College Football Playoff Win Chances

Running through all the playoff predictions, the program is liking the national pundits thoughts on Alabama running away with things again this year.  Its giving them a 64% chance to advance against Washington, and and an overall chance of wining the title at 48%.  The divergence seems to be with Ohio State and Clemson.  The program has not loved the Tigers at all this year, but it gives them just a 25.8% chance to beat the Buckeyes, and basically no chance to get past Alabama or Washington in the title game.  The odds of them winning it all this year are at just 5%, by far the lowest shot of any of the other contenders.  I really don't believe that, since the Tigers have a pretty solid Havoc Rate of 21.3%, just barely trailing the Crimson Tide.  I also believe in Deshaun Watson moreso than JT Barrett, who has struggled mightily this year with accuracy issues. Id give Clemson closer to a 40% chance of winning just from other numbers and the ol' eye test.  As the

NFL Predictions Week 17

The final week of the NFL season has plenty of action to determine seeding in the AFC (despite us knowing all the teams) and in the NFC the Redskins and Buccaneers are both still hoping to get in.  The program currently puts in the Lions as NFC Nrth Champs and the Redskins get in past the Packers.

NBA Power Rankings December 29th

With the Holidays, I got a little off schedule for getting these power rankibgs out.  In part though, its also because I was finishing setting up the prediction engine so it will be starting to do some weekly predictions on games, or a simple text output for daily games.

Strategic: Worth the hype?

In the coming release of fighters, one of the most hyped new Keywords is Strategic.  This ability allows the squadron with Strategic to pick an objective token within range one, and move that token to another space still within range 1.  This ability to will effectively allow a player to move a token just shy of distance 3 on the map.  With Corellian Conflict adding so many new objectives, this ability could be exceedingly powerful.  There are currently 2 Yellow Objectives that use Objective Tokens, and 3 Blue that use them.  This number is going to expand by 1 red, 2 blue and 3 yellow objectives will use moveable tokens (I’m not counting Nav Hazards, since you remove those tokens at the end of the round anyways).  This ability to manipulate the battlefield for your own use could pay huge dividends, especially since the two ships that will have it also have the Relay keyword (Relay 2 for the Lambda Shuttle, Relay 1 for the VCX-100).  It could mean an ever extending Jamming Barrier to help protect a vulnerable flank , or keeping a targeting beacon at a good distance away from your capital ships. 

With so many potential uses, are we going to see ubiquitous use of these two transports?  It’s possible, but the point cost for each squad is set at the fairly steep 15.  Neither has any inherent defense tokens, and will likely be a prime target for enemy squads to take down early to prevent such shenanigans.  It can also be highly situational.  Depending on initial set up, all the Tokens might be either out of distance that you can get to, or are already placed to your maximum benefit.  I’m also quite fearful of an opponent seeing that I have a couple of strategic squads and deciding they’re better off taking another objective that has no tokens to play with.  This could be especially bad for the VCX since its Relay 1 is handy, but not super useful for getting squad activations and its 3 blue dice is pretty average at its price point.  The Lambda is in a  slightly better position with Relay 2 to be able to get a couple of escorts into the fight if need be, and its 2 black anti squad dice are a bit better really since these are not the squads you want going after uniques with  scatter. 

Overall I don’t think Strategic will be the huge game changer some folks are thinking it will be, simply because you can’t guarantee objectives that use it will get picked and even then you might be able to only swing a couple of tokens in a given game with a couple of the Strategic squads in your list.  It will however give a chance for some real fun, especially in a list designed to take advantage of a very fluid battlefield.

 

NFL Week 16 Predictions

It looks to be a good week for Home Teams in the NFL this weekend.  The Broncos need a win on the Road in KC to keep any playoff hopes alive, but luckily they also need the Dolphins to stumble on the road in Buffalo.  I'll be interested to see if the Texans can get Tom Savage to produce again, but I doubt it overall.

NBA Power Rankings Dec 20th

A collective sigh of relief this week from NBA fans as a new CBA has been set out to ensure play will continue and we won't end up with lockouts and missed games any time soon.  A lot of rules changed that will help parity in the league, and will likely mean the end of the "Super Teams" (Thank God!).

