Super Bowl 53 Preview and Predictions

Super Bowl week is here, and we've got an excellent matchup to behold.  Its crazy to think Tom Brady lead the Pats in Super Bowl 36 against the Rams.  His foil for this game, Jared Goff,  was just in elementary school at the time of that game.  Much like how Bill Belichick has been coaching since before Sean Mcvay was born.  This could be the game that signals the changing of the guard if the Rams can pull it off, or it will be a last hurrah potentially for the venerable Pats. 

The Rams got the season off to a fast start, winning eight straight and then closing after their first loss on a 5-2 run.  There will be those that doubt they deserve to be here after a blatant missed call in the NFC championship game, but they;re wrong.  The Rams played excellent football all season, staying within the top 3 all season in the program power rankings.  They averaged 6.4 yards per play on offense, and scored 527 points.  Picking up 36.7 yards per drive is also no easy feat, a mark that put them 3rd in the league.  They also gained the most first downs of any team in the league this year.  The Rams are built for the modern NFL, an offensive juggernaut.  They've also had help as the season has gone on, with CJ Anderson providing a breath of fresh air as Todd Gurley has struggled with injuries through the playoffs.  The defense however has been a weak spot all season.  Giving up 6 yards per play and 32 yards per drive ranks them in the bottom third.  They've been a bit timely though, allowing scores on 38% of drives, good enough for 11th overall.

The Pats have been far more up and down this season.  Their defensive DVOA was ranked 24th in Variance, because when they were bad, they were awful.  As Vince Verhei notes at Footballoutsiders

As for New England's defense, when they were bad, they were fall-on-your-face awful. Their DVOA in these games would have been worst against the run, against the pass, and overall over the course of the season. They allowed 5.3 rushing yards per carry and 150.5 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks completed nearly 70 percent of their passes for 9.2 yards per throw with 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Keep in mind, those numbers were put up by Blake Bortles, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota, and Ryan Tannehill. The Patriots were especially putrid on first down, giving up 374 yards on 64 carries (a 5.8-yard average) while opponents completed 37 of 51 passes for 628 yards (73 percent completion rate, 12.3 yards per throw) with seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and only three sacks. 

 The Pats though to their credit, the Pats have overcome their obstacles.  Against likely the most prolific offense in the league this year, the Pats held the Chiefs to under 100 yards rushing in both contests and last week held them to fewer than 300 yards passing.  That defense has given up a lot of yards (5746) but has also been opportunistic, generating 28 turnovers.  Brady leads an offense that most of the season was fairly anemic, generating just 5.9 yards per play.  But the last 8 games have seen them generate at least 400 yards of offense 5 times, and pick up 20 first downs in all but one.

This game is going to be close.  The program gives the Rams a 58% chance to win, with a likely margin of 2.8.  The question here really is how effectively the Rams can get after the Pats defense.  It can be passed on, but they have to get it going early to sustain drives and keep Tom Brady from working against them.  If they cannot do that, look for the Pats to slowly eat up advantage and press a Rams run defense that has struggled quite a bit this year. 

NBA Power Rankings Jan 30th 2019

Does it really surprise anyone that the Jazz have moved up so far in the power rankings?  They're 11-3 this month, with the second best defensive rating.  The Jazz are going to be a thorn in the West's side this entire playoff season.  The Lakers however really need Lebron James back.  They rank 27th in Ortg since he's been gone, and they're turning the ball over on 16.3% of possessions.

Milwaukee	1
Golden State	2
Utah	3
Toronto	4
Boston	5
Denver	6
Oklahoma City	7
Indiana	8
Portland	9
Philadelphia	10
San Antonio	11
Houston	12
New Orleans	13
LA Clippers	14
Minnesota	15
Dallas	16
LA Lakers	17
Charlotte	18
Brooklyn	19
Miami	20
Sacramento	21
Memphis	22
Detroit	23
Orlando	24
Washington	25
Atlanta	26
New York	27
Phoenix	28
Chicago	29
Cleveland	30

Book Review: Empire of the Summer Moon

One of the bigger gaps in my knowledge is inside the Old West here in the US.  I have a vague knowledge of many of the bigger events, but its superficial at best.  When on a podcast then about a month ago they had the author on of a book detailing the Comanche People's interactions in the West, I thought this was a place to start filling in.  SC Gwynne weaves an incredible amount of information into a very easy to read novel that covers much of the recorded history of the Comanche Nation in Empire of the Summer Moon: Qanah Parker and the Rise and Fall of the Comanches.

