We did another scenario in Gloomhaven this weekend. This time we did get a rule wrong, because we didn't check the requirements at the top of the mission closely enough. We needed to have another item before doing this one, but we had already set up and played the first round by the time we realized it. SO we just went with it, and figured we just need to be more careful next time. This mission wasn't overly exciting but was a nice test of making sure we are getting better at card management. We did complete this quest, but only just barely. Thanks to a miscommunication of what our Spellweaver was doing on their turn, I ended up getting knocked out and the party almost ran out of cards. But thanks to some lucky card pulls we pulled it out in the end.
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Monday, August 27, 2018
College Football Picks Week 1 2018
We got our appetizer last weekend with 4 games, and now its time for the main course. There are a lot of teams in action this weekend, and a lot of good match ups. ND Michigan, WVU-Tennessee, and Texas Tech and Ole Miss are withing a point of each other. We get other match ups like Washington and Auburn being a TD close, and an Alabama-Louisville game that should be fun to watch. Not a good week for road teams, as only 11 are favored to win by the program.
Friday, August 24, 2018
College Football Week 0 2018
Its back! We've got college football again. There aren't any really great match ups this week, but New Mexico State and Wyoming could be an interesting matchup at least.
Thursday, August 23, 2018
Predicting the Broncos 53 Man Roster and some thoughts on the roster
We're now through a pair of preseason games, and things are starting to take shape for the final roster. There are a lot of guys like Von Miller, Case Keenum, Chris Harris Jr and all that we know are locks currently to remain on the roster. Lets break it down by group though for those who might make the team and those who might have to really impress to keep a spot.
QB
Denver I think keeps two QBs this year. There is so much talent at so many other positions, and what we've seen so far from Chad Kelley leads me to believe he has a shot at being at least serviceable starter in his NFL career. This, combined with Paxton Lynch looking possibly worse this past week going against lesser competition. I don't see any way that Lynch can make the team at this point.
Denver I think keeps two QBs this year. There is so much talent at so many other positions, and what we've seen so far from Chad Kelley leads me to believe he has a shot at being at least serviceable starter in his NFL career. This, combined with Paxton Lynch looking possibly worse this past week going against lesser competition. I don't see any way that Lynch can make the team at this point.
WR
This might be the deepest the Broncos have been at wideout in my lifetime. DT and Emmanuel Sanders are locks. So are Hamilton and Sutton who have been very solid so far. The question from there now is the last two spots. Denver has a logjam with two spots, and a lot of talented guys. Tim Patrick had several nice catches, and River Cracraft has been good in camp. Jon Diarse has also seen plenty of playing time, while Isaiah Mckenzie is still penciled in as the starting punt returner. To add to it, Carlos Henderson returned to Dove Valley today to try and get back into the good graces. I think Mckenzie makes the squad thanks to his return ability and that chance that he can turn it up. So there is one spot left. I honestly think it goes to Tim Patrick, who has looked very good in games and has been on kick coverage teams.
This might be the deepest the Broncos have been at wideout in my lifetime. DT and Emmanuel Sanders are locks. So are Hamilton and Sutton who have been very solid so far. The question from there now is the last two spots. Denver has a logjam with two spots, and a lot of talented guys. Tim Patrick had several nice catches, and River Cracraft has been good in camp. Jon Diarse has also seen plenty of playing time, while Isaiah Mckenzie is still penciled in as the starting punt returner. To add to it, Carlos Henderson returned to Dove Valley today to try and get back into the good graces. I think Mckenzie makes the squad thanks to his return ability and that chance that he can turn it up. So there is one spot left. I honestly think it goes to Tim Patrick, who has looked very good in games and has been on kick coverage teams.
OL
The starting group here is pretty well set, and I'm excited for the left side of the line with Bolles and Leary locking it down. This leaves 3 spots if last season's roster tells us anything. Max Garcia is locked in I think with a solid enough camp, and the versatility to play anywhere on the interior. Billy Turner looks to be the swing tackle. So it comes down to whether Denver keeps Sam Jones or Andreas Knappe or Cyrus Kouandijo. Jones was a pick this year, but he's been super raw. Knappe is a bit higher on the depth chart, but Kounadijo has been around a bit. This week Knappe is unlikely to play, giving Kounadijo the edge.
