Saturday, March 18, 2017

Armada Campiagn Narrative Rounds 5 and 6

Task Force Zekkog moved slowly through the Sabhering Asteroid Belt, searching for the Rebel base that existed therein.  Tiaan's ships had been dispatched to try and root out the intrusion, since the ISB had reported an extensive ship works there.  Striking this resource rich area would certainly go a long way to reducing the rebel threat in sector, and allowing the Imperial Navy to drive them out.  Tiaan's ships had spread out to navigate the dense set of asteroids and to try to detect the rebel presence better.  His sensor teams were straining with the amount of metal and background radiation in the belt to find anything that could be a base.
Several hours later, Tiaan was awakened by the chirp of his comm system.  "Sir, we've got the Rebel base ahead.  Their defense fleet is moving out to intercept us."  Tiaan replied "On my way.  Order fighters launched, and prepare the grav shift to clear the asteroids for us."  Moments later Tiaan was on Unforgiving's bridge, ordering his forces into some semblance of a firing line.  The Rebel fleet and the asteroids had already prevented him from being able to cross the T and bring his best guns to bear and keep the Rebel broadsides from firing into his ships. So Tiaan decided to try and catch the enemy in the rear, shifting Khopesh and Obedience from their positions to his right into a more trailing position.  He had to be conservative with his fighters here, because the base was able to provide more ample fighter coverage than the opposing fleet could typically. The rebels knew this and their fighters dove in quickly as the broadsides began to hit the spread out Imperials ships. The Imperial fighters got the better of these rebel pilots early on despite some losses. Obedience though was getting battered by successive waves of ship fire. It had been positioned poorly to start the battle and was taking the brunt of fire from an MC 80 cruiser. The firing teams on board Obedience had decided to first destroy a set of support vessels that were coordinating the enemy fighters. Tiaan could see the wisdom but feared that not doing enough damage to the  big flagship.  The rebel transports were obliterated by the carrier's turbolasers.
 
As if on cue though, the big rebel flagship let loose a debilitating line of fire into obedience, as the older carrier tried to also avoid the large asteroids that had ambled into its path. The combination turned deadly as one of the larger asteroids struck shielding conduits. Unforgiving's engineering crews began extending shields to the carrier to help overcome the damage. Due to positioning Obedience was still taking a majority of fire.  Its shield capacitor had become misaligned, so a majority of the ship had become vulnerable to fire.

The CR90 that had been trailing its flag ship had maneuvered into a perfect position to add fire to the now crippled Obedience.  The targeting scramblers onboard Unforgiving weren't going to be able to protect it from that fire at that range.  Tiaan feared he'd lose the carrier and perhaps the tide of battle would turn.  But, in front of him he saw a flash of steel as Khopesh sped across into the teeth of the Corvettes fire, shielding Obedience.  That stroke of brilliance would have to be rewarded Tiaan thought to himself.  Unforgiving was able to add its fire into the corvette and drive it away from the carrier, as the Imperial fighters continued to best their rebel counterparts.  With the extra time, the engineering crews had been able to get the shield capacitor back into working order.  The rebel commander must have suspected the battle was turning against him, because they broke off their engagement and scattered themselves into the Asteroid belt.


Epilogue

The Imperial forces were now firmly in control of the area, and set about decomissiong the Rebel base.  The Rebels had left scant bits of Intel, or usable parts, but the docks there allowed Obedience to get repaired quickly.  The rebel fleet poked around their former base, probing the Imperials for the next few weeks.  But with their fighter losses in the previous battle, and Unforgiving's grav shift throwing debris and rocks into the mix, forced them to withdraw.  Tiaan heard through the holonet news that Motti had won a resounding victory against another rebel fleet above Correlia, and then had pursed them to Corfai where has able to dislodge them.

With these victories, it appeared as if the rebel threat in the sector had been pacified, and that Tiaan would be moving on to a special assignment as a reward for his work here.  A star base command that would potentially change the universe and end this horrid rebellion.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

NBA Power Rankings March 15th


Another wee in the NBA, and we're starting to see some changes in our season long power rankings.  The middle tier is seeing a lot of churning, and the Warriors, while holding the top spot still are now falling in terms of their value.  The Spurs and Rockets are both now within striking distance.  In the East it remains the Cavs as the favorite.


In our more recent rankings we see the teams that are continuing to play well.  The Cavs have hit a nice stride, as have the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are now 2.5 games ahead of the Blazers for the 8th seed.  The biggest story here is really just how fr the Warriors have dipped without Kevin Durant.  A lot of it is Steph Curry struggling, but we'll see how long that keeps up.

