Checking in on the NBA playoffs, the program so far is holding strong. The Warriors and Cavs have really taken care of business, while most other series that were supposed to be tighter have been (I'll wait for that game to get through both games beofre I pass my judgment on why the Blazer). The only one so far that I've been shocked by is the Raptors and Wizards. Simulations that I'd run had the Raptors with a 64% home win chance in each game (I won't update the simulations inputs until after both sets of home games), so finding themselves down 0-2 had only a roughly 13% chance of happening.
What's been the difference maker? In part, its that the Raptors aren't getting to the line as often as they normally did during the regular season. Theyre drawing a free throw attempt on only 18% of their field goals, down about 7% from the regular season. This has meant leaving around 15 points a game off the scoreboard. This inability to draw fouls has also hurt their overall effective field goal percentage. They also have struggled to hit long shots, as the Wizards have done a good job of protecting the perimeter. During the season, the Raptors made 35% of htier three point attempts. The Wizards have forced this down to just 27% (which is somethign to watch, since during the season the Wizards allowed a 35% three point make percentage).
The true kicker though has been on the offensive glass. The Raptors this season were an average rebounding team cleaning up about 73% of opponents misses. This series though has been rough, as in the first game they allowed 19 of the 60 misses to get back as second chance opportunities, as well as 10 of 35 in the next game. All of these things together has pushed the Raptors into a corner, one of which they can still come back from, but its going to be much tougher going forward.
No comments:
Post a Comment