Wednesday, July 20, 2016

College Football Projected Top 25

So I've returned from the Rockie Mountains from a backpacking trip (which I'll be posting pictures from soon in another post) to finish up my pre season NCAAF ratings.

These ratings are obviously very preliminary, just to give me an idea typically of futures bets and projecting conference winners.  The formula has an r^2 value of .687 to a team's final rankings, which I think its pretty fantastic this far out from the end of the season.  There are a few surprises every year, and this year is no different.



1
Florida State
2
Louisiana State
3
Alabama
4
Georgia
5
Southern California
6
Baylor
7
UCLA
8
Tennessee
9
Oregon
10
Oklahoma
11
Miami(FL)
12
Auburn
13
Clemson
14
Ohio State
15
Oklahoma State
16
Washington
17
Mississippi
18
Louisville
19
Brigham Young
20
Stanford
21
Michigan
22
Mississippi State
23
Texas A&M
24
Pittsburgh
25
Arizona




The first thing that really stands out is Clemson sitting outside of the Top 10.  I believe that they will end up in the Playoff, but the program is concerned about the team without Watson helming the offense, and the senior class was much further behind some of their contemporary schools in terms of recruiting rankings.  The program also is not a big believer in Stanford.  The only knock it seems to have is the returning experience, so I'm expecting them to be much better off than the rankings give them. 

Of teams that I think its mysteriously high on, FSU has to top the list.  The 'Noles though have consistently been a good recruitier, and they return quite a bit of experience.  Im not super comfortable having them number 1, but theres a good chance they can knock off Clemson in the ACC.  As Bill Connely pointed out in his preview, Oregon will be much better if they can find some stable QB. 









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