Monday, March 13, 2017

NCAA Mens Charts: Championship Predictions

Our previous charting showed us that the top seeds have the best chance of getting into the FInal Four.  Its why they're the top seeds.   For each of them though, there's roughly even odds to win the title.  Villanova leads the pack with a full nearly 30% chance if they reach the Final Four.  This of course means just a bit over 9% overall, the best odds in the tournament. 




NCAA Men's Charts: Chances to reach the FInal 4

Its back to the Spring, which means that we're back to the best annual ritual.  The tournament is an extreme test of one off chances and craziness.  Teams that have no right being in the same gym as their opponents get hot and shoot lights out to knock out better teams.  We can try our bets to account for this, but its an exercise in futility to express anything in terms of absolute certainty.  Having said that, there's some pretty good odds that Villanova, KU, Kentucky and Gonzaga will be in the Final 4. 





Wednesday, March 8, 2017

NBA Power Rankings March 8th


Lots of moving parts in the NBA the past couple of weeks, with Kevin Durants injury and now Andrew Bogut going down for the Cavs.  Golden State took a sizable step back in their actual rating, but remain far ahead of the pack. 


Interestingly, if we look a how teams have been playing since the start of February, we notice which teams have been hot lately. This shouldn't be read into too much yet, as it provides data that can be exceptionally skewed by playing a couple of games against lesser opponents.  It is amazing to see though the Thunder struggle so much.  I really thought adding McDermott as a solid wing shooter would help, but he's struggled to get into the flow with just a 44% True Shooting rate since moving to OKC.  It also does show though how much the Clippers have struggled with Chris Paul's injury. 

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

NBA Power Rankings Macrh 1st

We're back after a week off from the power rankings due to the All star break.  No real changes this week, just too few games to push the needle.  However, going forward we'll see how some teams that made moves at the deadline do.  The Thunder I think are the most interesting case, adding a pair of good complimentary players.  The Cavs got much stronger with Deron Williams and Andrew Bogut in the East.  The Warriors that were so far ahead might take a big step back to the pack if Kevin Durant cannot overcome his MCL sprain.



Monday, February 27, 2017

Colin Cowherd is wrong about Russel Westbrook

I listen to Colin's podcast most days of the week while I'm at work.  He's got a lot of insight, and does a good job with getting intriguing guests.  But on today's show Colin opined about how bad Russel Westbrook has been this year.  His shooting percentage is down to just 42%, and Colin asked why hasn't Russ been able to get a guy like Victor Oladipo going?  Colin then compared Westbrook and John Wall, a player Cowherd has been critical of (and myself as well) for years.  This year though,John is now shooting at 45%, and is seeing about a half an assist more per game.  The issue is though, continuing to use these traditional stats just doesn't do a good job of capturing what is going on in OKC. 

We'll start with a much better measure of shooting ability, in True Shooting.  Why is True Shooting better?  It accounts for the other valuable things that a player does, like drawing fouls (and making free throws) and shooting threes.  Russ has seen a slight dip in his numbers there, but its down from 54.2% to 53.2%.  This largely due to a much increased amount of threes, reflecting the fact that the Thunder really have lacked anyone that has that sort of range.  Alex Abrines, Jerami Grant and Victor Oladipo are the only other real threats on the team (Pre-trade deadline) players that you'd ask to shoot outside as well.  Abrines is a short minutes player, Grant is a liability at the foul line so his outside opportunities are limited as players know they can stay on him there, and Oladipo just isn't a great shooter.  His True Shooting rate has stayed the same this year despite no longer drawing a team's best defender.Westbrook is now also drawing fouls at a better rate, by about 5%.  This helps to open things up as it forces team's into holding back defensively.  Now what about the charge of Russ not getting his teammates involved more?  Well, he's now hitting a career high in assist rate, so his teammates are using his passing abilities to hit more shots.  It will also be interesting to see now with Taj Gibson and Doug Mcdermott, two good role players coming in to see if they can help take some of the offensive pressure off Westbrook.

The comparison between Wall and Westbrook shows the pair are both playing at a high level.  Westbrook has an *5 lead in assist rate, a nearly 1% lead in turnover rate, and basically identical True Shooting rates.  Wall also lags behind in free throw rate, by about 9%.  This doesn't take anything away from Wall, who is having a very good season.  It's just to state that Westbrook is doing some very impressive things, and that Colin is not taking everything into account.