This week in the power rankings the top continues to remain unchurned, as the top 7 teams remain the same and only two teams moved out of the top 10.  The Grizzlies are the team that fell the furthest in the Top 10, dropping 5 spots to number 14 overall.  They went 1-3 over the week, with the last two losses stemming from some major shooting issues.  Against the Jazz they posted an embarrassingly low 31.2% eFG%, as Marc Gasol went 4-22 from the field.  Taking their spot, the Milwaukee Bucks have played some pretty stifling defense this season.  They've posted the third best Opponent eFG%, and held the Bulls to just 65 points last Friday.

2016 Bowl Projections

Bowl season is such a  fantastic time in college football.  The games are fun for the players, and they feature teams that normally don't get any chance to play one another.  It also leads to outcomes that are severely out of line with season numbers.  Teams lose coaches, players aren't up for games, and being in a very strange locale just messes with some teams.  Even so, there's always a baseline for teams, and its always fun to predict what'll happen.

NFL Week 15 Predictions

The program has not been performing as well as it should be the last few weeks, and Ive been trying to figure out why.  No numbers are really standing out now to say why some teams are under performing their predictions, or some teams vastly over-performing theirs.  I like a lot of the picks this week, but giving Denver a nearly 60% chance to win at home I think is a bit much, especially if Brandon Marshall is hampered still.  I also don't see the Vikings rolling the Colts, nor the Giants able to hold off a very good Detroit passing attack.

NBA Power Rankings December 13th

The Warriors maintain their rank atop the NBA this week, in large part thanks to a blow out victory of the former number two team, the LA Clippers.  The rankings amongst the top teams have started to solidify a bit with not much churn going on.  At the bottom though we still see a lot of movement, with teams like the Knicks and Wizards basically swapping places at moving six spots apiece. 

Imperial Assault list thoughts

Playing several games this weekend of Imperial Assault has me pretty well convinced my standby RGC list is starting to get past its prime.  I played against a friend who was running a full unique Rebel list with   .   We played on a General Sorin map, where we needed to control the two terminals to gain victory points.  We could turn off the teminals by controlling the control room.  I made a mistake by not going directly to the control room and flipping off the terminals before my buddy could score a ton of VPs from it.  But that’s not the reason why I’m thinking I need to rethink the list a bit (and really, its re-thinking RGC).  The amount of figures now with some sort of Pierce ability has continued to grow in each expansion, and the Rebels now have access to 15 figure groups that have Pierce, Scum have 9, and the Imperials have 12.  Pierce is critically damaging to Imperial units though, as they mostly depend on Black Dice as their chosen defense cube.  That leaves little in the way of blocking surge abilities, and the pierce values now can really break through those defense dice rolls.  This was clearly demonstrated as my Royal Guard Champ melted in one turn of an Obi-Wan and Leia attack in which the Pierce from Obi gutted my three block roll.  It was then further tied in as Davith obliterated a storm trooper who had also rolled a full 3 blocks, and went on to wipe out another one that had a two block roll.  The Imperial faction luckily has a deployment card that deals with this exactly in Zillo Technique.  It counters Pierce in two ways, either by directly reducing Pierce value or by discarding command cards.  It looks like it’s going to be the backbone of most Imperial builds going forward.

With this in mind, planning for the release of Jabba’s Realm has me looking at a few builds.

Troopers (15/15/40)
=================
[1] Temporary Alliance
[9] Elite Wing Guard
[9] Elite Stormtrooper
[9] Elite Stormtrooper
[7] Captain Terro
[2] Imperial Officer
[1] Zillo Technique
[2] Imperial Officer

-------------------

[3] Grenadier
[3] New Orders
[2] Cavalry Charge
[2] Reinforcements
[2] Reinforcements
[0] Take Initiative
[0] Urgency
[0] Planning
[0] Rally
[0] Fleet Footed
[0] Element of Surprise
[0] Celebration
[1] Rank and File
[1] Hit and Run
[1] Roar

This variant finds a home for the sadly miscast Wing Guards.  The elite version wants to be sitting next to their trooper brethren, but the Keep the Peace ability needs them next to non-troopers.  Well, by conscripting them into your Imperial force they can find a home helping groups of Stormies deal back some damage while also getting themselves some re-rolls.  Captain Terro is super intriguing, and I think is going to be a lot of fun to play.  He has enough hit points to weather being focused on in one of the narrow hallways on the current tournament maps, and his Mounted ability with an officer nearby can get him to where he can Flamethrower that group of Jedi right away.

