NCAA FInal 4 Predictions 2019

March Madness enters its final weekend, with several surprise teams.  Auburn and Texas Tech were most assuredly not supposed to be here, but some outstanding performances have given each of them a shot at the title.  The Cavaliers still have the best shot though, as that team that has just dominated all season.  Below are the current odds of each team to win the title.  The most common match up is Michigan State vs Virginia, which would be a pretty stellar end to the season.

Virginia	45.86
Michigan State	32.66
Texas Tech	11.86
Auburn	9.62

Virginia Wins 74.1% average margin of victory 5.7

 Michigan State Wins 64.6% ,  average margin of victory of 3.2

Kansas vs Villanova Final 4 Matchup

The Jayhawks and the Wildcats are both blue bloods in the college basketball world, and both have played terrific basketball this tournament to get here. Outside of a tight game with Duke, both teams cruised through their previous rounds thanks to being adept shooting teams, ranking in the top 10 in EFG and 2 point shooting percentages.  Neither team is really great at generating free throws, ranking just in the top 90 or so in Free throw rate, but the Wildcats still manage to rank number one in offensive Efficiency.  KU was a much swingier team going through this season, and the program hasn't liked them all tournament.  I think this game will be close, but if Nova can ump out a bit they should be able to advance.

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Oreb	FTRate	DEFG	D-TOV%	DOreb	D-FTRate	Ortg	Drtg
Kansas	57.68	16.71	29.44	26.91	48.58	18.36	31.33	24.98	120.99	97.12
Villanova	59.32	15.00	29.54	29.81	48.47	18.42	27.27	26.40	127.26	94.60

Loyola-Chicago vs Michigan Final 4 Matchup

In the first Final 4 matchup, we have a pair of under dogs making their way.  Loyola Chicago won several tight games to continue as a Cinderella, thanks largely to good defense (ranking 19th in defensive efficiency) and excellent 3 point shooting, ranking 11th in the nation.  Clayton Cluster ranks 20th in the nation overall for the Ramblers in 3 point shooting.  Michigan counters with a strong defense of their own, allowing an EFG% of just 47.6.  This game should be a bit grindy, with both teams having a slow tempo to compliment their defensive styles.  The program gives the Wolverines a slight edge, but I wouldn't be surprised if this one went down to the wire.

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Oreb	FTRate	DEFG	D-TOV%	Dreb	D-FTRate	Ortg	Drtg
Loyola-Chicago	58.0	18.9	22.2	32.4	47.4	19.5	25.8	25.1	112.1	95.4
Michigan	54.3	14.0	25.5	30.6	47.6	19.4	24.7	29.8	115.4	91.1

NCAA Final Four: Title Chances

We're down to 4 now.  We've had stunners and blow outs, and one Cinderella is still dancing. Today is just a simple break down of how the program sees the Final 4 going.  I'll have some more detailed lots for each of the teams up in the next couple days as well to highlight their strengths and weaknesses.

Team 1	Team 2	Margin	Team 1 Chance to Win
Loyola Chicago	Michigan	Michigan by 3	38.00%
Kansas	Villanova	Villanova by 5	29.00%

The program in each matchup likes the favorite.  I'm a little surprised that Michigan and Loyola are so close, but Loyola's highs have been higher this year and they've been shooting lights out from three all season to give them a chance.  The program has not liked KU all year but they forced Duke to shoot poorly from 3 last week and will hope to do it again against Nova.

Overall across all match ups the program likes Nova over Michigan, but gives even Loyola a 5% chance to win it outright. 

NCAAF Playoff Odds

For the playoff picture I've created a couple of easy stacked charts to show each teams chance of advancing to the Title game, and an overall picture of their odds of winning the National Title.


Clemson and Alabama gets a rubber match in the semi-final round.  The program likes Clemson's overall season better, but its going to be close.  The predicted margin is under a field goal, but I think Clemson has been just more consistent this year.  Alabama is also now down a D coordinator, which we saw last year hurt as Lane Kiffin left.