The book begins with the brutal raid at a frontier homestead, a story that would play out over and over again as folks from the Eastern United States streamed West into the vast plains of Texas and Oklahoma.  There, Cynthia Ann Parker and several memebers of her family that survived were captured by the Comanches and taken for years.  Cynthia Anne would eventually integrate into Comanche life, with her son to play a larger role for the tribe in its waning years.  This story serves as a driver to the history Gwynne details thouroughly thotughout the book.  It is also I think the weakest part of the book, largely because outside a few sightings and then a chapter that describes her dreadful forced reintegration into her past culture, Cynthia Anne plays no role.

 But the history getting between her capture and eventual "release" is one of two clashing empires.  The COmanche had become the most powerful Plains tribe by virtue of the unmatched horesmanship and a penchant for fighting war's to the hilt.  Originally driven into Wyoming by other tribes, the Comanche essentially had disappeared before somehow obtaining some wayward ponies from the failing Spanish empire.  From there, they became the finest horsemen with nearly unmatched skill.  With these horses, they conquered and controlled lands from Wyoming to Mexico and as far East as Kansas and Oklahoma.  The book details how the Comanche essentially blunted the Spanish move into the US hinterland, and also kept the nation of Mexico from succeeding as well.  Their ability to travel vast distances (over 400 miles for a raid) was at the forefront of their power.  The book does an excellent job of detailing the back and forth battles that the Comanche fought with the US, and does a good job not to moralize either side.  It walks a fine line of describing a true battle of Empires, and the reasons why a peace could not be found between the adversaries.  

The later portion of the book follows Qanah Parker, Cynthia Anne's son.  He had escaped fromt he cavalry group that returned Cynthia to the US territory, and so continued his life as a COmanche.  He grew to be an esteemed war leader, and eventually after being defeated became an instrumental leader for the Tribe living on the reservation. 

Overall this is an enjoyable book with a lot of history packed in.  It paints a vivid picture of frontier life and life for the Comanche in throughout the 19th century, and all the changes that occurred.  The book can drag in a few spots, but overall it reads easily.  I woudl recommend it if you are interested at all in the frontier West.

NBA Predictions for Jan 28th to Feb 3rd 2019

Another week is upon us and it starts off with several good games.  I think the Nuggets can clean up against the flailing Grizz a bit easier than the program does, but the Pacers and Warriors should be good.  We also get the Celtics and suddenly relevant Nets to round out the evening.  Later in the week the Jazz and Blazers play an important game, and the Thunder will travel to Boston. 

NBA Heat Map January 26th 2019

After a small hiatus thanks to some work conflicts, I'm getting back enough time to make sure the NBA Heat Map gets updated each week.

The Thunder this week went 4-0, thanks to a good shooting week that had their True Shooting % at 60%, and their pace was the fastest, at 105 possession per game.  The Clippers got 3 wins, but it might be a bit of a mirage with just some average numbers outside being able to clean up the offensive glass.  

A look at my Broncos Rookie Projections for 2018-2019

As with every action you take in life, its good to look back and see where you were right and wrong.  And so before I really start breaking down some players that I think the Broncos should look at this year, its time to look at my projections for last year's rookie class were.

The first point I need to make is that I made projections for every drafted player, and that was a severe miss on my part, because it excluded Phillip Lindsay.  The Colorado Buffaloes standout played an integral part for the Broncos, even bigger than I could have imagined. And that was a big miss.  This next year I'll try to make sure to include any standout UDFA through training camp as well in my projections.

Bradley Chubb: Projected 7 Sacks, 28 tackles      
Actual 12 Sacks, 41 tackles. 
Miss
Boy did I undersell Chubbs, potential for a breakout season this year. Chubb was everything the preseason hype expected and a bit more.  He slid fluidly into the run stopping role as well.  I'm quite excited to see what he does for an encore as he adjusts to the NFL.