The above list has a lot of other variants that could be swapped in for the Wing Guard, like an eProbe Droid, rJet Troopers with targeting computer or a pair of eProbe Droids.

Blaise Probes (15/15/40)
======================
[6] Agent Blaise
[9] Elite Stormtrooper
[9] Elite Stormtrooper
[5] Elite Probe Droid
[2] Imperial Officer
[2] Imperial Officer
[1] Zillo Technique
[1] Cross Training
[5] Elite Probe Droid

-------------------

[3] Grenadier
[3] New Orders
[2] Comm Disruption
[2] Reinforcements
[2] Reinforcements
[1] Collect Intel
[1] Collect Intel
[1] Data Theft
[0] Disorient
[0] Element of Surprise
[0] Espionage Mastery
[0] Rally
[0] Planning
[0] Urgency
[0] Take Initiative

This is another list that I think has a lot of flexibility for accomplishing tasks and area control, along with enough hitting power that you can kill some of the tougher as well as getting your troopers hidden to make sure you get the surges you need.

The new era that we’re entering with high pierce values and many more melee options should actually play well into the Imperial’s strengths, as long as they’re packing Zillo technique to help mitigate the damage.  I’m excited to see the changes coming with the release of Jabba’s realm, and to see if some of the next maps to come into the tournament rotation will favor some more open space so Dewback Riders can really run wild.

NFL Predictions Week 14

NBA Power Rankings Dec 6th 2016

Another week of good NBA basketball is behind us, and now we've seen another big shift in the rankings for a pair of teams, and a lot of slight churning for the teams at the top and bottom.

The Warriors and Clippers both continue to play at a very high level, while the Cavs struggled until getting a win against the Raptors yesterday.  The Lakers are this teams big dropper, falling eight spots to end up near the bottom feeders.  Missing D'Angelo Russell is hurting them, as they are turning the ball over on 14% of their offensive posessions, rankng 26th in the league.  Even worse though, is their ability to guard opposing shooters, who are hitting a league best 53.3% effective field goal percentage against the Lakers.  The Bucks are the big riser, jumping nine spots up, who did theirs by posting a defensive efg% of just 48.3  Giannis Antetokounmpo is leading the charge with 1.4 defensive win shares, allowing a shooting percentage of just 44.1

NCAA Football Week 14

Going to do a few things different this week since we have so many Conference Championships.  I'll still have all the win percentages, but I want to look at the title games a little more in depth.

Pac-12: Colorado vs Washington

My CU Buffs have had, as Bill Connelly has pointed out a dream season.  The defense has been dominating, ranking 6th in efficiency in his stats,  along with ranking 7th in finishing drives, allowing just 3.44 points per maroon zone trip.  They'll  likely have to be near perfect against a Washington team that ranks second in efficiency, and is averaging 7.4 yards per play on offense.  Jake Browning was an early dark horse Heisman favorite, and he's continued that kind of play all season.  Completing 65% of his passes, along with averaging 9.6 yards per pass would likely have him in NYC as a finalist.  The Buffs are built though to match this strength, with a secondary that has allowed QBs to complete just 48.9% of passes, defensing 64 of them this year.  On offense the Buffs are going to depend on Sefo Lifau to come through again, and continue to be the solid runner and home run passing threat he has morphed into this season.  The Huskies secondary has not been as prolific at breaking up passes, but they give up few explosive plays with just 16 plays of more than 25 yards through the air all season.

SEC: Florida vs Alabama

This game really does not have a whole lot to say about it.  The Gators are a terrific defensive team, ranking 7th and 9th in Passign S/P+ and Rushing S/P+ respectively.  Four players have at least 50 tackles on this swarming defense, and they have an 18.2% havoc rate.  This all likely won't matter though, because the Alabama defense is better, and the Gators offense is a train wreck.  They average just 5.3 yards per play this season, posting just a 46% success rate on standard downs.  That is going to get the defense worn out, as Alabama has a defense to match the Gators, and an offense that is just so much better.