Clemson has a 64% chance to advance

This game is going to be amazing.  The Sooners offense has pounded just about everyone they've faced, but the Bulldogs are easily the best defense they will face.  The Dawgs offense is no slouch either, and the Sooners run defense is one of the worst in the Nation.  Another close one, but I think Georgia has enough D to get a few stops and win out.

Georgia has a 58% Chance to Advance

Overall the Program likes Clemson to advance and win against either opponent, but both games would be nail biters.  This might just be the best year for the playoff committee yet, with 3 potentially amazing games.

 

Clemson:42%, Georgia:23%,Alabama 17%, Oklahoma 13%

NCAA Final 4 charting

We've come to the Final Four, and its certainly not the group we had been expecting.  Gonzaga and North Carolina most folks could have seen entering this realm, but Oregon was a long shot especially after losing Chris Boucher in the PAC12 tournament.  Broucher was the rim protector the Ducks needed, recording a 12% block rate.  Even more surprising though is the Gamecocks of South Carolina.  This is a team that ranks 299th by Ken Pomeroy's ratings for effective field goal percentage, and commits a ton of fouls (45.3 rate of Free throws attempted to field goals attempted).  Their lock down defense though forced Baylor to go 14-43 from two point range in this tournament.

Gonzaga vs South Carolina

Gonzaga Wins by 7
Gonzaga Wins 78% of matchups

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	DoReb%	dFTRate	ORtg	DRtg
Gonzaga	57.3	16	30.3	38.6	41.6	17.7	25.3	25.6	119.6	87.3
South Carolina	47.1	18.6	34	39.9	45.5	24.5	31.3	46.3	107.5	88.8

While South Carolina has lived by their ability to frustrate shooters, Gonzaga has been able to do the same but also can also light up a scoreboard.   South Carolina has run on great defense and some timely scoring, but its unlikely to hold on here.

North Carolina vs Oregon

North Carolina Wins by1
North Carolina Wins 51% of matchups

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	DoReb%	dFTRate	ORtg	DRtg
North Carolina	52.1	16.5	42.2	33.3	48.4	18.9	24.7	30.7	121.2	93.9
Oregon	55.8	17.1	32.9	34.9	46.6	19.8	29.9	26.2	118.8	94.8

 This game should be a tight one.  Oregon is a bit more efficient in their shooting (on both ends), but UNC is a bit more efficient on a per possession basis.  Its a toss up, but I do think the Tar Heels can get it done, since they should be better on the boards without Boucher there and allow Kennedy Meeks inside to really do some damage.

Final Four Odds and Matchup Charts

A wild weekend sets up a very intriguing set of games for the Final Four.  Virginia blew a lead as their offense settled into a funk against the tremendous zone of Syracuse, while Villanova finished strong in both halves to be able to move past KU (who actually shot better than the Wildcats from the field). 

I've currently got UNC with a 36% chance to win the Tournament now, with Nova at 33% and Oklahoma at 23%.  The pesky Orange have a 7% chance of winning it if they can get past UNC (27% chance)

Currently only UNC provides a negative EV according to Vegas, with Villanova being pretty harshly underrated with the best EV mark currently.  They've also certainly got the tougher draw, in needing to stop the one man wrecking crew known as Buddy Hield.

Final 4 Charts,Data,Win%

Almost there.  Its been a pretty solid tournament for the program, and an overall very good season.  We'll see if it can get back on track with picking the Finals teams after getting beaten up in the Elite 8.  I again think here the program has picked a winner in each game.  The program has underestimated Michigan State all tounrament though, so it might be closer than it thinks.  I do think Kentucky gets past the Badgers in better fashion than 4 points.  Good offenses going cold in the tournament is far more devastating than a team giving up points on defense. 

Duke vs Michigan St.

Expected Outcome: Duke by 6

Duke has a 76.5% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07

Kentucky vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 4

Kentucky has a 67% chance to advance

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.26