As Always the numbers give me some surprises. Bama, Boise and OSU having 11 wins as their most likely outcome with some dips to 9 and up to 11 is standard. But Duke to 10 wins? The program apparently finds Duke to be the most wildly unpredictable team, because they have roughly the same odds of winning 10 games (10.12%) as winning just 4 games (9.6%). Florida is up there as well, largely thanks to solid 5 year recruiting and a lot of returning production from last year.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
NCAA 2018 Predicted Win Totals
In the last volume of early rankings, I posted the predicted spots
for each team. That's a number based solely on returning production,
recruiting and a teams trend over the last 5 years. It gives a good
indication, but it doesn't do a great job of predicting where teams will
end up within their conference. This is due to some conferences being
much stronger overall and teams facing a tougher climb. Northwestern
might have the trajectory and recruiting to be a Top 25 team, but having
to play Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Michigan State is likely
enough to limit their chances of being a 9 win team.
As Always the numbers give me some surprises. Bama, Boise and OSU having 11 wins as their most likely outcome with some dips to 9 and up to 11 is standard. But Duke to 10 wins? The program apparently finds Duke to be the most wildly unpredictable team, because they have roughly the same odds of winning 10 games (10.12%) as winning just 4 games (9.6%). Florida is up there as well, largely thanks to solid 5 year recruiting and a lot of returning production from last year.
As Always the numbers give me some surprises. Bama, Boise and OSU having 11 wins as their most likely outcome with some dips to 9 and up to 11 is standard. But Duke to 10 wins? The program apparently finds Duke to be the most wildly unpredictable team, because they have roughly the same odds of winning 10 games (10.12%) as winning just 4 games (9.6%). Florida is up there as well, largely thanks to solid 5 year recruiting and a lot of returning production from last year.
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