NBA Finals Predictions

The NBA Finals are back with the same match up for a third year in a row.  Color me a bit unexcited as really the worst Cavs team now matches up against the same basic Warriors team from last year. 

Warriors win 67% of the time in 6 games

The program really does not give the Cavs much of a chance here.  Sure, they'll likely steal a couple because Lebron will do Lebron things, but that's pretty much it.  The Cavs have had a couple of players step up at different times throughout these playoffs, but its been the unmitigated hero ball of Lebron that has salvaged what should have been a wrecked season. 

The Warriors will likely try to keep up the pace that theyve run at this post season, averaging almost 100 possessions a game.  The Cavs have been a little bit better than the Warriors in transition this playoffs, posting a 131 ORtg, but noone has been better than the Warriors at defending those shots, which tilts it back to the Warriors favor.  The biggest struggle for the Cavs will be if their Guards can match up.  The Warriors guards have had the best Ast-Turonver Ratio so far these playoffs, and the Cavs guards are posting a pretty meh 107 Drtg for their own. 

NBA PLayoffs: Conference Finals

Already to the Conference Finals after what ended up being a bit of a set of blowouts.  In the Wets, the Jazz and Rockets both cruised through their series against the upstart Jazz and Pelicans.  The Celtics downed their own upstart in the Sixers, while the Cavs demolished the Raptors, who played terribly in transition.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

Rockets win Series 66% of the time in 6 games

Can the Rockets get over their hump?  Can they stop us from having a third straight Cavs-Warriors finals?  The question in this series is likely to be who can get that extra stop on defense.  So far, The Warriors have been a bit better in defensive efficiency, posting the only sub 100 defensive rating in these playoffs.  The Warriors offense has been a step off in efficiency, but thats with a banged up Steph Curry.  If he can get back to his usual self (he's about 5% fewer 3s, and about 4 points off his PER form last year) it will be very hard for the Rockets.  But, he has been banged up.  And James Harden so far has been a killer, with a 55% TS rate, and just a 10% turnover rate.  

 

Boston Celtics vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavs win Series 54% of the time in 7 games

 I didn't think the Cavs had a chance to advance this year.  But now, they've gotten rested and have a good chance to get to another Finals.  The biggest change in this last series besides the Raptors inability to convert in transition was the rest of the starters play.  Noone shot under 55% TS, and they all had a net rating of over 14.  That took the full pull off Lebron, and the team looked ready to make a run.  The Celtics though will give them a run.  They stymied the Sixers young core, and did it by shooting at 56.3% TS, and by running at a slightly higher pace.  Jaylen Brown has been good in these playoffs to help lead the team, kepeing his turnover rate to just 8% while shooitng at 57.8%.

What happened to Toronto?

After what was a grueling 7 game series for the Cavs to open against the Pacers, Lebron James said he was too tired to even think about the Raptors.  The Cavs had been harried and outside of Lebron carrying the team for 7 games had looked like a team contending for the first overall pick rather than a championship.

So, when the series started against the Raptors, I was confident this was Toronto's year. But after four games, two of them basically non competitive from the Raptors, Lebron and company are heading back to the Eastern Conference finals and now get some much needed rest.  The question is, what happened to the Raptors?  In games 1 and 3 they were actually more efficient shooters than the Cavs, but couldn't win those tight games. 

The biggest issue was overall defensive efficiency.  During the regular season, the Raptors posted a top five DRtg, 103.4.  Against the Cavs though, they got torched to the tune of a 121.5 rating.  That's the worst for any series so far in these playoffs.  While the Raptors were efficient shooters, the Cavs hit just about everything they wanted outside of game one, posting above 60% true shooting rates and high 50s.

It didn't help either that the Raptors pair of All Star caliber guards and Fred Vanfleet were brutalized a bit by the Cavs back court.  Demar and Lowry combined to shoot just 49% this series, with them providing a -24 +/-.  You cant win series when your stars are being out dueled by JR Smith and George Hill. The fact that the Raptors front court also provided -15 as well ended any chance they had to win the series.  

