NCAA Elite 8 2019 Predictions

Kentucky Advances 61.5% against Auburn

Kentucky Average Margin of Victory: 2.8

Duke Advances 65% againstMichigan State

Texas Tech Average Margin of Victory: 3.1

Texas Tech Advances 56.6% against Gonaga

Texas Tech Average Margin of Victory: 1.2

Virginia Advances 70.4% against Purdue

Virginia Average Margin of Victory: 5.1

Elite 8 Charts- Part 1

Fr the first par of our Elite 8 games we have a pair of great matchups.  The nation's best team consistently through the regular season and into the tournament has been Gonzaga.  They're taking on this year's Cinderella Xavier, a team that has slain a very good Florida State squad and then capitalized on some Arizona mistakes to take them out.  This could be a tough matchup because Xavier draws ore fouls and is a bit better on the offensive glass.  The program doesnt like their chances, but this likely will be a battle

Gonzaga vs Xavier

Gonzaga Wins by7

Gonzaga Wins 79% of matchups

Team	EFg%	Tov%	FTRate	OReb%	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Gonzaga	57.3	16	30.3	38.6	41.6	17.7	25.3	25.6	119.6	87.3
Xavier	52.2	18.6	34.9	41.5	51.5	17.7	25	33.6	116	99.1

KU has been the team that leaves you worrying at halftime, and then by 5 minutes left in the second half is up by 15 and pulling away.  Against Oregon though a slow start could bury them.  

Kansas vs Oregon

Kansas Wins by1

Kansas Wins 55% of matchups

Team	EFg%	Tov%	FTRate	OReb%	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Kansas	56.3	17.8	34.1	36.2	47.7	18.5	29.7	30.7	121.8	94.9
Oregon	55.8	17.1	32.9	34.9	46.6	19.8	29.9	26.2	118.8	94.8

Elite 8 Charts

A pretty boring Sweet 16.  Only the lower ranking games had any real excitment, with all the others ending as double digit blowouts.  We've still got three 1 seeds left, so hopefully we get some fireworks in before the Final Four.

 

The Jayhawks continue to be the most consistent team in the tournament, looking good throughout their game against Maryland.  The game started close, but KU was able to strangle the Terrapins offensive game at the start of the second half and pull away.  Villanova though poses a very real challenge, especially after how thoroughly they were able to beat a surprising Miami squad.  A game that saw the 'cats shoot 76.6% TS% will have them looking for the upset here.  In a toss up, Im sticking with the most consistent team.

 

The Tar Heels should have little issue dispatching the pesky Irish.  Notre Dame's downfall is a defense thats fairly porous, ranking only 128th in Defg% and failing to force turnovers, at just a 14% clip.

 The Cavaliers showed little trouble in frustrating an Iowa State offense that routinely put up big points.  They forced 12 turnovers, or 17% of Iowa State's possessions.  Syracuse has been a sticky team, after being left out in most prognostications of who would make the tourney.  If Virginia can be as efficient as they were tonight, this should not be close.

 

The second most intriguing matchup, the Ducks will meet the Sooners for the first time in the Tourney since 1939.  The Ducks do well not letting teams get to the line, posting a stingy FT/FGA rate.  But they are not always great on closing out on the perimeter, and Buddy Hield will make them pay.  The Sooners boast the second best 3 point percentage in the nation.

What happened in the Elite 8?

An exciting basketball weekend, with an overtime game between two of the premiere coaches, a powerhouse team grapple to the death with its opponent, and an on fire shooting performance from a Junior.  All in all, it was a great time to watch.  It was also abysmally frustrating, as the program went 0-4 picking these games, and most of them werent close.  I always like to delve into the game specifics when that happens, to see why the program would have liked a team more and what caused the game to go so differently.  So, here are my observations for each game.

Arizona vs Wisconsin:  Both teams really played up to their offensive capacity here.  The game flowed more at Arizona's seasonl pace, but the Badgers took full advantage posting an effective field goal percentage about 13% higher than normal.  The driver of that was Sam Dekker going on fire from beyond the arc in the second half.  As the Badgers came out of the tunnel, Dekker had gone just 2-5 in the first half, missing his only three point attempt.  From then on though, he went 5-5 from beyond the arc, with a ridiculous .959 true shooting for the game.  Dekker basically won this game for Wisconsin, since he also got to the line on basically two thirds of his shot attempts.

Michigan State vs Louisville: This game I wasn't too surprised by.  Louisville had played a long tough game against NC State in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State is a formidable team.  This game though came down to a 7 minute stretch in the second half.  The Spartans played good defense, and Louisville went ice cold.  At about 14 minutes left, Blackshear hit three free throws.  Until 6 and half minutes, the Cardinals would make one field goal.  They missed 10 shots during that period.  Their three point lead turned into a four point defeceit. 

Kentucky vs Notre Dame: This game should have been a much bigger win for the Wildcats.  The Irish, despite being the best shooting team in the country had just a% effective field goal rate, and had three starters shoot at 35% or less.  Kentucky got to the line about 15% more of the time on their shots, outrebounded the Irish, and hit just as many threes on six fewer attempts.  Trey Lyles though had an awful game.  He more than doubled his turnover rate for the season, and was the low man for shooting amongst the starters.  That's the kind of perfromance from a player thats getting touches on almost 39% of the Wildcats' posessions that will make what should have been a clear victory come down to a nailbiter.

Duke vs Gonzaga: This game is one that the program had pegged as a clear blowout for the Zags, and they instead got taken to the cleaners.  Both teams shot well, keeping up with their season rankings as top 5 shooting teams.  The Zags downfall was an inability to get to the line.  They don't normally rely on the charity stripe, but if you can only draw nine fouls in the modern game, you arent going to win very often.  The Zags also couldn't force a turnover to save their tournament lives.  Duke turned it over just twice, while forcing thirteen of them.  Even with those failures, the Zags had a chance, with the game being an open layup away from being tied with five minutes left. 

Elite 8 Charts, Data, Win%

Things went fairly to plan in the Sweet 16.  Kentucky and Gonzaga easily handled their opponents, while a majority of the field was competitive through most of game time. The linear solver saw a closer game of Notre Dame and the Shockers, but the mid major darlings went cold shooting again (which was the same thing that had doomed them two years ago during their last Final 4 run).  Overall got 7/8 games picked correctly, with the Sooners being the only big swing and a miss.

Arizona vsWisconsin

Expected Outcome: Arizona by 1

Arizona has a 51% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Arizona	53.58	16.71	34.14	47.12	44.32	21.10	22.32	36.30	116.01	86.38
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.260

Duke vs Gonzaga

Expected Outcome: Gonzaga by 1

Gonzaga has a 52% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Gonzaga	58.44	16.27	33.87	39.13	43.59	17.62	28.62	31.64	119.44	93.43

Kentucky vs Notre Dame

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 10

Kentucky has a 88% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
Notre Dame	58.58	14.44	28.08	37.13	48.06	17.38	31.60	23.34	122.23	99.67

Michigan St. vs Louisville

Expected Outcome: Louisville by 1

Louisville has a 52% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Louisville	47.81	17.76	35.15	38.81	43.45	21.76	30.94	34.66	105.88	89.36
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07