Super Bowl 53 Preview and Predictions

Super Bowl week is here, and we've got an excellent matchup to behold.  Its crazy to think Tom Brady lead the Pats in Super Bowl 36 against the Rams.  His foil for this game, Jared Goff,  was just in elementary school at the time of that game.  Much like how Bill Belichick has been coaching since before Sean Mcvay was born.  This could be the game that signals the changing of the guard if the Rams can pull it off, or it will be a last hurrah potentially for the venerable Pats. 

The Rams got the season off to a fast start, winning eight straight and then closing after their first loss on a 5-2 run.  There will be those that doubt they deserve to be here after a blatant missed call in the NFC championship game, but they;re wrong.  The Rams played excellent football all season, staying within the top 3 all season in the program power rankings.  They averaged 6.4 yards per play on offense, and scored 527 points.  Picking up 36.7 yards per drive is also no easy feat, a mark that put them 3rd in the league.  They also gained the most first downs of any team in the league this year.  The Rams are built for the modern NFL, an offensive juggernaut.  They've also had help as the season has gone on, with CJ Anderson providing a breath of fresh air as Todd Gurley has struggled with injuries through the playoffs.  The defense however has been a weak spot all season.  Giving up 6 yards per play and 32 yards per drive ranks them in the bottom third.  They've been a bit timely though, allowing scores on 38% of drives, good enough for 11th overall.

The Pats have been far more up and down this season.  Their defensive DVOA was ranked 24th in Variance, because when they were bad, they were awful.  As Vince Verhei notes at Footballoutsiders

As for New England's defense, when they were bad, they were fall-on-your-face awful. Their DVOA in these games would have been worst against the run, against the pass, and overall over the course of the season. They allowed 5.3 rushing yards per carry and 150.5 yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks completed nearly 70 percent of their passes for 9.2 yards per throw with 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Keep in mind, those numbers were put up by Blake Bortles, Matthew Stafford, Marcus Mariota, and Ryan Tannehill. The Patriots were especially putrid on first down, giving up 374 yards on 64 carries (a 5.8-yard average) while opponents completed 37 of 51 passes for 628 yards (73 percent completion rate, 12.3 yards per throw) with seven touchdowns, no interceptions, and only three sacks. 

 The Pats though to their credit, the Pats have overcome their obstacles.  Against likely the most prolific offense in the league this year, the Pats held the Chiefs to under 100 yards rushing in both contests and last week held them to fewer than 300 yards passing.  That defense has given up a lot of yards (5746) but has also been opportunistic, generating 28 turnovers.  Brady leads an offense that most of the season was fairly anemic, generating just 5.9 yards per play.  But the last 8 games have seen them generate at least 400 yards of offense 5 times, and pick up 20 first downs in all but one.

This game is going to be close.  The program gives the Rams a 58% chance to win, with a likely margin of 2.8.  The question here really is how effectively the Rams can get after the Pats defense.  It can be passed on, but they have to get it going early to sustain drives and keep Tom Brady from working against them.  If they cannot do that, look for the Pats to slowly eat up advantage and press a Rams run defense that has struggled quite a bit this year.