The starting group here is pretty well set, and I'm excited for the left side of the line with Bolles and Leary locking it down. This leaves 3 spots if last season's roster tells us anything. Max Garcia is locked in I think with a solid enough camp, and the versatility to play anywhere on the interior. Billy Turner looks to be the swing tackle. So it comes down to whether Denver keeps Sam Jones or Andreas Knappe or Cyrus Kouandijo. Jones was a pick this year, but he's been super raw. Knappe is a bit higher on the depth chart, but Kounadijo has been around a bit. This week Knappe is unlikely to play, giving Kounadijo the edge.
TE
This could be a big year for this position. Jeff Heuerman looks to be healthy, and Jake Butt will be making his debut. Troy Fumagalli is working back from an injury which I think puts him at risk. Austin Traylor I liked a lot last year, and Matt Lacosse has been featured. Id prefer Traylor for his blocking.
This could be a big year for this position. Jeff Heuerman looks to be healthy, and Jake Butt will be making his debut. Troy Fumagalli is working back from an injury which I think puts him at risk. Austin Traylor I liked a lot last year, and Matt Lacosse has been featured. Id prefer Traylor for his blocking.
RB
Another position of depth, and a lot of youth here. Booker and Freeman are going to do a lot of time sharing this season while Andy Janovich is versatile and gives the offense another option. I think Denver keeps 5 backs, as they did last year. Phillip Lindsay has been impressive (Go Buffs!) and is safe. I think David Williams is the last man on, edging out Henderson to give the backs a bit of size that they would lack otherwise.
Another position of depth, and a lot of youth here. Booker and Freeman are going to do a lot of time sharing this season while Andy Janovich is versatile and gives the offense another option. I think Denver keeps 5 backs, as they did last year. Phillip Lindsay has been impressive (Go Buffs!) and is safe. I think David Williams is the last man on, edging out Henderson to give the backs a bit of size that they would lack otherwise.
DL
This unit is going to give other teams nightmares. Derek Wolfe, Domato Peko and Adam Gotsis provide a solid core of starters. Add in Shelby Harris and Demarcus Walker to the rotation and it will be solid. Denver carried 7 lineman last year. Zack Kerr played solid rotational minutes last year and likely sticks. The handful of others left for the last spot has some vets in Paul Boyette and Clint McDonald. But I think Kyle Peko ends up with the last spot there thanks to his ability to play nose and a 5 technique in a pinch
This unit is going to give other teams nightmares. Derek Wolfe, Domato Peko and Adam Gotsis provide a solid core of starters. Add in Shelby Harris and Demarcus Walker to the rotation and it will be solid. Denver carried 7 lineman last year. Zack Kerr played solid rotational minutes last year and likely sticks. The handful of others left for the last spot has some vets in Paul Boyette and Clint McDonald. But I think Kyle Peko ends up with the last spot there thanks to his ability to play nose and a 5 technique in a pinch
OLB
There was some thought Shane Ray might have been traded or released this year after the team declined his 5th year option. But he's had a solid camp coming back from a wrist injury and looks to be the third backer behind Von and Chubb. The Broncos only carried 4 Outside Backers last year, meaning Shaq Barrett rounds out the group. There is an outside chance Denver carries 5, which I think has Jeff Holland making the team as a developmental guy.
There was some thought Shane Ray might have been traded or released this year after the team declined his 5th year option. But he's had a solid camp coming back from a wrist injury and looks to be the third backer behind Von and Chubb. The Broncos only carried 4 Outside Backers last year, meaning Shaq Barrett rounds out the group. There is an outside chance Denver carries 5, which I think has Jeff Holland making the team as a developmental guy.
ILB
The Broncos addressed this position in the draft to help shore up the reserves here. Brandon Marshall and Todd Davis are the starters, but Josey Jewell I think earns a lot of playing time. For the last reserve spot Zaire Anderson has the inside track, but he hasn't looked super sharp in the preseason so far. Keishawn Bierria had a solid career at Washington and has been a solid player so far. I still think its Anderson buts its closer than it was a couple weeks ago.
