Super Bowl Prediction 2019-2020 Season

The last week of the NFL is finally upon us.  We get a treat as two of the top offenses in the league this year square off, as Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs against Jimmy G and the Niners.

The Chiefs ranked 3rd overall in offensive DVOA this year, thanks to a 2nd ranked passing DVOA of 43.7%.  This is largely thanks to the magic of Mahomes, who had himself another excellent season in his second year starting.  Mahomes didn't do quite as well as he had last season while dealing with injuries, but he still completed 65% of his passes and threw only 5 Ints.  Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman combined to provide a big play element for the Chiefs, averaging 14.8 and 20.1 yards per catch respectively.  The team was highly efficient as well, averaging 6.2 plays per drive and 37.2 yards.   This efficiency was largely driven by the effectiveness of Travis Kelce, who lead the league in Effective Yards for a TE, and he would have ranked 7th for WRs as well.  That will be tested against a 49ers defense that allowed just 552 yards all season against opposing TEs.  It will also be key to see if the 49ers can keep up the immense pass rush they've been able to generate, with a 9.1% adjusted sack rate. 

The Niners offense is truly predicated on being able to run the ball effectively.  Despite ranking just 13th in rushing DVOA, the Niners ranked 2nd in yards and 1st in rushing TDs.  The three headed rushing attack of Mosert, COleman and Brieda has given teams toruble all season.  This rushing attack has also helped to make sure not to put too much stress on Garoppolo as the 49ers ranked 29th in passing attempts.  Jimmy though responded when called upon, completing almost 70% of his passes for 7..4 Net Yards per attempt, best fro 3rd in the league.  The Chiefs defense has not held up against the run over the season, as they allowed 4.82 Adjusted line yards per rush.  However, the Chiefs held down Derrick Henry in the title game, allowing just 69 yards on the ground to the bruising back.  The pass defense has also been very good all year, ranking 8th in yards surrendered and generating turnovers on almost 14% of opponent's drives.

Home Team	Home Team Win Chance	Away Team	Away Team Win Chance	Home Margin
Kansas City Chiefs	48.03	San Francisco 49ers	51.97	-0.4

Overall, this game is a toss up.  The Chief's offense poses huge matchup problems all across the field.  Can Richard Sherman and Jimmy Ward matchup with Hill, Kelce and Hardman?  Can Patrick Mahomes stay upright as he has this season against the ferocious 49ers front?  The Niners rushing attack will pressure the Chiefs as well. If the Niners front seven can force a few stops, I think the Niners can walk away the winners.  If not, I think the Chiefs will be able to force Jimmy G into some bad turnovers trying to press the attack.

Super Bowl 53 Preview and Predictions

Super Bowl week is here, and we've got an excellent matchup to behold.  Its crazy to think Tom Brady lead the Pats in Super Bowl 36 against the Rams.  His foil for this game, Jared Goff,  was just in elementary school at the time of that game.  Much like how Bill Belichick has been coaching since before Sean Mcvay was born.  This could be the game that signals the changing of the guard if the Rams can pull it off, or it will be a last hurrah potentially for the venerable Pats. 

The Rams got the season off to a fast start, winning eight straight and then closing after their first loss on a 5-2 run.  There will be those that doubt they deserve to be here after a blatant missed call in the NFC championship game, but they;re wrong.  The Rams played excellent football all season, staying within the top 3 all season in the program power rankings.  They averaged 6.4 yards per play on offense, and scored 527 points.  Picking up 36.7 yards per drive is also no easy feat, a mark that put them 3rd in the league.  They also gained the most first downs of any team in the league this year.  The Rams are built for the modern NFL, an offensive juggernaut.  They've also had help as the season has gone on, with CJ Anderson providing a breath of fresh air as Todd Gurley has struggled with injuries through the playoffs.  The defense however has been a weak spot all season.  Giving up 6 yards per play and 32 yards per drive ranks them in the bottom third.  They've been a bit timely though, allowing scores on 38% of drives, good enough for 11th overall.

The Pats have been far more up and down this season.  Their defensive DVOA was ranked 24th in Variance, because when they were bad, they were awful.  As Vince Verhei notes at Footballoutsiders

As for New England's defense, when they were bad, they were fall-on-your-face awful. Their DVOA in these games would have been worst against the run, against the pass, and overall over the course of the season. They allowed 5.3 rushing yards per carry and 150.5 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks completed nearly 70 percent of their passes for 9.2 yards per throw with 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Keep in mind, those numbers were put up by Blake Bortles, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota, and Ryan Tannehill. The Patriots were especially putrid on first down, giving up 374 yards on 64 carries (a 5.8-yard average) while opponents completed 37 of 51 passes for 628 yards (73 percent completion rate, 12.3 yards per throw) with seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and only three sacks. 

