Final Four Odds and Matchup Charts

A wild weekend sets up a very intriguing set of games for the Final Four.  Virginia blew a lead as their offense settled into a funk against the tremendous zone of Syracuse, while Villanova finished strong in both halves to be able to move past KU (who actually shot better than the Wildcats from the field). 

I've currently got UNC with a 36% chance to win the Tournament now, with Nova at 33% and Oklahoma at 23%.  The pesky Orange have a 7% chance of winning it if they can get past UNC (27% chance)

Currently only UNC provides a negative EV according to Vegas, with Villanova being pretty harshly underrated with the best EV mark currently.  They've also certainly got the tougher draw, in needing to stop the one man wrecking crew known as Buddy Hield.

Elite 8 Charts

A pretty boring Sweet 16.  Only the lower ranking games had any real excitment, with all the others ending as double digit blowouts.  We've still got three 1 seeds left, so hopefully we get some fireworks in before the Final Four.

 

The Jayhawks continue to be the most consistent team in the tournament, looking good throughout their game against Maryland.  The game started close, but KU was able to strangle the Terrapins offensive game at the start of the second half and pull away.  Villanova though poses a very real challenge, especially after how thoroughly they were able to beat a surprising Miami squad.  A game that saw the 'cats shoot 76.6% TS% will have them looking for the upset here.  In a toss up, Im sticking with the most consistent team.

 

The Tar Heels should have little issue dispatching the pesky Irish.  Notre Dame's downfall is a defense thats fairly porous, ranking only 128th in Defg% and failing to force turnovers, at just a 14% clip.

 The Cavaliers showed little trouble in frustrating an Iowa State offense that routinely put up big points.  They forced 12 turnovers, or 17% of Iowa State's possessions.  Syracuse has been a sticky team, after being left out in most prognostications of who would make the tourney.  If Virginia can be as efficient as they were tonight, this should not be close.

 

The second most intriguing matchup, the Ducks will meet the Sooners for the first time in the Tourney since 1939.  The Ducks do well not letting teams get to the line, posting a stingy FT/FGA rate.  But they are not always great on closing out on the perimeter, and Buddy Hield will make them pay.  The Sooners boast the second best 3 point percentage in the nation.

Sweet 16 Charts

After a pretty exciting first few days, the tournament has settled back into a bit more predictability, with the only real surprise matchup of Syracuse and Gonzaga as teams into the double digits surviving (and its not exactly like these are mid major nobodies).  This means we get a lot of great matchups throughout the rest of the tournament, and everyone will be tested before advancing. 

 

I had this matchup at start the tournament,  and I think it will be a great game.  Both teams operate at a good pace, and they match up well statistically.  I've still got Duke with a 58% chance to win, but this one should be good.

 

The two surprise teams remaining, the Zags and Orangemen are another pair of evenly matched squads.  The Zags though have proven to be the better team in the tournament so far, completely dominating a very good Utah squad.

 

A match up of old blue bloods, the Tar Heels have been great the past month, and after a slow start against Florida Gulf Coast they pasted Providence with a 114.9 ORTG.  I still have them into the Finals, with Indiana coming off a pair of tough games.

 

A sigh of relief swept through Cyclone nation as they avoided getting sent home early again, easily beating the would be Cinderella UALR.  Virginia also had a big sigh of relief, as they saw Michigan State go out int he first round, leaving them the undisputed top seed in the region.  These two teams play different styles, with Virginia ranking 351st in adjusted temp, and Iowa State at 56th.   I think Virginia advances, largely due to their consistent shooting.

 

This is the most lopsided game remaining by the programs standards, with KU boasting a 62% chance to advance against the Terrapins.  KU though actually boasts a worse effective field goal percentage, but they get to the line far more often, which should help them march on.

 

Miami is a bit of a surprise to still be here, but they jumped all over Wichita State and then held on to advance.   This game should see some good offensive work, with both teams ranking in the top 15 for adjusted ORTG, and the Canes have faced a lot of tough competition with a Pythagorean SOS ranking third.  Nova though is on another level, especially defensively.

 

In what looks to be the most evenly contested game, the Irish will try to get past the Badgers who are flying high after their last second victory over a very good Xavier team.  The Badgers again get to the line better than their opponent, and allow fewer trips to the chairty stripe than the Irish.  Badgers advance in a very, very tight game. 

 

 The Aggies have no real weaknesses in their game, but they will have to take down Buddy Hield if they wish to continue their run.  Overall the Aggies match up well, with their only real weakness being an inexplicable sixty some percent free throw percent team.  The Sooners have more holes, but Hield posts a 66.6% true shooting rate, which should be enough again to get to the Elite 8

NCAA Mens Odds to the Final 4

 For each of the regions, I created a quick chart showing the teams odds of reaching the final four.  I'll add some charts for the Sweet 16 matchups that detail the actual matchup a little better, but I currently have KU, UNC, MSU and OU (sure, Duke is slightly favored, but I'm taking Buddy Hield to advance)