NBA Finals 2019 Predictions

We've now come to the end of the season, with just a handful of games left for the NBA.  It's been a wild ride, and we've gotten a fairly wild finale to go with it.  Most folks had the Warriors here, but their Eastern opponents were murkier to predict.  The Raptors though stormed through their last 4 games to get past the Bucks whom I thought were the strongest team in the East.  Here's how the two teams stack up over the last 4 games


Its important to look at these last 4 games because it might be closer to the version of the teams we actually see, the Warriors without KD and the Raptors hitting on all cylinders.  The program this year has not really liked the Warriors, thanks to their higher variability with injuries and some just overall lapses in play quality. They however rolled right through the team that had been best since the trade deadline (Houston), and waltzed through the Blazers without KD.  The Raptors struggled more through their series, needing 7 games to best the Sixers and looked a bit lost to start against Milwaukee as they've struggled with some of their own injuries.  However they rolled the last 4 games, even as Kawahi looked a little gimpy on the right quad. 

The program overall thinks the Raptors are a slightly worse, but more consistent team.  It will be interesting to see how the Warriors re-introduce KD if he's healthy, and if Kawahi Leonard can slow down  Draymond Green more than the Blazers front court could.  The Warriors in all likeliehood have the advantage here, but if KD struggles to work back in or any of Steph's nagging injuries flare up, the Raptors are one of the best teams and can capitalize on it. 

Toronto Series Wins: 57.7%
Golden State Series Wins: 42..%
Average Games Needed: 7

NCAA 2019 FInals Prediction

We've reach the last college basketball game of the year tonight, and we have a good one in Texas Tech vs Virginia.  The Cavaliers have been thought of as the top dog almost all year with Duke, ranking 3rd in offense and 5th in defense according to kenpom.com.  Texas Tech has been a surprise this year, but they've one it through a stifling defense, ranking 1st in KenPom's numbers.  Both teams play a bit slower, aiding that defensive efficiency by limiting possessions. Tonight's game is likely to be low scoring, but it should be excellent to watch a pair of teams that are masters of their limited possessions work against each other. 

Virginia Wins 74.4%

Virginia wins by 5.3

Team	EFG	TOV%	Oreb	FTRate	DEFG	DTOV%	DoReb	DFTRate	Ortg	Drtg
Texas Tech	53.80	18.21	28.57	33.81	42.83	23.10	28.56	36.90	113.02	85.46
Virginia	55.75	14.90	30.19	29.48	43.81	17.83	25.47	26.84	123.01	88.19

NBA Finals Predictions

The NBA Finals are back with the same match up for a third year in a row.  Color me a bit unexcited as really the worst Cavs team now matches up against the same basic Warriors team from last year. 

Warriors win 67% of the time in 6 games

The program really does not give the Cavs much of a chance here.  Sure, they'll likely steal a couple because Lebron will do Lebron things, but that's pretty much it.  The Cavs have had a couple of players step up at different times throughout these playoffs, but its been the unmitigated hero ball of Lebron that has salvaged what should have been a wrecked season. 

The Warriors will likely try to keep up the pace that theyve run at this post season, averaging almost 100 possessions a game.  The Cavs have been a little bit better than the Warriors in transition this playoffs, posting a 131 ORtg, but noone has been better than the Warriors at defending those shots, which tilts it back to the Warriors favor.  The biggest struggle for the Cavs will be if their Guards can match up.  The Warriors guards have had the best Ast-Turonver Ratio so far these playoffs, and the Cavs guards are posting a pretty meh 107 Drtg for their own. 

NBA Finals: Notes after two games

The first two games of the NBA Finals have shown us just how dominating the Golden State Warriors can be.  Kevin Durant has run roughshod over the Cavs, posting True Shooting rates of 64% and 59% in the first two contests, while also having a 97 and 93 Drtg.  It hasn't helped that the Cavs are basically playing no defense, with their team ratings of 113 and 124.  If they can't somehow slow down Durant, the Cavs are looking to get swept away at home by this ultra high powered Warriros team.  Other Notes:

• Things could be even worse for the Cavs as we saw in Game 2 when the Warriors are getting to the line.  During the regular season, both teams posted a roughly 20.5% FT/FGA rate.  The Cavs have been slightly ahead of their rate through two games, going to the line on 29% and 19% so far.  The Warriors reached the cahrity stripe a paltry 15% of their attempts in Game 1, but posted a 27% rate in Game 2.  The biggest loser in this is Kyrie Irving.  Regular season he got free throws on 23% of his attempts.  Games 1 and 2: 4.5 and 8.7.  That will not cut it in today's NBA
• The Cavs bench has been pretty ineffective so far.  Of the bench players getting at least 10 minutes per game, only Richard Jefferson has a True shooting rate of over 50%.  Jefferson and Deron WIlliams are also near team "leaders" for turnover rate despite averaging 14 and 16 minutes respectively.  
• JR Smith is playing abysmal basketball so far.  33% turnover rate, 25% True SHooting, and 5 fouls in about 21 minutes a game.  His defense has been bad too, as his man has shot 91% throught two games.
• If the Cavs can contain KD, its encouraging that Klay Thompson broke out of his shooting woes in Game 2.  Going 8-12, including 4 of 7 from distance gave him a team leading 83.3% TS rate.  Klay's defense has been solid, but its his shooting that will break the Cavs if he can keep it going.
• The Cavs are a much better team at home than on the road, where they were just 7 games above .500. The Warriors though are roughly the same team on the road,so expect an epic game. 

NBA Finals Predictions

The Finals are here.  Its the matchup that prognosticators have called for this entire season.  The question will be which set of All Stars will triumph?  The Warriors have swept everyone they've played so far, giving them several extra days of rest inbetween.  The Cavs have had just a single setback, coming against a red hot shooting Celtics team that wasn't able to sustain themselves without Iisaih Thomas for more than a short time.  Lets look at a few notes from the playoffs that might make a difference in this series.

• Despite being know as an outside shooting team, the Warriors are actually taking far more shots inside the restricted zone than the Cavs.  Through both teams having played 12 playoff games, the totals stood at 282 attempts by the Cavs, 317 by the Warriors.  They both are proficient at it, hitting 65% of those shots.  
• The Cavs live and die by Lebron, but Kevin Love has been exceptionally important this playoffs.  He leads the team in ORtg, and is tied with Lebron in net rating.
• The Warriors have spread out the bench playing time a bit more than the Cavs, with only six players that have averaged more than 15 inutes per game in the playoffs.  The Cavs have 8, and thats with Lebron putting in over 40 per game.  
• Of those players, the only Cav not to have a 60% True shooting rate is Kyrie Irving.  The Warriors have a pair of players with True Shooting under 50%, Klay Thompson and Andre Igudola. 

Golden State Warriors Series Wins: 0.90455
Cleveland Cavaliers Series Wins: 0.09545
Average Games Needed: 5

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Golden State Warriors	56.4	13.2	20.5	22.8	48.5	13.5	20.1	74.9	115.8	104	99.8
Cleveland Cavaliers	54.8	12.5	20.5	22	51.6	11.5	17.4	75.7	113.9	110.3	96.2

The program does not look kindly on this series.  The Cavs defense has been the issue the whole season, and its been improved in the playoffs to a 105 mark.  And their offense has been even better, posting a 119 mark.  However the Warriors already solid D has been even better, all the way down to 99 points per 100 posessions, a mark that would have been the best in the league in the regular season. If Klay Thompson heats up, this prediction is probably closer to true than anyone in Cleveland would care to admit.  However, if Lebron and Love can continue to play this well and play defense to keep Klay down, they;ve got a shot.

NCAA Championship Charts

The end of the 2016-2017 NCAA Men's seaosn plays out tomorrow night, with two of the more storied squads of the past decade making an appearance.  Gonzaga is a firt timer to the final dance, making a great run through a bracket that was filled with upstart teams.  The Tar Heels make it after clipping an agressive Oregon team and playing in a very tough ACC. 

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	dFTRate	DoReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Gonzaga	57.3	16	30.3	38.6	41.6	17.7	25.3	25.6	119.6	87.3
North Carolina	52.1	16.5	42.2	33.3	48.4	18.9	24.7	30.7	121.2	93.9

Both teams are well rated/ They both shoot at a great rate and both play good solid defense.  The Tar Heels are a bit better on the boards, but the Zags stifle more of their opponents shooting.  It will be a close game tomorrow night, but I have the Zags pulling it out in the end.  Teh program gives them a 2 poitn advantage, and a 59.5% chance of winning.