CB
Denver needs 5 for the roster, and its pretty well set right now. Chris Harris, Bradley Roby and Tramaine Brock are the starters. Isaiah Yiadom has looked raw so far, but provides some real upside. Brendan Langley likely pulls out the last spot, but there is a very good chance Denver tries to get another veteran player to round out the group.
S
Justin Simmons is a rising star, and Darien Stewart should return to form as he's now experienced in his shift to Strong Safety. Will Parks has looked very good and he's been an excellent special teamer. The 4th spot now is a little more unclear that Jamal Carter is missing the season with his a torn hamstring. Su'a Cravens is likely the man there, but he hasn't played a down yet this preseason and might not play before the 4th game.
With 3 specialists, this brings us up to 51 players so far. I think the last spots come down to Holland, Dymonte Thomas, Alexander Johnson and Troy Fumigali. Deciding between Holland and Johnson is a tough call. Johnson just got a pretty lucrative deal but is a complete unknown. If the team is happy with Shane Rays health Johnson makes the cut there . If Su'a Cravens ends up healthy these next two weeks, Fumagali likely makes the team. But if Cravens is slow, Thomas gets it to shore up that secondary.
Monday, August 20, 2018
Gloomhaven Journals: First Scenarios
My group has finally gotten a chance to get ourselves a Gloomhaven campaign going, and I'd like to keep a bit of a narrative journal of
what is going on and follow along with our characters. We have the
Mindthief, Spellweaver, Tinkerer and Cragheart (the Cragheart being
played by myself). We did a pretty good job with the rules, besides
initially accidentally setting some of the monsters to a difficulty that
was a bit too high.
I'll be putting these entries beyond the jump in each post to help avoid spoilers. Also, this first one is going to be pretty long since we did two scenarios. Hope you all enjoy!
I'll be putting these entries beyond the jump in each post to help avoid spoilers. Also, this first one is going to be pretty long since we did two scenarios. Hope you all enjoy!
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Denver Broncos Rookie Projections
Its once again that time of year for me to make some tough projections for Denver's rookie class.
Bradley Chubb: 7 Sacks, 28 tackles.
Chubb so far has been the talk of the town, but he showed his struggles on Saturday in some run fits against the Vikings. Still though, these numbers are pretty standard for a top DE/OLB. I think at the the very worst he rotates more often and is a passing downs guy if his run troubles persist.
Courtland Sutton: 45 Catches, 620 Yards, 4 TDs
If Chubb has been on everyone's minds for the defense, Sutton has been the offensive highlight reel. He looks to fit into that third receiver role behind DT and Emmanel Sanders, creating some big mismatches for those three. This is a mid level projection for him based on other rookies since 2013, which seems likely since a lot of those leaders didn't have two great receivers as well on the roster.
Royce Freeman: 175 Carries, 780 Yards, 5 TDs
"Rolls" Royce enters a crowded group of young talented backs in Denver. He's shown the power and speed necessary to be a top line back. However, Denver will likely rotate a lot of guys here including Devontae Booker who I think is in line for a bounceback season. And ti would behoove Denver to keep a little wear of Freeman, since he had such a high workload in college.
Isaac Yiadom: 8 Passes Defensed, 2 Interceptions, 24 Tackles
Yiadom is fighting against Brandon Langley and veteran Tremaine Brock for the third corner on the roster. He played well on Saturday despite being beaten a bit by Stefon Diggs. It looks like he has the lead for the spot, and the talented BC player should be ready to shine.
Josey Jewell: 48 tackles
Jewell is probably one of the most intriguing players that Denver drafted this year. I have said for several years now the ILB corps on this team has been a huge let down, and Jewell I think might be the guy to bring it back to one of the best units in the NFL. He'll liekly start the year behind Todd Davis, but Jewell's smarts and coverage ability should help him see the field.
DaSean Hamilton: 25 Catches, 245 yards, 3 TDs
Hamilton has size and speed. He's currently pegged behind a lot of talent, but he's going to be a great playmaker going forward.