Courtland Sutton: Projected 45 Catches, 620 Yards, 4 TDs    
Actual 42 Catches, 704 yards 4 TDS
Hit
I was pretty spot on here.  Sutton early in the season took advnatg of teams having to defend DT and Sanders, but kept his production up when trades and injury forced him into action.  He was one of my favorite players this season because he constantly just showed a drive to win despite some poor circumstances.  His poor catch rate I think improves this next year dramatically as a new offensive scheme I think helps him.

Royce Freeman: Projected 175 Carries, 780 Yards, 5 TDs
Actual 130 Carries 521 Yards 5 TDs
Middle
Royce had a solid season that ended up a bit marred by nagging injuries.  He was supplanted by the aforementioned Lindsay as a starter, and had several big runs but overall struggled with the leap to the NFL.  A new scheme I think will help, as well as getting healthy this offseason.

Isaac Yiadom: Projected 8 Passes Defensed, 2 Interceptions, 24 Tackles
Actual 3 Passes Defensed, 1 Int, 20 tackles
Miss
I was pretty high on the BC standout before the season, and thought he would be able to lock down that third spot thanks largely to his impressive size and strength.  However Yiadom was frequently burnt by opposing wideouts and struggled through most of the season.  However, he looked to be turning that corner by the end of the season, so hopefully this year he can shine

Josey Jewell: Projected 48 tackles
Actual 58 tackles
Hit
Jewell was a gem for this class.  His instinctual play and solid coverage capability was a huge asset to a team that saw Brandon Marshall miss a lot of game action again.  I'm quite excited to see him grow and I think he could supplant Davis (who had an excellent year himself) as the regular starter if Denver decided to add another stud ILB early in the draft this year.

DaSean Hamilton: Projected 25 Catches, 245 yards, 3 TDs
Actual 30 Catches, 243 yards, 2 TDs
Hit
Boy did I peg this one.  Hamilton had some injuries this year, but he played solid ball late in the year when he needed to step up.  With Sutton and Tim Patrick this receiver corps is very solid going forward.

Troy Fumagali: Projection6 Catches, 100 Yards
Actual IR 
Push
Fumigali will be one to look at this next year, but an injury sidelined him and let a few other Journeymen TEs shine.

Sam Jones: Projection Practice Squad
Actual On Team
Push
Jones never got much playing time this year, and really only saw the field because of injuries late in the year.  However he could make a push for one of the Guard spots if he takes to the tutelage of Munchak.

Kieshawn Bierria: Practice Squad
Actual On Team 
Miss
Bierria saw action as a special teamer and a few defensive snaps.  He'll likely reprise that role this next year.

David Williams: 25 carries, 80 yards, 1 TD
Actual Cut
Miss
With the appearance of Lindsay Williams never had a chance really.  He ended up with the Jags after they plucked him from the practice squad

NBA Power Rankings January 23rd 2019

The NBA picture overall continues to solidify itself, as the Bucks, Warriors and Raptors are clearly the class of the league right now.  The Celtics stick around after a rough 3 game skid that had everyone calling them out, by rattling off 4 wins starting with beating Toronto a week ago.  The Lakers without Lebron have struggled in a tough Western Conference and have now slipped out of the playoff picture.  The Jazz meanwhile slipped up yesterday, but had won 6 in a row before that to help solidify their sleeper status.

Milwaukee	1
Golden State	2
Toronto	3
Utah	4
Boston	5
Denver	6
Indiana	7
Oklahoma City	8
Portland	9
Philadelphia	10
San Antonio	11
New Orleans	12
Houston	13
LA Clippers	14
LA Lakers	15
Minnesota	16
Dallas	17
Charlotte	18
Brooklyn	19
Miami	20
Sacramento	21
Memphis	22
Detroit	23
Washington	24
Orlando	25
New York	26
Atlanta	27
Phoenix	28
Chicago	29
Cleveland	30

Keyforge Deck Analyis: Keekhling, the Crony of the Depths

Finally getting a chance after the holidays to get back into a normal gaming schedule.Which has meant lately quite a bit more Keyforge.  I've still been laying a lot of The Terror that Purifies Togetherness, and it still continues to perform wonderfully.  But, I've added a few other decks, and this is one of them.