ACC: Clemson vs Virginia Tech

The Tigers have had a bit of a down season for what they had been expecting.  They haven't been bad, being able to score at least 30 points in nine games this season.  But in six games htis season theyve won by just a single score.  Deshaun Watson has not been as dominating as he was last year, but he's still an elite player, averaging 7.2 yards per play.  His turnovers cost the team in the game against Pitt, and nearly cost them the game against Louisville.  The Hokies might be able to take advantage of that, with an aggressive secondary that has 52 pass break ups and 12 picks on the year.  The real key though will be if Justin Fuentes offense can establish some consistency with the run (94th in S/P+) against a clemson front that has 104 tackles for loss.  If they cant, it will allow the Tigers to tee off on the passing game which might make an offense that isn't very explosive to begin with.

Big 12: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State

While not a true Title Game, Bedlam this year will determine the Big 12 champion.  The 'Pokes had been an afterthought following a tough luck loss to Central Michigan, but dominating performances against West Virginia, Pittsburgh and TCU have them playing a very meaningful game in early December.  Mason RUdolph has continued to grow as a player this year, being able to complete 64% of passes for 8 yards per attempt.  The passing game drives what they do, being able to post a 46% success rate on passing plays, driving a 50.3% success rate on standard downs.  This might not be enough though to keep up with a Sooners team that ranks third in efficiency. The run game with Mixon and Perine has a 50.2% success rate, with better than six yards per carry. 

B1G: Wisconsin vs Penn State

 A surprise matchup here with Penn State going from dead in the water to possible playoff contender in just a few weeks.  Saquon Barkley is an explosive back with 36 runs of at least 10 yards and 16 of them have been for more than 20.  The Nittany Lions though are not very good in the run game the rest of the time.  They are almost dead last in stuff rate, and post a successful down just 41.5% of the time.  It won't get better against a very tough Wisconsin front, that has allowed just 3.4 yards per attempt this year.  This game is likely going to be a defensive struggle, with the Badgers offense averging just 5.3 yards play and the passing game averaging just 7.5 per play. 

AAC: Navy vs Temple

The Navy offense the last several weeks has been a monster, gaining 501, 593, and 600 yards.  They went 23/32 on third downs in that time, and against SMU averaged over 10 yards per carry.  Its good for them though, because the defense had not been there in that span.  They aloowed over 8 yards per against East Carolina and Tulsa, while posting just three tackles for loss.  The Owls have not been as prolific on offense this seaosn, but theyve still averaged better than 6 yards per play and a defense that posts a 20% havoc rate.  This is lead by Haason Reddick, a 230 pound Senior that has 21.5 tackles for loss, with 9.5 sacks.

MWC: San Diego State vs Wyoming

Outside of Colorado, Wyoming might be this season's biggest surprise.  The Cowboys have a shot to upset the Aztecs largely thanks to an explosive passing game, with 32 plays of 25 yards or more and a better than 51% completion rate in the redzone.  The run defense though has struggled this year, and Donnel Pumphrey will make them pay.  He has 53 runs of more than 10 yards, and the offensive line is allowing a stuff on just 17% of their carries. 

CUSA: Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech

The Hilltoppers offense continues to be prolific, but the defense this year has been quietly excellent as well.  They rank 27th overall in Defensive S/P+, while ranking 34th in havoc rate.  Theyre giving up just 5 yards per play, and theyve defensed 59 passes this season.  The Bulldogs offense will test them though, coming in averaging 7.7 yards per play.  Ryan Higgins is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt, but is oming off a very rough game against Southern Miss where he threw 3 picks and didnt throw a touchdown since the first week of the season.

MAC: Ohio vs Western Michigan

Western Michigan is likely in line to be the Group of 5 representative in the New Years 6 bowls.  PJ Fleck has turned a team that was a mess into a powerful passing attack lead by Zach Terrell.  The senior is completing almost 72% of his passes, and has 30 touchdowns to just a single interception.  His favorite target is Corey Davis, a 6'3 senior that is averaging over 17 yards per catch, with 50 of his 83 catches gaining a first down.  The Bobcats are unlikely going to be able to keep up, with a success rate that ranks 124th in the nation. 

NFL Week 13 Predictions

A bit of a disappointing week for the program, mostly from a spread stand point.  The Dolphins struggled to put away the 49ers, the Pats were close against the Jets, and the Eagles seem to have lost their luster. This week we have a lot of home teams who should be able to pull out victories, while Denver should get back on track against the Jags.