NCAA Football Week 14

Going to do a few things different this week since we have so many Conference Championships.  I'll still have all the win percentages, but I want to look at the title games a little more in depth.

Pac-12: Colorado vs Washington

My CU Buffs have had, as Bill Connelly has pointed out a dream season.  The defense has been dominating, ranking 6th in efficiency in his stats,  along with ranking 7th in finishing drives, allowing just 3.44 points per maroon zone trip.  They'll  likely have to be near perfect against a Washington team that ranks second in efficiency, and is averaging 7.4 yards per play on offense.  Jake Browning was an early dark horse Heisman favorite, and he's continued that kind of play all season.  Completing 65% of his passes, along with averaging 9.6 yards per pass would likely have him in NYC as a finalist.  The Buffs are built though to match this strength, with a secondary that has allowed QBs to complete just 48.9% of passes, defensing 64 of them this year.  On offense the Buffs are going to depend on Sefo Lifau to come through again, and continue to be the solid runner and home run passing threat he has morphed into this season.  The Huskies secondary has not been as prolific at breaking up passes, but they give up few explosive plays with just 16 plays of more than 25 yards through the air all season.

SEC: Florida vs Alabama

This game really does not have a whole lot to say about it.  The Gators are a terrific defensive team, ranking 7th and 9th in Passign S/P+ and Rushing S/P+ respectively.  Four players have at least 50 tackles on this swarming defense, and they have an 18.2% havoc rate.  This all likely won't matter though, because the Alabama defense is better, and the Gators offense is a train wreck.  They average just 5.3 yards per play this season, posting just a 46% success rate on standard downs.  That is going to get the defense worn out, as Alabama has a defense to match the Gators, and an offense that is just so much better.

ACC: Clemson vs Virginia Tech

The Tigers have had a bit of a down season for what they had been expecting.  They haven't been bad, being able to score at least 30 points in nine games this season.  But in six games htis season theyve won by just a single score.  Deshaun Watson has not been as dominating as he was last year, but he's still an elite player, averaging 7.2 yards per play.  His turnovers cost the team in the game against Pitt, and nearly cost them the game against Louisville.  The Hokies might be able to take advantage of that, with an aggressive secondary that has 52 pass break ups and 12 picks on the year.  The real key though will be if Justin Fuentes offense can establish some consistency with the run (94th in S/P+) against a clemson front that has 104 tackles for loss.  If they cant, it will allow the Tigers to tee off on the passing game which might make an offense that isn't very explosive to begin with.

Big 12: Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State

While not a true Title Game, Bedlam this year will determine the Big 12 champion.  The 'Pokes had been an afterthought following a tough luck loss to Central Michigan, but dominating performances against West Virginia, Pittsburgh and TCU have them playing a very meaningful game in early December.  Mason RUdolph has continued to grow as a player this year, being able to complete 64% of passes for 8 yards per attempt.  The passing game drives what they do, being able to post a 46% success rate on passing plays, driving a 50.3% success rate on standard downs.  This might not be enough though to keep up with a Sooners team that ranks third in efficiency. The run game with Mixon and Perine has a 50.2% success rate, with better than six yards per carry. 

B1G: Wisconsin vs Penn State

 A surprise matchup here with Penn State going from dead in the water to possible playoff contender in just a few weeks.  Saquon Barkley is an explosive back with 36 runs of at least 10 yards and 16 of them have been for more than 20.  The Nittany Lions though are not very good in the run game the rest of the time.  They are almost dead last in stuff rate, and post a successful down just 41.5% of the time.  It won't get better against a very tough Wisconsin front, that has allowed just 3.4 yards per attempt this year.  This game is likely going to be a defensive struggle, with the Badgers offense averging just 5.3 yards play and the passing game averaging just 7.5 per play. 

AAC: Navy vs Temple

The Navy offense the last several weeks has been a monster, gaining 501, 593, and 600 yards.  They went 23/32 on third downs in that time, and against SMU averaged over 10 yards per carry.  Its good for them though, because the defense had not been there in that span.  They aloowed over 8 yards per against East Carolina and Tulsa, while posting just three tackles for loss.  The Owls have not been as prolific on offense this seaosn, but theyve still averaged better than 6 yards per play and a defense that posts a 20% havoc rate.  This is lead by Haason Reddick, a 230 pound Senior that has 21.5 tackles for loss, with 9.5 sacks.

MWC: San Diego State vs Wyoming

Outside of Colorado, Wyoming might be this season's biggest surprise.  The Cowboys have a shot to upset the Aztecs largely thanks to an explosive passing game, with 32 plays of 25 yards or more and a better than 51% completion rate in the redzone.  The run defense though has struggled this year, and Donnel Pumphrey will make them pay.  He has 53 runs of more than 10 yards, and the offensive line is allowing a stuff on just 17% of their carries. 

CUSA: Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech

The Hilltoppers offense continues to be prolific, but the defense this year has been quietly excellent as well.  They rank 27th overall in Defensive S/P+, while ranking 34th in havoc rate.  Theyre giving up just 5 yards per play, and theyve defensed 59 passes this season.  The Bulldogs offense will test them though, coming in averaging 7.7 yards per play.  Ryan Higgins is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt, but is oming off a very rough game against Southern Miss where he threw 3 picks and didnt throw a touchdown since the first week of the season.

MAC: Ohio vs Western Michigan

Western Michigan is likely in line to be the Group of 5 representative in the New Years 6 bowls.  PJ Fleck has turned a team that was a mess into a powerful passing attack lead by Zach Terrell.  The senior is completing almost 72% of his passes, and has 30 touchdowns to just a single interception.  His favorite target is Corey Davis, a 6'3 senior that is averaging over 17 yards per catch, with 50 of his 83 catches gaining a first down.  The Bobcats are unlikely going to be able to keep up, with a success rate that ranks 124th in the nation.