Monday, June 5, 2017

NBA Finals: Notes after two games

The first two games of the NBA Finals have shown us just how dominating the Golden State Warriors can be.  Kevin Durant has run roughshod over the Cavs, posting True Shooting rates of 64% and 59% in the first two contests, while also having a 97 and 93 Drtg.  It hasn't helped that the Cavs are basically playing no defense, with their team ratings of 113 and 124.  If they can't somehow slow down Durant, the Cavs are looking to get swept away at home by this ultra high powered Warriros team.  Other Notes:

  • Things could be even worse for the Cavs as we saw in Game 2 when the Warriors are getting to the line.  During the regular season, both teams posted a roughly 20.5% FT/FGA rate.  The Cavs have been slightly ahead of their rate through two games, going to the line on 29% and 19% so far.  The Warriors reached the cahrity stripe a paltry 15% of their attempts in Game 1, but posted a 27% rate in Game 2.  The biggest loser in this is Kyrie Irving.  Regular season he got free throws on 23% of his attempts.  Games 1 and 2: 4.5 and 8.7.  That will not cut it in today's NBA
  • The Cavs bench has been pretty ineffective so far.  Of the bench players getting at least 10 minutes per game, only Richard Jefferson has a True shooting rate of over 50%.  Jefferson and Deron WIlliams are also near team "leaders" for turnover rate despite averaging 14 and 16 minutes respectively.  
  • JR Smith is playing abysmal basketball so far.  33% turnover rate, 25% True SHooting, and 5 fouls in about 21 minutes a game.  His defense has been bad too, as his man has shot 91% throught two games.
  • If the Cavs can contain KD, its encouraging that Klay Thompson broke out of his shooting woes in Game 2.  Going 8-12, including 4 of 7 from distance gave him a team leading 83.3% TS rate.  Klay's defense has been solid, but its his shooting that will break the Cavs if he can keep it going.
  • The Cavs are a much better team at home than on the road, where they were just 7 games above .500. The Warriors though are roughly the same team on the road,so expect an epic game. 

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