Keekhling, the Crony of the Depths
This is a creature heavy deck, featuring 20 creature cards, 11 actions, 3 artifacts and 2 upgrades.  This deck has a similar synergy between the Mars and Sanctum houses with Commander Remiel and Ulyq Megamouth helping to use creatures form other houses.  You could chain them together to be able to get 4 Aember on a turn when all four are out.  Mantle of the Zealot also lets you do some house cheating, getting a chance to trigger Stampede on an untamed turn to really fire things off. There is also a little ability to archive some cars with Mars, to try to help set up some bigger plays or protect a wounded creature to return later with Zyzzix the Many and Vezyma Thinkdrone.  

Overall though this deck does not play very well. The large number of creatures is a bit of an illusion since 15 of them have power 3 or less with little or no armor. It makes it very susceptible to board wipe effects. It also lacks any wipe effects of its own, besides  Qyxxlyx Plague Master which is limited to humans. It also hits a large chunk of your own creatures and kills most outright. Ammonia Clouds is similar that you'll end up removing most of your own pieces. It also lacks any real aember control for your opponent. No steals outside of stampede and only a couple captures. 

I have yet to win a game with this deck. It might work well against a deck that features less board presence so it's small creatures can't just get bullied or wiped.  There's a little ability to jump Aember from Untamed, but its just too little I think for this deck to be consistently a winner. 

NBA Picks for Jan 21st to January 27th 2019

A week full of  intersting games, as we see the Lakers and Golden State squaring off in what might be Lebron's return, and several other important matchups.

NFL Conference Champions Predictions 2019

Conference Championships are here and we've got a paire of great games.  While the Chiefs are heavily favored, the Pats did win the game earlier this year.  Can Brady pull off a little magic against a Chiefs D that has looked rejuvenated this season?  The Rams also face a tough task heading to New Orleans, needing to beat a Saints team that beat them already. 

NBA Power Rankings Jamuary 16th 2019

The Bucks continue to hang out at the top of the rankings, and the Nuggets take a fall after giving up a ridiculous first quarter to the Warriors.  The Jazz are on a 4 game win streak to move up a spot, while the Thunder posted an ugly, ugly loss to the hapless Hawks last night.   The East continues to be a top heavy conference, as they have three of the top five teams, but just just five of the top fifteen. 

Milwaukee	1
Golden State	2
Utah	3
Toronto	4
Boston	5
Oklahoma City	6
Denver	7
Indiana	8
Houston	9
Portland	10
San Antonio	11
New Orleans	12
LA Clippers	13
Philadelphia	14
LA Lakers	15
Dallas	16
Sacramento	17
Minnesota	18
Charlotte	19
Miami	20
Memphis	21
Brooklyn	22
Detroit	23
Orlando	24
Washington	25
Phoenix	26
Atlanta	27
New York	28
Chicago	29
Cleveland	30

NBA Predictions for Jan. 14th to the 20th 2019

Not as many games this week and a lot with serious blow out potential.  But we do get to see if the Nuggets getting healthy can let them get past Golden State, and if the Jazz start to blow out some lesser opponents like the Clippers. 

NFL Divisional Playoff Round Predictions 2019

After a whopping miss on everything last week, I felt a bit discouraged.  But it also took some crazy end game antics and Deshaun Watson having one of his worst games as a pro, so hopefully my luck evens out a bit this week.  Trying something a bit new this week as well, plots of the expected scoring distributions.  I'm going to mess with some of the axes a bit for next season, but for now each game is binned into rough 5 points.  Its a bit large so I put them after the jump.

NBA Power Rankings Jan 9th 2019

The Bucks remain atop the rankings, but things are starting to close up a bit here as the Celtics find a rhythm and the Raptors just keep winning.  Everyone seems to be pretty well clustered together in the West, making some Teams like the Jazz stand out nearer the top than their 9 seed currently place them, but they've played a tough schedule and play every game tight. 

Milwaukee	1
Boston	2
Golden State	3
Toronto	4
Denver	5
Oklahoma City	6
Utah	7
Indiana	8
San Antonio	9
LA Clippers	10
Houston	11
Portland	12
New Orleans	13
Philadelphia	14
LA Lakers	15
Minnesota	16
Dallas	17
Sacramento	18
Charlotte	19
Memphis	20
Miami	21
Brooklyn	22
Detroit	23
Orlando	24
Washington	25
Phoenix	26
New York	27
Chicago	28
Atlanta	29
Cleveland	30

Game Review: Unearth!

