So we begin the final march to the Super Bowl with my beloved Denver Broncos sitting at home. There will be still reason to watch of course, as the opening weekend gives us some very intriguing matchups, especially in the NFC. In the table below I have the odds for each team to advance through each weekend upcoming, and chances to win the conference.
In the AFC, its predicting an inevitable Patriots trip to the Super Bowl, and its tough to see why not. Brady has been exceptional again this season, and the run defense is actually one of the most efficient in the game by DVOA (-23.7%), which is key when you've got home field in a likely very cold and snowy Massachusetts. The Chiefs are the intriguing team here though, because I definitely would not pick them over the Steelers going by my own thoughts. They don't defend the run well enough to hold up against Bell, but their variance in efficiency on offense ranks 31st, at a whopping 10.6%. I am very skeptical about the Raiders getting past the Texans without David Carr or Matt Mcgloin. Connor Cook making his first start ever against what is a pretty darn tough Texans team causes concern. But maybe the complete ineptitude of Houston's offense makes up for it.
In the NFC, we have a surprise pick with the Falcons getting past the Cowboys. The program tends to approve more of offensive teams, which the Falcons are. They're number 1 in offensive DVOA, against the Cowboys 3rd ranked unit. Its in the variability though that the Falcons have such a strong edge, where they were within 2.8% for the season, to the Cowboys 7.2%. The key though will be which defense gets a stop. Neither one is truly elite, and both struggle against the other team;s strength (ATlanta vs the run, Dallas vs the Pass). The Packers could play spoiler here since they've been so hot down the stretch, but I still think Atlanta has the weapons to outduel them, or the Cowboys have the superior offensive line to grind down a defense that was one of the worst in rushing situations.
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