College football Over and Under Achievers So far

So, I really should post more.  However, life continues to get in the way, as work schedules and house moving have conspired to keeping my normally free weekends quite packed.  I have however carved out enough time to look through some of the programs ratings, and see how far some teams are from the preseason projected rating, for better or for worse.

At the Top:

1. Air Force
2. UNLV
3. MTSU
4. Boston College
5. Ole Miss'

Most of these teams are playing much better than the program had predicted them to be, which is most of them were supposed to be pretty dreadful instead of slightly above average.The Falcons have certainly looked like a very solid team in the first three weeks, crushing FCS Morgan State, and running away from San Jose State.  However, it was probably the absolute stuffing of Michigan State's run game that has brought the most shock, as Sparty managed just 1.8 yards per carry and suffered 8 tackles for loss to the Falcons surprisingly stingy defense.  UNLV is really a surprise on this list, but its mostly because the program expected them to be god awful, and they've only been miserable.  The small sample size is also probably helping them with that 80-8 win over Idaho State surpassing what they should have done against an FCS school.  Ole Miss is here largely for beating Alabama (predicted National Champion) handily.

Those at the bottom:

1.  Oregon
2. North Texas
3. Washington State
4. New Mexico State
5. Georgia State

 As Bill Connelly mentioned in his article, Oregon's defense has yet to stop anybody.  The offense is averaging an acceptable .443 points per play (only good enough for 45th in the nation), while ranking 108th by allowing .543.  North Texas has the distinction of being one of the five teams rated worse than an FCS school (on a neutral site, an FCS school would be favored), and is the second biggest underachiever by just a small margin.  Wazzu actually lost to an FCS school, at home this year, and Georgia State opened the season by dropping a game to FBS newcomer Charolotte.  That loss is really disappointing, since I had Georgia State going over 2.5 wins this year, and its going to be tough to get it now.