NCAA Final 4 charting

We've come to the Final Four, and its certainly not the group we had been expecting.  Gonzaga and North Carolina most folks could have seen entering this realm, but Oregon was a long shot especially after losing Chris Boucher in the PAC12 tournament.  Broucher was the rim protector the Ducks needed, recording a 12% block rate.  Even more surprising though is the Gamecocks of South Carolina.  This is a team that ranks 299th by Ken Pomeroy's ratings for effective field goal percentage, and commits a ton of fouls (45.3 rate of Free throws attempted to field goals attempted).  Their lock down defense though forced Baylor to go 14-43 from two point range in this tournament.

Gonzaga vs South Carolina

Gonzaga Wins by 7
Gonzaga Wins 78% of matchups

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	DoReb%	dFTRate	ORtg	DRtg
Gonzaga	57.3	16	30.3	38.6	41.6	17.7	25.3	25.6	119.6	87.3
South Carolina	47.1	18.6	34	39.9	45.5	24.5	31.3	46.3	107.5	88.8

While South Carolina has lived by their ability to frustrate shooters, Gonzaga has been able to do the same but also can also light up a scoreboard.   South Carolina has run on great defense and some timely scoring, but its unlikely to hold on here.

North Carolina vs Oregon

North Carolina Wins by1
North Carolina Wins 51% of matchups

 

Team	EFg%	Tov%	OReb%	FTRate	dEFg%	dTov%	DoReb%	dFTRate	ORtg	DRtg
North Carolina	52.1	16.5	42.2	33.3	48.4	18.9	24.7	30.7	121.2	93.9
Oregon	55.8	17.1	32.9	34.9	46.6	19.8	29.9	26.2	118.8	94.8

 This game should be a tight one.  Oregon is a bit more efficient in their shooting (on both ends), but UNC is a bit more efficient on a per possession basis.  Its a toss up, but I do think the Tar Heels can get it done, since they should be better on the boards without Boucher there and allow Kennedy Meeks inside to really do some damage.