NBA Finals 2019 Predictions

We've now come to the end of the season, with just a handful of games left for the NBA.  It's been a wild ride, and we've gotten a fairly wild finale to go with it.  Most folks had the Warriors here, but their Eastern opponents were murkier to predict.  The Raptors though stormed through their last 4 games to get past the Bucks whom I thought were the strongest team in the East.  Here's how the two teams stack up over the last 4 games


Its important to look at these last 4 games because it might be closer to the version of the teams we actually see, the Warriors without KD and the Raptors hitting on all cylinders.  The program this year has not really liked the Warriors, thanks to their higher variability with injuries and some just overall lapses in play quality. They however rolled right through the team that had been best since the trade deadline (Houston), and waltzed through the Blazers without KD.  The Raptors struggled more through their series, needing 7 games to best the Sixers and looked a bit lost to start against Milwaukee as they've struggled with some of their own injuries.  However they rolled the last 4 games, even as Kawahi looked a little gimpy on the right quad. 

The program overall thinks the Raptors are a slightly worse, but more consistent team.  It will be interesting to see how the Warriors re-introduce KD if he's healthy, and if Kawahi Leonard can slow down  Draymond Green more than the Blazers front court could.  The Warriors in all likeliehood have the advantage here, but if KD struggles to work back in or any of Steph's nagging injuries flare up, the Raptors are one of the best teams and can capitalize on it. 

Toronto Series Wins: 57.7%
Golden State Series Wins: 42..%
Average Games Needed: 7

Book Review: The Gordian Knot

For the ReadICT book challenge this year, there was a category for Book from a Genre you don't read.  I'm not really a crime/ mystery reader, but while on vacation the ship's library had a few options so I picked up The Gordian Knot. 

The book overall is intriguing, but utterly unbelievable in the end.  The story follows Georg Polger, a German living in Southern France who has hit a rough patch in life.  His career as a translator has diminished, and the woman he moved with has left him.  However, he finds a bit of luck being hired by  a new company for a hefty salary, and soon stumbles into love with the company secretary.  His fortune only increases as he buys up another translation firm and wins a contract to translate for a big aero-defense project.  Georg however discovers this all has been a ruse, as Francoise (the secretary) has been stealing photos of the helicopter plans.  His whole bit of luck was simply a way to get the plans to him so they could be stolen.  Francoise leaves him, and he is threatened by the police because they are of course in the pocket of the forces conspiring against him.  He deduces through more luck that Francoise has left for the US, where she is really from.  He somehow manages to find her, and unravel the whole espionage mystery.  This, despite facing off against the KGB and other adversaries with decades of experience in the field. 

The story is a bit nonsensical, with many of the characters making choices that seem to only be to further the plot, and instances where Georg simply should not be able to move forward but does.  Its definitely a light read, but it is not a book I would recommend to folks to read beyond something to simply fill time. 

NBA Conference Finals Predictions 2019

The confernce semi-finals were al around very enjoyable.  Two series going to full seven games and another one to six had a lot of high drama moments.  Only the Bucks-Celtics series was a dud, thanks largely to what can be only called Celtics apathy after going down 2-1.  In the conference finals we now get what should be two very exciting series, if the numbers hold.  The Bucks are the favorite to advance, but face a Raptors team that had its star hit the biggest shot of the playoffs at the right time.  The Warriors looked off almost the whole series with the Rockets, and needed some epic performances to beat them without Kevin Durant.

Milwuakee Series Wins: 69.1%

Average Games Needed: 6

Portland Series Wins: 52.8%

Average Games Needed: 7

A few GoT thoughts before the episode

A few quick thoughts before the episode on where some characters are going to end up.

Bran: This week we get to see all the warging he did last week to set up this battle. My top choice is he did something to prompt Robert Baratheons death to set off Arya and Jons paths. He later merges with a tree

Sansa: Not much this week. But I think she sits on the throne at the end.

Tyrion: Follows Sansa and ends up married to her in the end.  Helps Bronn and Jaime to lead in a strike team to Kings landing via the maps he used to escape.

Daeny and Jon: Jon privately gives up his claim but Daeny goes mad queen at Kings Landing and Jon kills her. He heads back to Winterfell.

Arya: Two theories here. One I had right after this past episode, one after some Twitter stuff. First that Arya is killed trying trying to assassinate Cersei. Jaqan delivers the blow to make even the life she took that wasn't hers. The other theory came after a Tweet from the Night King actor and his power to turn folks at touch. Either he imprinted Arya or she's going to be a wight like Coldhands.

Brienne: Killed at Kings landing.

