.90%
San Diego State	Texas State	79.40%	12	29.40%
Ohio State	Texas Christian	79.50%	11	29.50%
Pittsburgh	Memphis	81.00%	12	31.00%
Maryland	Air Force	83.60%	14	33.60%
Miami(FL)	Marshall	85.80%	15	35.80%
Middle Tennessee State	Akron	86.10%	15	36.10%
Old Dominion	Brigham Young	10.90%	-17	39.10%
North Carolina	Navy	93.20%	21	43.20%