Friday, July 7, 2017

Way too early NCAAF Rankings

Its the start of July, and that means we are entering a real dead period for football in general.  NFL OTAs are all finished, and college players are basically just working out.  Not much news to post.  But that means its the perfect time for a bunch of predictions and rankings for teams.  Using my trusted prediction formula, I simulated the entire college football season 8000 times to build up a consensus of where teams will end up finishing.  Lets take a look



Looks a whole lot like the typical college blue bloods continuing to be good.  The program is pretty well assured we will see the return of 3 of the 4 teams that have been to the dance before appearing again.  Auburn s a team that jumps out as a "What are they doing here?" team.  The Tigers though have recruited at an elite level again the last two years, and return one of the most experienced squads in the Nation.  I do highly doubt that the Playoff Committee will accept two teams from the same division into the playoffs, so TCU is likely out as well.  That leaves USC as getting the nod, a return to their former glory and one that Vegas thinks is pretty darn possible.  

Some other bits of note is the continued hate from the program towards Clemson.  The program has never liked the Tigers from the Palmetto State, and sees their floor as possibly being one of the worst in the country.  Their ceiling is also pretty high though, landing them a potential Top 10 spot.  This year the down bias is driven almost exclusively by the high turnover they have at a lot of positions, and the fact that the program remembers what a season without Deshaun Watson was for the Tigers.  Oregon and Baylor both remain highly regarded, largely due to good recruiting and returning production both giving them boosts back to at least top 30 levels.  Rounding into the top 25 is Wazzu, who return a very experienced squad that has shown improvement each year Mike Leach has been the head coach.  They could very easily be 4-0 by the time USC comes to visit, so don't sleep on them getting some love early on. 

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