Pod: Killed at Kings landing.

Varys: He has to die. But I really don't know how. I thought it much be protecting the kids in the crypts but no.

Book Review:Storm Before the Storm

The end of the Roman Republic is one of the most studied periods of history  Not only was it the end of one era, it seems especially important to the minds of Americans as the Roman Republic had given the Founding Fathers so much inspiration.  However, while Caesar crossing the Rubicon was the moment it ended, the roots of that action stretched back generations in the republic.  Mike Duncan in a very accessible way traces several of these causes in Storm Before the Storm.

Duncan lays out that the Roman Republic was not just its mighty armies and impressive trade prowess, but a set of customs and unwritten rules.  The rules governed how political actors governed and how generals conducted themselves n the field.  However, as different political factions struggled for supremacy they slowly began breaking these rules to get their projects and legislation passed.  The book begins with the Gracchi brothers and their attempts at land reform.  Their attempts broke major rules of decorum, and ended with violence as opposition forces took these breaches as a reason to rise up and end the Gracchi lives.  The book then traces other personalities over several generations, as Rome found huge riches and fought several invasion attempts.  Each crisis brought more suspension of rules and traditions, as actors found it expedient to break tradition and pander to lower classes for votes and further violence.  This culminated itself in the question of Citizenship for non-Roman Italians, and an open civil war.  This crisis gave way for men like Sulla and Gaius Marius to turn loyal troops into personal armies.  This moment of Sulla marching through Italy and seizing power gave the blueprint for Julius Caesar to do so years later.  The main theme throughout the book is the continuous decay of rules to constrain actors that brings about the possibility for the end of the republic.  That each event on its own might not have done it, but that each event allowed the next bending of the rule to be easier, and be done much more quickly.

This book covers a lot of territory, and towards the end starts to hurry things along a bit too much.  Overall though it is a great overview of a pivotal moment in world history.

Broncos Player Superlatives Predictions

I've seen this game going around on twitter, so I figured I'd jump in and give some explanations to my picks.

Breakout guy:Shelby Harris
Some might think Harri broke out last year.  But he only played on 36% of the defensive snaps last year, and this year as the presumptive starter at NT he should get a much bigger opportunity to blossom.  Harris should be able to greatly improve his 1.5 sacks from a year ago and will make a big difference in generating pressure up the middle to help Von and Chubb.

Comeback kid: Royce Freeman
Royce Freeman was looking like the presumptive starter last year until Phillip Lindsay took the job and held it all season.  Freeman was hobbled by injuries and some struggles in pass blocking assignments that limited his snaps on the field.  Freeman should get another chance to earn some plays, as the Shannahan offense has always been open to multiple rushers earning big yards.

Rising Star: Phillip Lindsay
As if there was any question of who could go here.  Lindsay showed what made him one of the best running backs in Colorado history.  With an offensive scheme that actually works, this year could be even better.

Don't forget about: Will Parks/Justin Simmons 
The young Safety tandem has been a bit overlooked this offseason, but they're both heading into the last year of their contracts.   Even if Kareem Jackson moves to a safety spot,  Will Parks was a difference make last year in his back up role (Pittsburgh game anyone?).  Justin Simmons struggled some especially early last season in his first year as a starter, but his play this year will be crucial for a secondary that looks to rebound.

Needs to rebound: Garrett Bolles
Bolles play so far has been uneven in his first two years in the league.  Too many penalties and footwork that gets sloppy.  But when his game is on as it was during a streak last season, you can see why he was a 1st round pick.  His play dipped as the season ended, but with Mike Munchak now working to improve his technique its time for him to bounce back.

Darkhorse MVP:  Courtland Sutton 
In 2014, Joe Flacco played in a similar system to what we're expecting from Rich Scangarello this year.  He put up career numbers that year, and if he can come close to those numbers, Sutton will be the breakout star.  Steve and Torrey Smith combined for 226 targets, with 1832 yards.  Sutton showed a lot of promise last year, and I believe this offensive system will give a chance to be a big breakout star.  If he can provide a constant threat to defenses, his ability to break huge plays can open up things for the run game, as well as keep the offense from grinding to a halt as teams stack the box.

Under the Radar: Josey Jewell
The whole pre-draft process was talk about how Vic Fangio needed a better inside linebacker.  Denver added Justin Hollins, who is much more of an EDGE than ILB.  Jewell had his moments of misplay last year, but overall stepping into a mess of a defense and playing as well as he did speaks volumes to the solid player he is.  He fits much better in Fangio's system that emphasizes zone for Linebackers over man coverage, and he is a sure tackler.