A few NBA playoff Scenarios in the West

The NBA's Western Confernce has several tight races for seeding from 3rd ll the way down to the last team in.  Lets take a little look at a few of them.

For 3 Seed:
The team's in the driver's seat right now for the 3rd seed are the Jazz and the Blazers.  IF either one wins both remaining games, they can lock up the the 3 right now.  The Blazer currently hold the spot, but the program likes the odds for the Jazz to be the Warriors and then the Blazers a bit better, giving them a 44% chance to the Blazers 19% chance to win it outright.  Noone else can catch up, thanks to tiebreaks falling all in favor of the Jazz and Blazers, and one of them guaranteed to win one more game.

For the 4 Seed:
Things get a bit trickier here, but the Jazz and Blazers both hold here pretty strongly.  The Spurs however can snag it, if they manage to win both games, the Blazers lose both.  They've got about an 11% chance to have all of that happen.  The Pelicans are alive at a 7% chance, needing the same scenario as the Spurs.  The Thunder can get it done if the Blazers win their games, the Jazz lose theirs, and the Spurs and Pelicans both lose at least once.  t comes out to about a 3% chance.

For the 5 Seed:
The Pelicans just need to win one game against the Spurs or the Clippers to lock up their 5 seed spot.  They've got a 51% chance to beat the Spurs, and a 52% chance to beat the Clippers so they should have it.  If they falter in both games, the Spurs need to beat them for that to happen.  So, give them a 24% chance to nab that spot.  The Thunder have no shot at this spot because they lose tie breaks to both the Pelicans and Spurs.

For 6,7,8:
This mess at the bottom is very close.  The Spurs are in control here, holding a tiebreak over everyone in this 6-9 spot.  Win 1 game and they are in at 6.  If they lose both games (10% chance) , they can drop to the 8th spot with a pair of wins by a couple of teams.  The Thunder are in the most danger, because they lose tiebreaks to both the T Wolves and Nuggets.  If they fall to the Heat tonight, and win against the Griz to end the season, the Nuggets or Wolves hop them by winning out.  The Nuggets need a lot of help to make it.  They have to win both games (program does give them a 27% chance to do so), or hope the Grizzlies and Heat can both beat the Thunder and get one win  (8% chance).