NBA Finals Game 7 Scores

The NBA season has finally reached its pinnacle.  After a playoffs full of blowouts, we get to see one last fight between the Warriors and Cavs take place back in Oakland.  The Warriors are trying to regroup from one of the most disastorous games I think Ive seen from a starting lineup, posting just a 36 O Rtg and a negative 84.6 rating overall.  The killer was as I pointed out the other day, that the so called lineup of death fouls at a prodigous rate, and they had a rate of over 55% for the night in Game 6.  It also did not help that as a team they shot just 38% on three poitn attempts that were open or wide open. 

We will see if the Warriors without Bogut can tamp down on the Cavs ability to get to the rim and score.  42% of their shot attempts were from less than 10 ft out, and they made 63% of them.  If they can go back to the dominance they showed early in the series at that, the Warriors should walk off winners.  The program thinks they'll be able to figure it out, winning a tight 104-99 kind of game.It only gives them a 64% chance to do so though, largely because of the quickly disappearing defense over the last 3 games.

NBA Finals Game 6 Scores

The most important cog for the Warriors machine would appear to be Draymond Green and his defensive acumen. The Cavs top three lineups were able to post an average 122 offensive rating while on the floor, helping to annihilate Golden State at Oracle. Green returns though for a trip to Cleveland where his most common lineup has held the Cavs to just a 108 rating. This could be largely why the program gives the Warriors a 68% chance to walk off as champions tonight, winning an average of 107-100.

It will be interesting to see though if missing Andrew Bogut hampers the west coasters. He's been on the court for a majority of the playoffs this year and his rim protection has helped allow a lot of the help defense Golden State likes to play. It should also be interesting since the lineup of death allows nearly every 40% of opponent field goals to add a free throw attempt, as opposed to just 17% with Bogut in the lineup.

NBA Finals Game 5 Scores

The NBA playoffs continue to be excitingly weird.  The Cavs missed almost all of their open shots at home ( and let the Warriors take 28 of their 36 attempts as open beyond the arc) to allow the Warriors to steal game 4 and all but eliminate them. Then the Draymond Green decided to take another nut shot at an opponent and has been suspended for Game 5. This is a pretty unprecedented event, and how exactly Golden State responds will be interesting. Green has averaged just under 40 minutes a game this series, with the top two lineups without him also feature Leandro Barbosa and Mo Speights with significant time.

To build an actual team model without Green is very difficult because of his super high minutes. However, even tamping down the Warriors a bit without him and elevating the Cavs a bit, the program sees the series ending tonight in Oakland. The Cavs have been atrocious away from Cleveland in this series with just an 85.7 Ortg and a Drtg over 115.   I'm not certain it's as certain as the 92% the program gives the dubs but the 103-92 score sounds just about right.

NBA Finals Game 4

So everything this playoffs has been goofy. Over half the games have been decided by double digits.  And I think it is largely a result of the increased 3 point attempts. We'll see how tonight goes but the program thinks the Cavs can tie things up with a 110-105 victory tonight. It should at least be interesting to see if Lebron can continue to frustrate Draymond Green and if Kevin Love is in fact the man holding back the Cavs offense.

NBA Finals Game 3 Scores

The Cavs have found themselves in a hole. Specifically a terrible shooting hole. That has been the difference for a team that had been absolutely lights out prior to this series. While a lot of folks have talked about their 3 point shot drying up, it's been the easy interior stuff that has killed them. During the regular season the Cavs hit 56% of their shots from under 10 ft. So far in this series they're shooting just 48% from that short distance. They are also missing open looks (as defined as a closest defender 4-6 feet away) at a whopping 71% rate. That's been a quarter of their shots that are uncontested and they can't make 1 in 3 of them!

The program is again super on the Cavs returning to normality, especially at home. It gives them an 88% chance to win, and thinks they'll get to 108 points. It still sees the Warriors shooting hot though, scoring 104.

