Sunday, August 16, 2015

Yetisburg

 Sometimes you see a game at the store and the name just begs you to buy it.  That game a couple weeks ago was Yetisburg, a civil war combat game with a fantasy setting twist.  The Union and the Confederacy square off with the aid of melee combat specialist Yetis and long range artillery Mastodons.  

Each player has access to identical armies, each with infantry and cavalry (regular and elite troopers, the elite being able to withstand more damage before needing to head to the hospital), Generals, Mastodons and Yetis.  Game play is pretty straightforward.  Each player has 5 columns of troops, 3 rows deep.  The first and second rows, the front and reserve lines, are face up and can make attacks or take advantage of abilities.  The third row is the supply line, face down cards that will be used to replenish the first two rows when when those cards are killed in combat.  Player's take turns attacking by playing a card from their hand, and ordering all troops of that card type to attack.  Results of the attack are created randomly, by drawing a meat token and flipping it over to see what direction the shot went, and what the range of the shot is.  Damage is dealt by counting the number of rows in the direction listed, according to the units ability. Regular troops all deal one damage while yetis and mastodons deal damage equal to the range. Killed troops are sent to the discard pile, and lines are replenished.  This goes back and forth until both players have either exhausted all their troops or both players pass their turn to attack. After that, players can use their Generals in the field to refresh troops for the next turn, swap positions, or bring troops back from the discard pile into the fight. The game continues on until someone cannot reinforce their lines from the supply line, or when drawing cards for their hand cant draw anymore.  

 Yeti combat is a little different from regular troops. They move to a row in between the players front lines called the trench.  Yetis crash through their own lines, killing friendly troops to get into the trench, and if their is an opposing Yeti in the trench for their column, they will knock them back to the opponents front lien, killing any troops that are there.  If a Yeti gets hit by friendly fire, they swap sides, going under control of your opponent until they get hit again.  Yetis only deal damage to the units directly next to them.
My game group has played this game now a few times and has come to a pretty much unanimous consensus: The game is a a fun, quickly paced short game, but the randomness doesn't leave you really wanting to play it again and again.  The combat mechanic makes it extremely likely you're going to on more than one occasion shoot your own troops, especially those at the left and right of them.  If there was a way to somehow get a little more strategic control of how units were shooting the game would be a bit better for replay value, especially since the artwork on the cards is so fantastic.

Friday, June 5, 2015

The one thing Kavitha Davidson gets right

Normally, I find Bloomberg's top sports writer pretty awful.  Kavitha doesn't dwell on the actual games, or the stories inside them that focus on the bright side of sports.  No, she only pontificates on how misogynist the players are, how unfair the leagues treat the unions, or whatever other progressive agenda needs to be shown the limelight to Bloomberg's readers.  However, I do think she takes the right stance on Qatar's bid for the 2022 World Cup to be re-opened in the wake of the FIFA bribery arrests.  

Many agree that if FIFA is serious about transparency and reform, its next president must take a stand against a country that jails journalists reporting on World Cup construction abuses and its kafala system of labor, which amounts to modern-day slavery. Too bad that many of the front-runners to succeed Blatter were just as supportive of Qatar's bid.
I also agree with her that its likely too late to do anything about the Russian bid, even if they find some serious stuff there.  The logistics just won't allow it, without even taking into regard the geo-political ramifications of a US lead investigation removing a symbolic games from the Russians.  Qatar poses its own issues, but with the years to be able to build the case, and the overall issues with safety, weather, and the whole slave labor issue the case should easily be made to revoke their hosting.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

NBA Finals Charts, and Winners

So we have reached the end of the road here for the NBA season.  The Cavs were able to overcome their slow start and other issues of melding a team together to surge past a banged up Eastern Conference favorite Hawks.  Can they get past the now battle tested Warriors, who have made all the right adjustments in their series to win?  The Program has a resounding no, giving the Cavs under 20% chance to win the series.  I can't neccessairliy disagree.  The Warriors will play the best defense the Cavs have seen, and are far deeper.  They also have the star power to counteract Lebron having his way. 



Golden State vs Cleveland
Warriors Chance to win at Home: 71.8%
Cavs Chance to win at Home: 41.6%
Warriors win series 82.3% of the time
Most commonly in 5 games



Team
EFG%
Tov%
FT Rate
OReb
DEFG%
DTov%
D-FT Rate
DReb
ORtg
DRtg
Pace
Cleveland Cavaliers
52
13.4
21.6
26.8
50.2
12.6
17.7
74.7
111.1
106.3
92.3
Golden State Warriors
54
13.1
18.4
24.1
47
14.3
21.7
74.5
111.6
101.4
98.3

Sunday, May 17, 2015

NBA Conference Charts and Predictions

The semifinals for each conference provided some pretty entertaining basketball.  The Warriors and Grizzlies played a truly gritty series, but the Griz didnt have the talent to counter one of the best coaching moves we've seen in the last 15 years from an NBA coach.  The Cavs were able to advance despite some vintage Derrick Rose moments, and did so in part because Lebron showed why a lot of coaches don't really matter in the modern NBA.  The Hawks looked DOA, but have continued to roll on (if John Wall and Beasley are healthy this series probably goes 7, and the Hawks might have been headed home).

For the program, it correctly picked three of the four series.  And it did also have the Clips and Rockets with the most competitive series.  On a game to game basis the program struggles a bit in the playoffs, just because it uses seasonal data.  I'm wondering if there needs to be a real weighting for the previous round/ games in this series to improve it.



Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Hawks Win Chance at home: 57.7%
Cavaliers Win Chance at home: 56.8%
Cavaliers win 50.7% of the time
Most commonly in 7 games




Team EFG% TOV% FTRate OReb DEFG% DTOV% D FTRate DReb ORtg DRtg Pace
Atlanta Hawks 52.7 13.5 20.1 21.4 49.2 14.9 18.5 73.4 108.9 103.1 93.9
Cleveland Cavaliers 52 13.4 21.6 26.8 50.2 12.6 17.7 74.7 111.1 106.3 92.3




Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets
Warriors Win Chance at home: 74.9%
Rockets Win Chance at home: 38.2%
Warriors win 83.7% of the time
Most commonly in 5 games


Team EFG% TOV% FTRate OReb DEFG% DTOV% D FTRate DReb ORtg DRtg Pace
Golden State Warriors 54 13.1 18.4 24.1 47 14.3 21.7 74.5 111.6 101.4 98.3
Houston Rockets 51.2 15 22.3 26.8 48.6 14.6 20.8 72.9 107 103.4 96.5



In summation, it looks like we will be seeing the Warriors in the finals, but its basically a complete toss up with the Cavs and Hawks.  If Kyrie Irving cant go, I think its definitely the Hawks stepping forward.

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Los Links May 7th

Is there anybody out there

Dreamliners problems remain a nightmare

1690s problems

Sunday, May 3, 2015

NBA Regular Season Ratings Charts

I always love playing around with stuff in R, especially the plotting.  I'm currently working on a way to use R Charts and incorporate some interactivity in the future, but for now here's how each team stacked up in terms of ratings during the season.

Its amazing how far ahead the Warriors were all season long.  They started out at the top and just held on there all season long.  You can also see the Mavs, and Raptors downward trend all season long.  The team I'm going to watch really closely this off season is the Jazz.  Their trend all season was just progressively getting better, and they're a team with a good young core.


Saturday, May 2, 2015

NBA 2nd Round Charts and Series Predictions

Well, the NBA playoffs march on, with only a few real surprises in the first round.  The Raptors again have had a disappointing exit from the post season, and there will certainly be some questions after the utter meltdown by Kyle Lowry in their sweep at the hands of the Wizards.  Lowry shot at less than 30% in the series as the Raptors struggled to get into an offensive rhythm, and allowed the Wizards to eat up the Raptors defense.

The program's biggest whiff was the Blazers in their series.  Some elements of that team were a little nicked up, but for the most part the Blazers looked completely incompetent against the Grizzlies.  Aaron Afflalo, a favorite of mine from his days in a Nuggets uniform was plain awful in his limited action, while the rest of the offense just couldn't find its stroke.

The rest went to chalk, with most of the west being pretty competitive (including the Warriors and Pelicans being better than expected), and the East being sweeps.  So, onto the 2nd Round.





Atlanta vs Washington
 Hawks Win Chance at Home: 68.7%
Wizards Win Chance at Home: 44.5%
Hawks win: 73.4% of the time
Most Commonly in 6 Games

Team
EFG%
TOV%
FTRate
OReb
DEFG%
D
TOV%
D
FTRate
DReb
ORtg
DRtg
Pace
Atlanta Hawks
52.7
13.5
20.1
21.4
49.2
14.9
18.5
73.4
108.9
103.1
93.9
Washington Wizards
49.9
14
19.2
24.9
48.1
12.9
21
77.3
103.7
103
93.7


Chicago vs Cleveland
Bulls Win Chance at Home: 51.6%
Cavs Win Chance at Home: 60.4%
Cavs Win series:58% of the time
Most Commonly in 6 games

Team
EFG%
TOV%
FTRate
OReb
DEFG%
D
TOV%
D
FTRate
DReb
ORtg
DRtg
Pace
Chicago Bulls
48.9
12.9
23.8
27
47.3
11.3
18.2
74.4
107.5
104.3
92.8
Cleveland Cavaliers
52
13.4
21.6
26.8
50.2
12.6
17.7
74.7
111.1
106.3
92.3


Los Angeles vs Houston
 Clippers Win Chance at Home: 64.7%
Rockets Win Chance at Home: 49.3%
Clippers Win series: 68.5% of the time
Most Commonly in 7 games





Team
EFG%
TOV%
FTRate
OReb
DEFG%
D
TOV%
D
FTRate
DReb
ORtg
DRtg
Pace
Los Angeles Clippers
53.3
11.6
21.5
22.8
49.3
13.2
23.1
75.7
112.4
105.5
94.7
Houston Rockets
51.2
15
22.3
26.8
48.6
14.6
20.8
72.9
107
103.4
96.5

Golden State vs Memphis
 Warriors Win Chance at Home: 73.4%
Pelicans Win Chance at Home: 38.7%
Warriors Win series: 82.5% of the time
Most Commonly in 5 games


Team
EFG%
TOV%
FTRate
OReb
DEFG%
D
TOV%
D
FTRate
DReb
ORtg
DRtg
Pace
Golden State Warriors
54
13.1
18.4
24.1
47
14.3
21.7
74.5
111.6
101.4
98.3
Memphis Grizzlies
48.9
12.6
21.4
24.7
49.2
14.5
18.3
75.3
105.7
102.2
92


To recap, The Warriors should be able to move through their series without much issue (especially if Andrew Bogut continues to play well).  The Clippers should advance, but watch Chris Paul's health heading forward.  I'm not certain I like the Hawks prediction so much, they looked just average against the Nets, and the Wizards played very well against Toronto.