Troy Fumagali: 6 Catches, 100 Yards
Fumagali is the next big Wisconsin TE to make it to the NFL. I don't think he'll see a ton of time playing on offense unless Jeff Heuerman is injured again, and I think Jake Butt is the best receiver in the group.
Sam Jones: Practice Squad
Denver is currently overly stacked with players in the middle of the line. Jones is a big man and could use a year to djust from the offense at Arizona State.
Kieshawn Bierria: Practice Squad
The late round flyer out of Washington I think gets edged off the roster by the presence of Su'a Cravens. He had a great career with the Huskies, totaling 240 tackles.
David Williams: 25 carries, 80 yards, 1 TD
Williams is a big back and makes the squad at the expense of Carlos Henderson I think, Williams gives that big body that Denver doesnt really have amongst its corps right now, and he was a late bloomer at Arkansas.
Bradley Chubb: 7 Sacks, 28 tackles.
Chubb so far has been the talk of the town, but he showed his struggles on Saturday in some run fits against the Vikings. Still though, these numbers are pretty standard for a top DE/OLB. I think at the the very worst he rotates more often and is a passing downs guy if his run troubles persist.
Courtland Sutton: 45 Catches, 620 Yards, 4 TDs
If Chubb has been on everyone's minds for the defense, Sutton has been the offensive highlight reel. He looks to fit into that third receiver role behind DT and Emmanel Sanders, creating some big mismatches for those three. This is a mid level projection for him based on other rookies since 2013, which seems likely since a lot of those leaders didn't have two great receivers as well on the roster.
Royce Freeman: 175 Carries, 780 Yards, 5 TDs
"Rolls" Royce enters a crowded group of young talented backs in Denver. He's shown the power and speed necessary to be a top line back. However, Denver will likely rotate a lot of guys here including Devontae Booker who I think is in line for a bounceback season. And ti would behoove Denver to keep a little wear of Freeman, since he had such a high workload in college.
Isaac Yiadom: 8 Passes Defensed, 2 Interceptions, 24 Tackles
Yiadom is fighting against Brandon Langley and veteran Tremaine Brock for the third corner on the roster. He played well on Saturday despite being beaten a bit by Stefon Diggs. It looks like he has the lead for the spot, and the talented BC player should be ready to shine.
Josey Jewell: 48 tackles
Jewell is probably one of the most intriguing players that Denver drafted this year. I have said for several years now the ILB corps on this team has been a huge let down, and Jewell I think might be the guy to bring it back to one of the best units in the NFL. He'll liekly start the year behind Todd Davis, but Jewell's smarts and coverage ability should help him see the field.
DaSean Hamilton: 25 Catches, 245 yards, 3 TDs
Hamilton has size and speed. He's currently pegged behind a lot of talent, but he's going to be a great playmaker going forward.
Troy Fumagali: 6 Catches, 100 Yards
Fumagali is the next big Wisconsin TE to make it to the NFL. I don't think he'll see a ton of time playing on offense unless Jeff Heuerman is injured again, and I think Jake Butt is the best receiver in the group.
Sam Jones: Practice Squad
Denver is currently overly stacked with players in the middle of the line. Jones is a big man and could use a year to djust from the offense at Arizona State.
Kieshawn Bierria: Practice Squad
The late round flyer out of Washington I think gets edged off the roster by the presence of Su'a Cravens. He had a great career with the Huskies, totaling 240 tackles.
David Williams: 25 carries, 80 yards, 1 TD
Williams is a big back and makes the squad at the expense of Carlos Henderson I think, Williams gives that big body that Denver doesnt really have amongst its corps right now, and he was a late bloomer at Arkansas.
Thursday, August 9, 2018
NFL Season Projections
The NFL season is rapidly approaching as teams are all gong to have their first preseason games this weekend. As such, its time to start looking at which teams will have bounce-back years, who will fall from the top and who will more or less where they've been. Projecting the NFL though is actually much more difficult than college football. This comes mostly from the fact that at the college level, recruiting and the prestige of the team both play major roles and tend to be pretty well known before you get going. A team with a declining recruitment and high attrition is likely going to face issues down the line.
