Sweet 16 Charts, Data, and Win%

For the Sweet 16, I've prepared some matchup visualizations and my win percentages for each game.  So far this tournament I'm at about 75% correct going straight by the numbers. It's not overly impressive but that's why this tournament gets the ratings. The unexpected happens early and often. That number also is slightly better accounting for my east bracket. Which has zero teams besides the okies left. Everywhere else is in good shape to get my final 4 in and I think Gonzaga has a much better shot with UCLA than they did Iowa State .  

The following outcomes are produced by my linear ratings system. 

For each game the charts (and accompanying tables) cover the basic 4 Factors that Dean Oliver emphasized (Effective Field Goal Percentage, Rebounding, Turnovers, and getting to the free throw line), as well as offensive and defensive rating. 

Arizona vs Xavier

Expected Outcome: Arizona by 7

Arizona 79% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Arizona	53.58	16.71	34.14	47.12	44.32	21.10	22.32	36.30	116.01	86.38
Xavier	53.02	17.98	31.34	38.11	50.24	19.25	27.14	34.44	111.89	96.11

Duke vs Utah

Expected Outcome: Duke by 1

Duke 53% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Duke	56.86	16.76	37.44	40.16	47.36	18.75	30.05	25.01	122.03	96.13
Utah	55.59	17.84	31.29	42.85	42.71	18.25	28.11	34.50	113.05	90.57

Gonzaga vs UCLA

Expected Outcome: Gonzaga by 10

Gonzaga 88% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Gonzaga	58.44	16.27	33.87	39.13	43.59	17.62	28.62	31.64	119.44	93.43
UCLA	49.38	17.48	33.83	36.33	48.69	18.50	28.10	32.74	110.20	97.38

Kentucky vs West Virginia

Expected Outcome: Kentucky by 11

Kentucky 89% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Kentucky	51.78	16.45	40.42	43.79	39.71	21.82	31.64	31.59	119.73	85.82
West Virginia	46.58	18.75	40.88	40.43	52.62	28.17	31.06	55.94	111.25	95.42

Louisville vs NC State

Expected Outcome:  Louisville by 3

Louisville 66% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Louisville	47.81	17.76	35.15	38.81	43.45	21.76	30.94	34.66	105.88	89.36
North Carolina St.	49.57	16.19	34.13	36.21	45.52	15.44	30.41	34.10	111.47	98.20

Michigan St. vs Oklahoma

Expected Outcome: Oklahoma by 4

Oklahoma has a 67% to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Michigan St.	53.82	17.89	34.63	31.90	45.69	17.03	25.96	37.67	114.12	96.07
Oklahoma	49.41	17.66	30.90	32.66	43.72	20.17	31.49	28.92	109.32	88.91

North Carolina vs Wisconsin

Expected Outcome: Wisconsin by 4

Wisconsin 68% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
North Carolina	51.40	18.17	39.93	34.73	45.33	17.77	30.50	37.62	115.26	95.04
Wisconsin	54.57	12.42	31.94	35.58	46.70	16.71	23.73	21.06	124.70	94.26

Notre Dame vs Wichita St.

Expected Outcome: Notre Dame by 1

Notre Dame 55% chance to advance

Team	EFG%	TOV%	Free Throw Rate	Oreb%	DEFG%	TOV% Forced	Defensive Free Throw Rate	Dreb%	Ortg	Drtg
Notre Dame	58.58	14.44	28.08	37.13	48.06	17.38	31.60	23.34	122.23	99.67
Wichita St.	50.68	15.23	34.78	35.41	45.16	21.64	27.02	36.85	112.98	92.93