NBA Finals Game 2 Score

Game 1 did not go exactly how the program had thought it would.  The Warriors for the most part were right on target, with the bench helping make up for a pretty mediocre game from the sharp shooting stars.  The Cavs though struggled inside of 10 ft, posting a pretty abysmal 43.5% on those shots.  Kyrie Irving and Lebron James were pretty big culprits on this front, going 3/6 and 6/14 respectively.  If that happens again, they will lose this series in pretty quick fashion.  The team overall will still need to shoot better from beyond the arc, but Kyrie and Lebron especially need to finish.


The program does see a big rebound.  It believes more in Lebron and Kyrie being able to bounce back than the Warriors bench being so spectacular again.  Give the Cavs a 52.7% chance to even things up on the road.

GSW' Wins: 473    CLE' Wins: 527
GSW' Average Score: 104.4354771     CLE' Average Score: 107.4435543

NBA Finals Game 1 Win Percentages

For the opening game tonight, the Warriors are 6 point favorites at home.  I think thats a bit off, my numbers have them covering only 38% of the time.  A more likely scenario is a 2 point win for Golden State to open the series, with an average score of 105-103 in their favor.

'GSW' Wins: 593    'CLE' Wins: 407
'GSW' Average Score: 105.8530419     'CLE' Average Score: 102.66593405

NBA Finals Charts

The NBA is getting a rematch for the finals.  The Warriors will seek to defend their title against Lebron James and the rest of the currently red hot Cavaliers.  Last year the Warriors won by playing a suffocating defense that held Cleveland to far under their season average ORTg, twice under a rating of under 100.  This year it looks like it will be a bit different, after the Warriors have beaten all comers with an offensive barrage all season.  The Cavs are well rested though, and have Kevin Love has been playing great ball, shooting 55.6% TS%. 

I think this series goes the distance,as the Cavs do pose a length issue that the Warriors have struggled with against the Thunder.  The faster pace that the Warriors play at wont really hurt the Cavs so much, since theyve been shooting lights out from distance so far.  With Curry being injured and Draymond Green not playing great ball (and the Cavs have plenty of instigators to possibly get him T'd up and suspended), I think the Cavs avenge last season's defeat. 

NCAA Mens Championship game 2016 Charts

Another season of college basketball comes to a close tomorrow night.  With what has been one of the wildest seasons in the game's storied history, it is a bit of a let down that we get treated to the preseason number 1 and number 11 teams.  But, this should be a great game, as both teams have hit a wonderful stride in the tournament.  Villanova was able to just stomp all over Oklahoma, posting over a 1.5 points per possession mark.  The Tar Heels themselves had the most efficient offense this season, posting a 127 ORtg mark and were able to match that last night against the Syracuse zone.  They also were able to hold the Orange to just 1 point per possession. 

NBA Finals Charts, and Winners

So we have reached the end of the road here for the NBA season.  The Cavs were able to overcome their slow start and other issues of melding a team together to surge past a banged up Eastern Conference favorite Hawks.  Can they get past the now battle tested Warriors, who have made all the right adjustments in their series to win?  The Program has a resounding no, giving the Cavs under 20% chance to win the series.  I can't neccessairliy disagree.  The Warriors will play the best defense the Cavs have seen, and are far deeper.  They also have the star power to counteract Lebron having his way. 

Golden State vs Cleveland

Warriors Chance to win at Home: 71.8%

Cavs Chance to win at Home: 41.6%

Warriors win series 82.3% of the time

Most commonly in 5 games

Team	EFG%	Tov%	FT Rate	OReb	DEFG%	DTov%	D-FT Rate	DReb	ORtg	DRtg	Pace
Cleveland Cavaliers	52	13.4	21.6	26.8	50.2	12.6	17.7	74.7	111.1	106.3	92.3
Golden State Warriors	54	13.1	18.4	24.1	47	14.3	21.7	74.5	111.6	101.4	98.3

Championship 2015

So we come to the final game of the season.  The program wraps a pretty successful season, going at about 70% in terms of outright wins, and about 60% against the spread.  It needs some tweaks for the power conferences playing against mid majors, but otherwise I'm pretty happy with its performance.  The tournament certainly needs some tweaking, but that's more accounting for wide variability. 

Duke vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Wisconsin by 1

Wisconsin has a 54% chance to win

 

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	OReb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	DReb%	ORtg	DRtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.7	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.7	94.26