Wednesday, March 14, 2018

NCAA TOurnament Regional Predictions

Another round of March Madness is upon us.  I've got charts for each team's chances to advance to the Final Four for their region.

Out of the East its no surprise Villanova has the best chance to advance.  They've been the programs top team almost all year and they dominated conference opponents all season.  They do face some steep challenges in WVU or Wichita State, both teams that rank in Ken Po's top 25.  They also have to deal with Purdue possibly, but the Wildcats should make it to another Final Four.

KU is the 1 seed, but an uneven season has them with just a 9.6% chance to reach the Final Four in the region.  The program still loves Auburn despite tehir late season struggles, but I am pretty confident Duke can get past Michigan State and get to the Final Four here, largely due to their ability to not give up freebies.  Just 22% of opponents Field Goals generate a free throw attempt, second best in the nation.

Virginia is an overwhelming favorite, but that is in danger thanks to an injury to Deandre Hunter should have expectations tempered some.  Virginia is the slowest tempo school in the nation, so losing their fourth best scorer is going to chip away at that facade.  If they stumble, Cincinnati has a good chance to advance thanks to Tennessee being the best team in their half of the bracket. 

Xavier has possibly the smoothest chance to get to the Final Four, but they'll face a tough matchup against UNC.The Tar Heels clean up the offensive glass, and are a seasoned team.  Xavier does rank 32nd in FT/FGA, and they don't give up freebies ranking 12th at just 24.8%.  Ohio State is a popular pick to get upset early, but the Buckeyes are one of the best shooting teams in the country (55% on all 2 point attempts).  Look for them to possibly be the best upset chance against Xavier.

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