 The Pats though to their credit, the Pats have overcome their obstacles.  Against likely the most prolific offense in the league this year, the Pats held the Chiefs to under 100 yards rushing in both contests and last week held them to fewer than 300 yards passing.  That defense has given up a lot of yards (5746) but has also been opportunistic, generating 28 turnovers.  Brady leads an offense that most of the season was fairly anemic, generating just 5.9 yards per play.  But the last 8 games have seen them generate at least 400 yards of offense 5 times, and pick up 20 first downs in all but one.

This game is going to be close.  The program gives the Rams a 58% chance to win, with a likely margin of 2.8.  The question here really is how effectively the Rams can get after the Pats defense.  It can be passed on, but they have to get it going early to sustain drives and keep Tom Brady from working against them.  If they cannot do that, look for the Pats to slowly eat up advantage and press a Rams run defense that has struggled quite a bit this year. 

Super Bowl Wrap Up

Congrats to the Eagles on pouncing on a Pats team that looked vulnerable this year, and not letting go until the end of the game.  Neither defense was particularly steadfast yesterday, combining to stop just 4 drives short of gaining 50% of their potential yards.  One of them was likely the most key of the game, when Brandon Graham shoved the ball out of Tom Brady's hand with just over 2 minutes to go in the game.  Without that stop, the Eagles very likely lose this game.  Also, Nick Foles should get a huge amount of credit for this victory.  The Eagles backs had several big plays, but were largely inefficient on the day.  Foles completed 65% of his passes, and should have had more if Alshon Jeffrey doesn't lose the ball in the air and flip it to a Pats DB.  He threw into tight windows all day and only a couple of passes were not basically perfectly placed. 

One of the real turning points in the game that is tough to quantify was the loss of Brandin Cooks for the Pats.  The Eagles had been one of the best team's at defending the deep ball all season, but the Pats were able to get in 8 deep passing plays, of the 13 they attempted.  If Cooks had played more, that number could be higher.  It also likely would have opened up things for the Pats backs a bit more, since Malcolm Jenkins likely would not have been able to play short on them so often.  It should also be pointed out that Tom Brady looked off.  He hit a bunch of chunk plays (45% of total yards were deep passing plays), but for most of the early part of the game he threw behind receivers or overshot them.  The Eagles got some pressure but mostly later in the game. So this might just be the first true sign of father time catching up to him.

Super Bowl Predictions and Charts

It's super bowl week!  Our last real NFL game before the long dark time of the offseason.  We get one of the team's that before the season pretty much everyone expected to still be in the hunt at least, with the New England Patriots.  Tom Brady has somehow staved off father time for one more year, and despite the ongoing potential drama, the Pats still were able to roll over opponents by 162 total points.  The 2nd quarter is where they did most of they work, basically doubling up on their opponents then.

The other team up through week 14 was thought to be the easy favorite, but that was before the Eagles lost Carson Wentz to an ACL tear.  The Eagles though have been resilient,  and with Nick Foles leading them have been able to get past every challenge so far.  They also in a coincidence were +162 points this year, but they were much more explosive early in the season.

Can you spot when Carson Wentz went down?  That is what is driving the Eagles trend line down, otherwise they were much better than they have been.  Last week's explosion is a bit closer to what we should be expecting from that team, and it might be what we could see if this is Foles finding a rhythm in the Doug Pederson offense.  The Pats have had a little more up and down, but were more within their 95% confidence interval all season.  Slow and steady, they flipped the field consistently. 

The Pats Defense underwent probably the biggest swing from the start to the end of the year of any team.  There were still a lot of bumps but it solidified by consistent play (8th best by Footballoutsiders) and limiting deep passing plays (11th best DVOA against the pass, 11.6%).  The Eagles defense is based upon pressure,  and shutting down run games.  They gave up just 2.99 adjusted line yards this year, by far the best.

One of the biggest storylines in this games in the QB battle, Nick Foles vs Tom Brady.  It has not been a great year so far for Foles, and he looked very good against the Vikings last week.  But his completion percentage so far is still well below 60%, and he has not hit a ton of big plays.  But, he has keep the interceptions and sacks down to keep the offense on schedule.

Player	Completion Percentage	TD%	Int%	Yards per Attempt	Adjusted Yards Per Attempt	Yards per Completion	Net Yards Per Attempt	Adj. Net Yards Per Attempt	Sack%
Nick Foles	56.4	5	2	5.3	5.4	9.4	4.65	4.75	4.7
Tom Brady	66.3	5.5	1.4	7.9	8.4	11.9	7.1	7.56	5.7

Overall, I dont think the Eagles have any room for error.  The Jags played one of the best first halves of football they could, and a couple key mistakes let the Pats walk away in that game.  Both teams utilize a lot of tight ends passes and running backs swings, while both have good deep threats.  The Pats will be at a disadvantage though with Gronk still facing some lingering concussion issues, and the fact that Tom has been sacked quite a bit this year.  The Eagles run D though might be a little understaffed in Timmy Jernigan can't get over his illness.  Its going to be a close game I think, but the Pats pull it out with an average margin of 3.2, with a 63% chance to win.