Friday, April 27, 2018

NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Matchups

I'll go ahead and edit this post later, but with the Pelicans and Warriors kicking off tomorrow, I wanted to get them done.  And since every other series looks like it could go a little bit further, theres no reason not to start looking at these two teams.

-EDIT: Updated with all of the remaining series, including the fact that the Rockets won yesterday.  Sorry I didnt get this up then, but I misread the schedule and thought they were playing the late night game.


Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans:
Pelicans win Series 53.2% of the time in 7 games 


The program did not do a great job with these teas in the first round.  The Warriors looked much more energized then they had the waning weeks of the season, and the Spurs had no 2nd half answers without Leonard in the line up.  The Pelicans flat out dominated their series, posting the best TS rate of anyone in the first round, coming in at 61%.  Interestingly, the Warriors were the much better team on the boards, snagging 80% of their defensive rebounds, which could become a key in this series.  We should also see Steph back.  However, the program can't forget that the Warriors have been hobbled, and noone else should either.  The Pelicans have run a lot of tempo in these playoffs, Neither team has been very good at stopping opposing players in the paint, ranking 25th and 26th.  The Pelicans though all season have reliably gone to Anthony Davis there to score a lot of points.   It wouldn't surpise me if this series ended up going 7 games, but I'm a little more sure on the Warriors with Steph than the Pelicans.



Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets:
Rockets win Series 71.2% of the time in 5 games 


This was probably going to be my highlight matchup of these playoffs but with Ricky Rubio getting his hamstring pulled in the finale against the Thunder, this series might end up much more shallow.  The Jazz have been one of the best defensive teams all season, posting the second best defensive rating this season at 101.6.  The Rockets had been the leagues second most efficient offense, 112.1 rating to go with a 59% TS rate. This model does include the fact that the Rockets already won game 1, but the Jazz's defense has been so good and their offense fairly efficient so the program still sees some hope for them.



Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers:
Raptors win Series 82.5% of the time in 5 games 


The Cavs were able to finally get past the Pacers in a taught 7 game series, in which if just a few shots fell against them the columns would already be flowing about Lebron James' next stop would be.  James though was super man in this series, with a 65.5% TS rate, 15% rebound rate, and a league leading 26.8 PIE for players that are starters in the playoffs.  The rest of the starters have been basically non-existent, especially Kevin Love and JR Smith.  Against a Raptors squad that has the second best offensive efficiency so far in the playoffs and a middle ground defensive efficiency, this wont cut it.  But Lebron is still amazing, so he might be able to pull it off.  He's been ridden hard already though, and with Fred Van Fleet over his injury, the Raptors second unit is going to apply a lot of pressure.



Boston Celtics vs New Philadelphia 76ers:
76ers win Series 81.4% of the time in 5 games 
The Sixers are looking like the class of the East currently, dispatching the Heat in impressive fashion (3 of 4 wins by double digit points) and with the best Net Rating of teams in the east through the opening round.  They last played a week ago, so there could be some rust.  But the Celtics starters have now played the most minutes of any starting unit besides the now defeated Pacers and Jazz (who have an extra game done now).  Al Horford so far has carried the load for the Celtics, posting a 15.4 PIE and a 66.9% TS rate, but his defensive efficiency has been pretty bad, at 107.3).  He'll have his hands full with the Sixers helping to guard Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.  JJ Reddick has also been hot so far, hitting 56% of his threes so far.  The Sixers play with a lot of pace as well, so this series could be short if the Celtics have to keep their starters in.

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