I came across a pair of ESPN articles the other day, both relating to the current "epidemic" of Tommy John surgeries. Its interesting, because one posted last year I believe has the answer for why we're seeing more and more pitchers opt for this rout. Matt Harvey wrote What we missed about Tommy John surgery, in which he details some new findings about the true success rate of the surgery and some potential reasons why we're seeing more players go under the knife. On that front, I actually think Jayson Starks' Tommy John Epidemic article hits the nail on the head. He discusses the fact that shoulder issues just a couple of season ago were the reason most pitchers spent time on the DL. However, the surgery payoff for those injuries has been pretty low. The oft discussed number though for fixing UCL injuries is 80%, so it makes sense more players would risk the surgery when the odds are that good of returning. Harvey does point out though that rate of players returning for 1 game is 80%, but those returning for 10 or more is just 67%. I think what we're seeing is the sort of revolution though that we've seen in the NFL in regards to ACL injuries. In the mid 90s an ACL tear was career ending. Today there is a 96% recovery rate.
The most interesting part though from Harvey's piece is the interviews with youth coaches and parents, an astoundingly large percentage who felt preemptive surgery was a good idea. That the surgery would somehow bring an uptick in velocity is beyond me. Harvey shows for the most part velocity drops a little (or is at best not significantly worse). This mindset that this injury is going to happen, and so you might as well do the surgery I think is putting pitchers at risk going forward. At the youth levels guys should not be throwing curves, they should instead be working on correct pitching mechanics and strengthening the major muscles. If this is a sign of things to come, its going to cause a talent drop in baseball, as we've seen largely in the NBA.
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