The NFL though sees quick turn arounds both up and down on a yearly basis. The Jags went from a 3 win nobody to and AFC title hopeful in a matter of season. The Packers went from Super Bowl contender to missing the playoffs thanks to an injury to Aaron Rodgers. This past year though felt extremely odd with a pretty high number of starters missing significant time to injury, and several players regressing in their play from previous seasons.
There are luckily a few tools to look at that can be insightful The first is Pythagorean wins. This is a basicac methodology comparing a teams points surrendered to their points scored. Its one of the better methods we have to draw to identify teams that might break out or will face a fall back.
The table above lists every team's projection. Teams like Pittsburgh and Philly both overperformed for their 13 wins, so it might be more realistic to have them lose a game or two. Liekwise, the Browns are pretty unlikely to go 0-16 again. Brett Lieblich has his own adjusted Pythagorean formula, where he removes garbage time points to help lessen some of the noise of blowouts. For my own predictions I do a similar thing to keep the program from over evaluating a loss.
The folks over at Footballoutsiders also have some research into defensive improvements year to year that coincides with third down efficicency. Third down efficiency itself is a useful tool, having a roughly .51 r^2 value to wins. Basically defeneses that perform well on 1st and second down but a re poor on third downs tend to improve the next year. From below, we can see teams like Jax, Ten, and Buf all might look forward to a bit of defensive improvement next year. Jacksonvilel will be tough to get much better, but the Titans and Bills both have a good shot to improve. New England's defense might also be one to look at a sleeper for a unit that could quickly be back to being near the top. On the flip side, Cin and Chi might expect a bit more regression this season. And if you're a a Bucs fan, this defense might get really bad this year.
On the program front, its classification mostly deals with team trends. I use a weighted average of a team's past 4 seasons to get some idea of who should be where. This is that prediction for the 2018 NFL season. I'm not certain that I like it as much, since its got a high variance and this upcoming season seems to have some huge questions for teams at the top of the charts, but its a starting point.
The NFL though sees quick turn arounds both up and down on a yearly basis. The Jags went from a 3 win nobody to and AFC title hopeful in a matter of season. The Packers went from Super Bowl contender to missing the playoffs thanks to an injury to Aaron Rodgers. This past year though felt extremely odd with a pretty high number of starters missing significant time to injury, and several players regressing in their play from previous seasons.
There are luckily a few tools to look at that can be insightful The first is Pythagorean wins. This is a basicac methodology comparing a teams points surrendered to their points scored. Its one of the better methods we have to draw to identify teams that might break out or will face a fall back.
The table above lists every team's projection. Teams like Pittsburgh and Philly both overperformed for their 13 wins, so it might be more realistic to have them lose a game or two. Liekwise, the Browns are pretty unlikely to go 0-16 again. Brett Lieblich has his own adjusted Pythagorean formula, where he removes garbage time points to help lessen some of the noise of blowouts. For my own predictions I do a similar thing to keep the program from over evaluating a loss.
The folks over at Footballoutsiders also have some research into defensive improvements year to year that coincides with third down efficicency. Third down efficiency itself is a useful tool, having a roughly .51 r^2 value to wins. Basically defeneses that perform well on 1st and second down but a re poor on third downs tend to improve the next year. From below, we can see teams like Jax, Ten, and Buf all might look forward to a bit of defensive improvement next year. Jacksonvilel will be tough to get much better, but the Titans and Bills both have a good shot to improve. New England's defense might also be one to look at a sleeper for a unit that could quickly be back to being near the top. On the flip side, Cin and Chi might expect a bit more regression this season. And if you're a a Bucs fan, this defense might get really bad this year.
On the program front, its classification mostly deals with team trends. I use a weighted average of a team's past 4 seasons to get some idea of who should be where. This is that prediction for the 2018 NFL season. I'm not certain that I like it as much, since its got a high variance and this upcoming season seems to have some huge questions for teams at the top of the charts, but its a starting point.
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