The biggest factor though was in how effective team's were in transition.  The Raptors had 59 attempts when the shot clock was between 18-22 seconds, the fast break area.  They made 34 of those field goals, including 8 threes.  The Cavs however had just 38 attempts, but made 27 of them and hit 7 threes.  If the Raptors had been just a  little more efficient there, this series is a completely different story for them.The Raptors weren't the fastest team in the elague in termsof pace, but the games slowed down in this series, hitting about 90 possessions or so.  That favored the Cavs and Lebron who were coming off a long series.  The Raptors needed to push and hit shots in transition to make the Cavs work, and wear them down even more. 

Overall this is likely the end for this iteration of the Raptors.  They have a lot of holes, especially in the front court where they will need to find some way of getting more production to help Rozen and Lowry.  Its too bad that this was their best chance yet to escape the Cavs, and the couldn't.

Fantasy Flight Games Hyper Space Report: Wild Speculation

SO Fantasy Flight Games has been tempting us with a big news report for all of their Star Wars properties before they kick off the World's events for those games.  The announcement two weeks beforehand has left a lot of time for what they're going actually be delivering for the games, and whether or not its going to be the "Something Big" they've been promising Armada players since GenCon last year. 

I've got a few guesses as to what FFG has up their sleeve for Armada, Legion and Imperial Assault.  I haven't played X-Wing in anything more than a dust off game with friends or anything more from Destiny than the original starter boxes, so I don't really have any pulse on the direction of those games.

Legion

I think after the deluge of info FFG has had for Legion this will be a small announcement for available products.  Likely the next Imperial Commander and their SPecial Forces, as well as with the announcement today of the organized play layout a rules reference update.  I'm going to guess the next commander will either be is going to be either Wulf Yularen, Cassius Tagge, or one of FFG's created properties like Kayn Somos.  Most of the best canon battles had nameless leaders and it focused on space battles.  Ground commanders are thin.  I also think they will wait a bit for Thrawn, since he is likely going to be a buffing commander like Veers.  The Scout Troopers are going to be the unit that gets revealed, since the FFG staff have all but actually spoiled it.

Armada

Armada is due for another wave announcement.  A lot of folks think it wil be an SSD, kicking off epic play for the game.  I am not so certain.  X-Wing epic play really has not generated much interest an the scale doesn't fit for Armada.  We already have 3x6 field.  Epic play requiring something like 6x6 or 6x12 would be impossible to find.  I think instead, its going to be something a little different.  I think we're getting a second campaign, one centered on the Death Star.  The time frame will begin around Rogue One and end with The battle of Yavin. I think it will incorporate more small scale and 500 point battles as both sides try to raid resources and the like. It will come with U-Wings and a few different ship variants for core and wave 1 ships.  With the changes to Gallant Haven and the continued low turnout for VSDs, some new variants could really energize these ships.

I have an outside guess that FFG will also raise the standard game point limit to 450 points. Some people think that will slow games down. I actually think it speeds it up, if you keep fighters capped. Squadrons take time in this game. Extra ships means more guns on targets and things go down faster.

Imperial Assault

I think the biggest announcement is coming for IA.  Theyll start with working through the latest Lothal announcement since we didnt get anything for skirmish spoiled yet.  Then a few new campaigns for the Heroes of the Alliance will be announced. The app has had several updates in the past couple months, including adding support for all hero packs. Then I believe the big news will drop: a new updated version 2.0. It will not include new map tiles, but instead will have several updated deployment cards for older units like regular storm troopers and Boba Fett. With Jabbas Realm shifting the power curve super high, these old units have been relegated to strictly campaign play.

All Properties
For all of their table top properties I think something big is brewing. They've started experimenting with Legion some of the different organized play campaigns. I think FFG could bring all their games together for something similar.  A massive galactic conquest. Maybe it runs for 2 months and stores act as planets. Different games score points for control of the store, or they fit a larger narrative.

This is all wild speculation of course. But it's fun to think of the future for these games I really love to play and obsess a bit about.