Our game group is rolling again now that the holidays are finished, and we started off the year with a gem of a game from Brotherwise Games, Unearth  Its difficult to classify the type of game, because it contains a little bit of everything in it.  Working placement, dice rolling, set collection and hand building.  The theme of the game though is clear.  You're in charge of a team of delvers, as they excavate ruins to help build your civilization.

Game play is fairly straight forward.  Each turn, you will be able to play one of your special Delver cards (examined more a bit later) and then pick a Ruins to excavate and roll one die on it.  Each Ruins card has a score that needs to be matched or exceeded before the winner can claim the ruin, and the player with the highest die on the RUins gets to claim it.  Other players who have a die on the card when it gets scored get to draw a Delver card for each die they have on the card.

This might sound like having the high roll is all that matters, but its not.  Each Ruins also starts out with a number of stones tokens on them, which a player can claim if they a 1, 2, or a 3.  These stones can then be arranged to build monuments, which either offer some special ability (like being able to draw delver cards even if you don't have a die at a finished Ruins) or victory points. Players will need 6 stones to complete a monument, with some having specific requirements (like 4 Red stones).  You build off your hex of stones as well, so placement of stones together can help you finish more monuments,

The Delver cards give you extra abilities during your turn.  Some will let you re-roll die on a card, while others let you roll extra die or increase a die face.  These cards really do add variety to the game, and allow the players some real strategic spots to be able to possibly win a Ruins they were trailing on or steal some stones they need to finish a particular monument.

The game gets scored via set collection.  The more ruins of the same color you're able to collect, the better the pont value for that set.  There are some bonuses for getting one ruins of each color as well.

Ruins with dice and our monument choices

Overall this game was a huge hit with our group.  Its deep enough that you will be challenged to find optimal plays and to track whats going on, but not so complex as to cause a lot of analysis paralysis.  Our turns went quickly and noone felt like they had to sit and think too hard, since most of it came down to planning to finish a Ruins or shooting to roll low to get a key stone.  The different monuments and overall mechanics of the dice rolling also lend to each game being pretty fresh, since its unlikely you'll get certain combinations time and time again. The Delver cards really help to insure players can be on an even footing as well, so the game does not snowball as I've seen too many set collecting games do.  And the hex stones for the monuments add in a bit of spatial reasoning to the game, so there really is something for everyone.  A definite good purchase if you can find it.

NBA Predictions Jan 7 to Jan 13th 2019

This week features some great games, with sadly the bets game in the West coming the same night as the College Football championship with the Nuggets traveling to Houston.  The East also has an early week match up to watch as the Pacers visit the Celtics.

NFL Wild Card Weekend Picks 2019

Here we are at Wildcard weekend.  All of the matchups shoudl be fun, with the home teams all reasonably favored.  The Cowboys are in the most trouble, and I think Id rather pick the Seahawks to advance here. 

NFL Power Rankings End of the Regular Season 2018-2019

We've hit the end of the regular season and its time now for a final look at how everyone stacked up.  The Steelers are the ebst team to have missed the playoffs, after just a frustrating finish to their season.  A team that seemed to well poised to be at the top just squandered too many opportunities.  The Cowboys won the NFC East but will likely be home dogs to the Seahawks as the program makes its picks. 

New Orleans Saints	1
Kansas City Chiefs	2
Los Angeles Rams	3
Baltimore Ravens	4
Chicago Bears	5
Los Angeles Chargers	6
New England Patriots	7
Houston Texans	8
Pittsburgh Steelers	9
Seattle Seahawks	10
Indianapolis Colts	11
Philadelphia Eagles	12
Carolina Panthers	13
Tennessee Titans	14
Dallas Cowboys	15
Minnesota Vikings	16
Atlanta Falcons	17
Cleveland Browns	18
Denver Broncos	19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	20
Green Bay Packers	21
Cincinnati Bengals	22
New York Giants	23
Detroit Lions	24
Jacksonville Jaguars	25
Washington Redskins	26
Buffalo Bills	27
San Francisco 49ers	28
New York Jets	29
Miami Dolphins	30
Oakland Raiders	31
Arizona Cardinals	32